Unsuspecting people who would not go through the details of the HCES, would never know that BVR Subrahmanyam has extrapolated the survey data to say that poor people are those who earn less than Rs 32 per day, and percentage of such people are expected to be less than five per cent. The absurdity of this level of poverty line was already criticized in 2011-12, and was rejected by majority of people at that time when erstwhile Planning Commission had come with the idea of poverty line at earning Rs 32 per day. Now after a decade, a top government official’s argument is doubly absurd based on Rs 32 poverty line.

The aim of the assertion that poverty in India has come down to less than 5 per cent is therefore wrong which is intended to help PM Narendra Modi during the forthcoming general election, when he and BJP would be seeking for their third term, and pushing forward their growth and development narrative. The official further said, “If we go by Rs 32 a day, which was the last accepted poverty line as of 2011-12, and factor in inflation trends since then to double that level to about Rs 60 a day, then you will see that poverty is less than 10 per cent.” It means the top official contradicts his own earlier claim of poverty line gone down below 5 per cent, which was on 2011-12 prices, but on current prices it would be below 10 per cent.

Now let us come to Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) average across fractile classes in 2022-23 as per HCES. Mr Subrahmanyam himself noted that Rs 1373 was the average consumption level for the bottom 5 per cent of rural households, while it was Rs 1782 for the next 5 per cent. One can just imagine how a person is not a poor if one lives on just Rs 1373 or even on Rs 1782 per month.

“I am convinced poverty in India is certainly in the low single digits, and below 5 per cent is what this data shows, if you add the imputed value of food transfers and subsidies received by households under schemes like the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna or subsidized gas cylinders,” Mr Subrahmanyam said. Benefits like healthcare under the Ayushman Bharat scheme and free education have not been factored into the consumption expenditure survey. “In a way, destitution and deprivation have almost gone,” he asserted.

Only recently NITI Aayog’s multi-dimensional poverty index had put 11 per cent of people under poverty line, PM Modi had claimed that 25 crore people were brought out of poverty under his rule, but surprisingly, under PMGKAY free food grains are given to 80 crore poor, while government is yet to identify 1.4 crore of poor out of 81.4 crore estimated under Food Security Act 2013. The number of poor, entering into and going out of it, remains a puzzle.

Now let us come to HCES 2022-23 result. The survey method was changed significantly. There were 347 items in HCES 2011-12, while many new items were added and many other deleted. The present survey had altogether 405 items. In place of one questionnaire, three questionnaires were used – 1. On food items 2. Consumables and services items, and 3. Durable goods. Additionally, there was another questionnaire for collecting information on household characteristics as well as demographic particulars of the members of the households. Mode of data collection was changed from Pen-and-Paper Personal Interview (PAPI) to Computer-Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI). The Survey itself warns that these changes are required to be noted while comparing the results of HCES 2022-23 with those of the previous surveys.

The estimates of MPCE on the basis of which Mr Subrahmanyam has argued, has also a separate additional provision for collection of information on the quantity of consumption for a number of items received and consumed by the households free of cost through various social welfare programmes. Consequently, the value figures for free food items and free non-food items such as laptop, PC, tablets, mobile handsets, bicycle, clothing, footwear (school shoes) etc were imputed using an “appropriate method”.

It is therefore clear that HCES 2022-23 data is different from the earlier data which needs to be understood clearly otherwise it would land us on to a wrong conclusion about actual earning of people and their poverty estimates.

Average estimated MPCE in 2022-23 has been Rs. 3,773 in rural India and Rs. 6,459 in urban India. Rural people spend 46 per cent on food, and 54 per cent on non-food, while in urban areas these are 39 per cent and 61 per cent respectively. The bottom 5% of India’s rural population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs. 1,373 while it is Rs. 2,001 for the same category of population in the urban areas. The top 5% of India’s rural and urban population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs. 10,501 and Rs. 20,824, respectively. The difference is too stark which shows the inequality under the Modi rule.

Though the present survey is not comparable, as this survey has also warned, it compared the earlier survey’s data to the present one itself, which is not acceptable. The 2022-23 data shows the trend in level of consumption in rural areas at Rs 3773 and in urban areas Rs 6459. This level shows that average people are under great hardship on account of their little earning.

The share of cereals in rural areas in average MPCE in 2022-23 was 4.91 per cent and of foods 46.38 per cent. These in urban areas are 3.64 and 39.17 per cent respectively. It may be disheartening to know that around 50 per cent of rural populace had average MPCE at less than Rs 3,094 while it is Rs 4,963 in urban areas. The top three fractile 80-90 per cent, 90-95 per cent, and 95-100 per cent in rural areas had average MPCE Rs 5356, Rs 6638 and Rs 10,501 respectively, while in urban areas these are Rs 9,582, Rs 12,399, and Rs 20,824.

Inequality is again seen in the lowest consumption expenditure which is Rs 1373 in the 0-5 per cent lowest fractile in rural areas and Rs 20,824 per month in urban areas in 95-100 per cent highest fractile. Such inequality is not acceptable, even if we compare rural and urban highest and lowest fractile separately.

Average MPCE of STs are lowest in the rural areas at Rs 3,016, while it is Rs 3,474 for SCs, Rs 3,848 for OBCs and Rs 4,392 for others. In urban areas lowest MPCE is Rs 5,307 for SCs, while it is Rs 5,414 for STs, Rs 6,177 for OBCs and Rs 7,333 for others.

As per the Estimates of MPCE with imputation, average estimated MPCE with imputed values of free items in 2022-23 has been Rs. 3,860 and Rs. 6,521, respectively in rural and urban India. The bottom 5% of India’s rural population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs. 1,441 while it is Rs. 2,087 in the urban areas. The top 5% of India’s rural and urban population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs. 10,581 and Rs. 20,846, respectively.

It would be mere sophistry to deny poverty level, especially on the basis of supplied freebees under welfare schemes, since it just makes poverty a little tolerable, but does not eradicate poverty by raising earning levels. It is just politics to increase consumption level through freebees and welfare schemes, only to claim that poverty has been reduced, which in reality is turning worse amidst joblessness, unemployment, and low earning levels. Rising prices have already induced cost of living crisis. (IPA Service)