In part, Bangladesh can be blamed for trying too hard and making its own position more difficult. During the acrimonious pre-election phase, the AL finds the domestic situation unusually challenging of late: owing to reasons well beyond its control, there is raging inflation at home. Prices of wheat, rice, eggs and veggies like tomatoes, chillies and onions are shooting through the proverbial roof. Ditto power, fertiliser and transport costs.

In contrast, incomes and investments are down. For the first time in years, Bangladesh’s forex reserves, always a strong pillar of its economy, hover around $30 billion or less. After enjoying years of relative peace and prosperity the ruling AL has to face the music. First the post Covid pandemic economic downturn played havoc with the domestic economy while the outbreak of the Ukraine war proved to be the last straw. It hardly helps to point out the truth: the AL had nothing to do with any of this. The exchange value of national currency taka remains very low compared to US dollar

Diplomatically, despite earnest efforts made by the ruling establishment to offset mounting US/EU-led pressure to oversee the coming elections, there is increasing support for the opposition. US imposed sanctions are in place despite strong protests from Dhaka, with no signs of relief soon.

Feisty as ever, Ms. Hasina had hit out at the Western bloc, alleging that it wanted to see her and the AL Government out. Not to worry, Bangladesh would follow its own independent policies and opt for closer ties with other countries, she had declared.

Senior AL leaders too, despite deepening anxieties about the deteriorating ties with the West, were confident about steering their country out of troubled waters, , banking on the support of major neighbours India, China and Russia.

Leaders from Moscow and Beijing stood by Dhaka in its hour of need, flaying the US-led West for actively interfering with its domestic political process and electioneering. The West Bloc countered this by pointing to allegations against the AL for its alleged HR violations over the years.

Sparing no efforts, Mrs Hasina had personally lobbied for an immediate BRICS membership for Bangladesh, meeting incumbent Chair South African president Cyril Ramaphosa himself in Switzerland earlier this year. His response, it had been reported, was positive. Again, Bangladesh had already joined the new BRICS Development bank in 2021, to seek assistance for a proposed $670 million dollar development package. The signs were encouraging.

Prior to the BRICS summit at Johannesburg, altogether 23 countries were known to have applied for full membership. As the situation looked good for Bangladesh, Mrs Hasina went to South Africa According to AL sources, she delivered a speech at an official gathering arranged by Friends of BRICS countries, mainly including representatives of nations that were keen to become part of the new international grouping.

During the proceedings, she met Mr Ramaphosa again and also spoke briefly to Chinese Premier Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the ongoing conference.

Both leaders, according to Dhaka-based media reports, were positive about Bangladesh’s prospects about joining BRICS. Not to take chances, Mrs Hasina also met Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi.

As for Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was present. He is supposed to be visiting Bangladesh in the next few days to discuss expanding bilateral ties. Incidentally, this will be the first time that a Russian Foreign Minister willvisit Bangladesh, an event that carries its own special diplomatic significance.

Interestingly, reports from the Chinese or other media did not appear to be as positive about Bangladesh’s proposed membership as accounts carried in most Dhaka-based dailies revealed. While reporting mutual goodwill and support for Bangladesh as a sovereign emerging economy within BRICS leadership and the larger international community, there was no specific reference as to whether it was about to be immediately admitted to the five member club. There was a message to the west however, not to interfere in the domestic politics/affairs of Bangladesh.

Judging by the sombre tenor and tone of Dhaka-based media analysts, the setback will rankle for some time. Most former Bangladeshi diplomats and analysts are wondering, what went wrong. There can be no question about the international image of Bangladesh as a promising moderate Islamic country, run rather in the more liberal Indonesia/Malaysia model of governance unlike Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Quite apart from the personal heartbreak for Prime Minister Hasina, there also looms the larger diplomatic/political question: clearly, Bangladesh was also seeking to signal to the Western Bloc of nations that it could not be isolated as a country merely because G/7 countries disapprove of its domestic or foreign policies. The world had become multi polar and Asian and African countries could not be compelled in 2023 by more developed nations to take political decisions to please others.

It seems Bangladesh will have to try harder to gain an entry into BRICS and its way ahead would be more difficult than it had anticipated. But there is little likelihood that the AL and like-minded parties would consider abandoning what they stress as their fundamental goals : friendship with all, hostility towards none.

Meanwhile, Dhaka concedes that its setback in Johannesburg would please the pro West lobby and its unsympathetic opposition no end, in the crucial election year. (IPA Service)