In the last two months after the Karnataka loss, where BJP suffered a humiliating defeat at the hand of Congress, the saffron face a baffling scenario – the BJP election campaign was led by PM Narendra Modi the magnanimous one, while the Congress campaign was led by a much younger, lesser experienced, Rahul Gandhi, which BJP’s leaders love to call ‘’pappu” the ignorant one. Dilemma and desperation are thus obvious.

It is because of this reason, there has been much talk about cabinet reshuffle, reshuffle in the party leadership’s responsibility and tweaking organisational setup, apart from finding a new strategy for the party for the forthcoming elections, especially at a time when opposition political parties have agreed to unite to offer one-on-one contest to BJP in majority of Lok Sabha seats in the country.

Though BJP has been hoping that opposition unity would ultimately fail at seat sharing stage and on the question of leadership, they are not leaving any stone unturned on their part, as the high-level meeting at PM Modi’s residence suggests. Despite failure of communal polarisation in Karnataka, the BJP leaders across the country has been trying to keep the political cauldron boiling by raising communal issues which included bringing out a Universal Civil Code (UCC) in the country.

PM Narendra Modi himself has raised the pitch on UCC just before he held the meeting of top BJP leaders. Bringing UCC has been BJP’s one of the aims that has even promised in its election manifestos earlier, but the party has not done much in this regard since they had other more burning issues in hand to be tackled first like construction of Ram Mandir at Ayodhya and abrogation of Article 370. Ram Mandir is likely to be built before the Lok Sabha election and Article 370 has already done away with. BJP has now no emotional issue to bet on, though they have been trying to create around Gyanvapi-Kashivishwanath for quite some time, which is yet a non-starter in political sense of the term.

Just before 2019, had there no Pulwama attack and subsequent jingoism against Pakistan and communal campaign against Muslim communities in the name of Muslim terrorism, the BJP would have lost the Lok Sabha poll, as was indicated by just concluded Vidhan Sabha elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, that had seen the rise of the Congress. However, in Lok Sabha poll held within few months reversed the Congress gain in favour of the BJP, thanks to communal polarisation of majority of Hindus in favour of the BJP.

Since then, the BJP has been misusing the Central investigating agencies, as it has been alleged by the opposition; registering cases under sedition law to stifle all opposing voices including of leaders of opposition, agitating groups against government policies, journalists, and media outlets; implementing electoral bond scheme to economically strengthened the BJP and weakening other political parties; and blocking opposition’s financial resources. States ruled by opposition have been subjected to interference in governance to make them appear non-performing. All these steps have been controversial and even led to litigation in the Supreme Court of India, the BJP has been exposed of its intentions in the eyes of the people.

Supreme Court of India has in its part made scathing remarks against the Modi government in several cases. It has stopped the application of sedition law for the time being, but Modi government has got the Law Commission of India to recommend even more stringent sedition law, and the Monsoon session may see introduction of such legislation.

As for UCC, Modi government had got another recommendation by the Law Commission to have one in the country. PM Modi’s raising the pitch over UCC indicates that it would be brought before election as a means of communal polarisation during the forthcoming state and Lok Sabha elections.

The high-level meeting of top BJP leaders at PM Modi’s residence have discussed several issues of political importance, which included, according to the sources, the means of communal polarisation strategy, and obviously, the most important one in UCC.

There was no official word on the outcome of the meeting, but sources said that PM Modi, Minister of Home Amit Shah, Central BJP president JP Nadda, and BJP general secretary (organisation) B L Santosh had deliberated over a range of organisation and political issues, including anti-incumbency factors that may sabotage BJP’s poll prospects.

It is well known fact that BJP usually conduct such exercises before elections to find out non-performers in the government and in the party organisation and then those are replaced to overcome anti-incumbency. Since, the BJP is facing an unprecedented anti-incumbency across the country, the party needs an overhauling both at government and party level, both at Centre and in the states where it is a ruling party. BJP is trying to devise a careful strategy to do this so that it may not precipitate infightings that is prevailing in almost all states.

The relationship between the BJP and the RSS leadership is also under strain, since PM Modi has emerged too strong to be handled by the RSS. Though the Hindu majoritarian politics would continue cementing their differences, the dissentions within the party is growing over a range of issues including the feeling among hard-core activists and leaders who are feeling taken for granted while turncoats from other political parties getting precedence.

PM Modi has asked the BJP leaders and ministers present in the meeting to prioritise their activities in the light of forthcoming elections, and has reportedly given specific instructions to focus on vote catching strategies such as implementing schemes for poor and middle-class people and informing the people about the achievement of the Centre. One of the strategies suggested in the meeting, the sources said, was enhancing engagement of the party officials, the elected MP’s and MLA’s, and the ministers in their respective constituencies.

However, all were easier said than done, since the BJP seems to have still been searching for an effective new strategy, since all the old strategies that were discussed have failed in the Karnataka and the party could not retain its power. Devising a new strategy will remain a riddle for months to come, especially until the result of the Vidhan Sabha election of states scheduled to be held later in 2023, which may hint at the direction of politics for the Lok Sabha election 2024.

The present political challenge before the BJP is overcoming the anti-incumbency and the potential threat of the united opposition. Search for emotional communal issues is going on along with testing them on the ground level by raising pitch over them one-by-one. BJP is not getting overwhelming response by the majority Hindu voters this time, especially on account of public sufferings due to lack of livelihood and too much economic hardships, which remains the biggest challenge for the party. The search is still on for the perfect combination of issues which can bring wins to the party in next Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)