It does not require too much of cerebral strain to decode the reason for her U-turn. A closer look at what she said on Monday unravels the truth, which made her to retract. The reason cited by her does disservice to even her own dalit community. She was trying to hide behind the sneer of “not proper treatment” by the opposition parties. She said: “We will not be a part of any alliance and will contest alone. This is because alliance politics doesn’t suit us. The BSP will contest alone with the support of the Dalit, tribal, backward and minority communities.” She added: “According to our analysis, while we have transferred our traditional votes to the candidates of our allies in previous elections, they didn’t reciprocate.”

Quite intriguing she could realise the vulnerability of alliance only by the afternoon, after getting a call from a senior BJP minister in the Modi cabinet. The minister, sources maintain, cautioned her against once again dragging her in the NOIDA scam. In the scam, the name of her brother had also allegedly figured. The ED action was in connection with a money-laundering case registered in 2016. BSP chief was also under scrutiny with the agency conducting searches at seven premises of senior officials with regard to building of memorials to Dalit icons and illegal sand-mining.

ED claims that the irregularities in procuring building material led to loss of over Rs 111 crore to the exchequer. Ambedkar Smarak Parivartan Sthal, Manyavar Smarak Sthal, Gautambuddha Upvan, Eco Park, Noida Ambedkar Park and Ramabai Ambedkar Smriti Upvan constructed during the BSP regime are under the scanner. The memorials were intended as a mark of respect to Dalit icons.

The report also stated that Rs 1,410 crore was siphoned off by officials out of Rs 4,148 crore sanctioned by the then state government for the construction of the memorials. The construction was done by UPRNN — a unit of the PWD and Lucknow Development Authority. The engineers were also questioned about purchases that were made directly from suppliers without following the laid-down procedure of tendering. Mining leases were awarded to individuals in violation of norms.

She claims to be a Dalit leader, but not through her own efforts. Dalit icon Kanshi Ram put that crown on her head and projected her as the undisputed Dalit leader. She did not have to go through the arduous process of attaining leadership role through hard ground work. It is quite significant till Kanshi Ram was alive, she did not have to face much challenge. But she could not sustain when she was left to fend for herself.

It was during this phase she also got alienated from her support base and Dalits started gradually moving away from her. Mayawati, who had a 22 per cent vote share in 2017, is now left with 12 per cent vote share in 2022, mainly from Jatavs; her worst performance since 2017, when she won 19 seats. In 2019, she won 10 Lok Sabha seats in alliance with the SP.

Resentment against Mayawati amongst the Dalits has spread. For over two decades, the community had given unflinching support to Mayawati, but not anymore. A Dalit leader said: “There was a time when we didn’t even welcome leaders of other parties in our colonies, but unemployment, back-breaking price rise, and a threat to the reservation system in current times have forced us to listen to what other leaders have to say”.

For Mayawati, material gains and enjoying political power attained top priorities. With the Dalits now maintaining distance from BSP, she embarked on the path of enticing the Brahmins. It is an open secret that Dalits even today continue to suffer humiliation and repression at the hands of the upper caste Rajputs and Brahmins. Instead of reaching out to them at the grass root level and empowering them, she was weaving a caste combination to win the elections.

It is an open secret that during the BJP rule of Yogi Adityanath, the Dalits have had to suffer a lot. Crimes against Dalit women have substantially increased. But Mayawati has been maintaining deafening silence. Dalits complain: “Behenji (Mayawati) has forgotten her loyal supporters. There is no house here where she has not had food. But now, it seems she has deserted us. Neither she nor her leaders come to visit us.” Dalit leaders like, former IG SR Darapuri and Bhim Sena chief Azad had to suffer, but she did not raise her voice against it.

The Dalit youths are denied jobs and other facilities. Dalit leaders complain that government jobs for their community have significantly decreased. They say: “Earlier, the reservation system allowed many from our community to secure Group C and D jobs in the state government. Most of those jobs are now outsourced to private entities by the state government. We believe that such outsourcing is an indirect way to end the reservation system.” But Mayawati has refused to react.

Mayawati’s BSP has to face the accusation of being the B team of BJP. On Many occasions she refuted but could not come out with convincing facts to assert her denial. Her softness towards the BJP is an open secret. Only last year in two by-elections, she did not field her candidate in Rampur to avoid splitting the Dalit vote, making it a straight face-off between the BJP and the SP. In Azamgarh, she fielded a Muslim candidate, Guddu Jamali, purely aimed at splitting the SP’s Muslim vote, and benefitting BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ of the OBC Yadav community.

Mayawati continues to claim she’s a Dalit leader. But ironically she is not aware of the changing dynamics of the economic hardships facing the community and also gauge the political mood and understanding of Dalits. Moreover, like other OBC communities, a neo-rich class, a creamy layer has emerged within the Dalits. They are no more approving of the traditional form of Dalit politics. They have shifted their allegiance to the BJP. This is clearly manifest in a number of prominent Dalit leaders who were once with Mayawati, joining the BJP. Some of them are even ministers. Their joining BJP has simply added to the woes of Mayawati.

While announcing her decision not to join INDIA bloc, she made scathing attack on the opposition leaders. Mayawati appears to be supporting the BJP at the cost of her own political base. Although she accused the BJP governments of cheating the poor. “While the BJP government is expected to create job opportunities for youths, it is making poor people a slave of free foodgrains,” she maintained a low pitch in her criticism.

Mayawati has also been invited to the Ram temple consecration ceremony in Ayodhya on January 22, though she is yet to decide whether to attend the event. “I thank them for sending me the invitation. I may go there if I am free but I have not decided yet because I am busy with party work,” the sources maintain that she may amend her decision and prefer to attend the consecration. She told the newspersons: “We are not opposing the Ayodhya programme, we welcome it. We will also welcome any move to construct a Babri masjid there”.

In the backdrop of her U-turn, it is imminent that her immediate aim is to weaken the INDIA bloc, especially SP. She is also trying to make the Dalits believe that Dalit-Muslim unity is reality, that Muslims are drifting away from the SP notwithstanding her action to suspend party MP Danish Ali for extending support to TMC MP Mahua Moitra. Once again, she has failed to read the minds of the Muslims. They are yet to forget the ill-treatment meted by her to Danish. It was perceived as an action to please Modi. Significantly, on Sunday, Danish Ali joined Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, saying he would be failing in his duty as a politician if he did not participate in the "biggest drive for unity and justice". He has been actively joining opposition ranks in attacking the BJP.

Dalits strongly feel that Mayawati lacks the determination to fight central agencies and the BJP juggernaut. She has already promoted her family members to crucial posts in the BSP as part of her succession plan. They also nurse the view that BSP has discarded the ideological line of Kanshi Ram and the leadership is more interested in its personal promotion.

Mayawati is aware that BSP’s shrinking base has actually helped the BJP. The other Dalit groups who benefited from Modi welfarism deserted the BSP in the absence of Mayawati’s lack of vocal commitment on Dalit issues and the BJP-RSS’s aggressive approach to woo them. Many of the big Dalit leaders, such as Lalji Verma, Ram Achal Rajbhar and Indrajit Saroj, deserted the BSP to join SP. But unfortunately, she is not even trying to bring back the old glory.

Rural Uttar Pradesh continues to witness sharp class conflict between the Dalits and intermediate castes, Yadavs, Jats and others, as the Dalits are being financially deprived, but Mayawati maintains silence. Dalits never voted for parties led by agrarian castes like Yadavs or Jats. Initially, Dalits voted for the Congress, and then switched to the BSP, while agrarian castes consolidated behind leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Charan Singh.

A close look at the election results reveals that majority of seats that the BSP wins in the Hindi speaking states are of general category and not reserved seats for Schedules Castes. In 2008, the BSP forfeited its deposit in Madhya Pradesh in 194 seats out of 228 seats it chose to contest. The figure of candidates who lost their deposits went up to 194 out of 227 seats it contested in 2013. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, all major political players are eying the BSP’s Dalit vote bank. They are trying to win the trust of 22 per cent Dalit population, which plays an instrumental role in the politically significant UP. (IPA Service)