Why? Only Gatekeepers of News may answer the real reason, though suspected by common people as partisan approach to show Modi government performing well on the employment front, just when the elections are round the corner when the BJP and PM Narendra Modi have been seeking for their third term, while the opposition has been alleging Modi for not fulfilling his promise of providing 2 crore jobs every year. Unemployment rate rose to 6.1 per cent in 2017-18, which was 45 years high, which is as on March 5, 2024 even higher at 7.7 per cent as per Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data.

The differences in unemployment data are thus irreconcilable. Union government has said that private data are not reliable, but the government data are themselves not accepted as reliable by majority of national and international institutions who have called for reliable data in the past. The present key indicators released by the government are derived from two Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) – first the 3rd PLFS panel for July 2021 – June 2023, and the second 4th PLFS panel for July 2023 – June 2025. The data for first two quarters of 2023 are taken from the 3rd PLFS panel report, and the data for last two quarters are derived from 4th panel, the report of which would be published in 2025.

The government publishes PLFS annual reports for the period commencing from July and ending in June next year. The latest PLFS for 2022-23 was published few months ago. Annual reports include data for both rural and urban areas. However, for urban areas PLFS quarterly data are published, and no quarterly data are published for rural areas. This arrangement has always been a suspect, and probing fingers are raised on the reliability of the data.

In the 9-page key indicators, the government has derived its estimates on the basis of the data collected during first visit of the Survey. Sample size was very small, which includes 6,958 villages and 5,726 urban blocks, where 55,651 and 45,779 households were surveyed. Data for certain areas are also lacking where surveys could not be held. The urgency of deriving data from a future publication for July 2023 – June 2025 can’t be explained other than in the context of the election eve. If otherwise, why Modi government does not provide quarterly rural employment-unemployment data and delay it for one year, while quarterly data for urban areas are published after a delay of over one month? India has never been able to know realtime data of employment-unemployment.

Government has provided only key indicators for 2023, and the full report will be available on in future. Perhaps the annual PLFS report for July-2023 to June 2024 would come around August 2024, only then we will be able to see deep into the present released indicators to know if these are actually reliable.

CMIE data shows that unemployment rate in India in 2020 was 8 per cent, which registered a little decline to 5.98 per cent in 2021, only to increase again to 7.33 per cent in 2022, and 8.003 per cent in 2023. It shows that unemployment rate in 2013 was only 5.42 per cent, just before Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India in 2014.

As against private CMIE data, the government Labour bureau data shows unemployment rate in 2013-14 was 4.9 per cent, which increased to 6.1 per cent in 2017-18. In 2018-19 it was 5.8 per cent, 4.8 per cent in 2019-20, 4.2 per cent in 2020-21, 4.1 per cent in 2021-22, and 3.2 per cent in 2022-23. The latest released indicators suggest further decline in unemployment rate to 3.1 per cent in 2023. These unemployment rates were estimated by adding the principal activity status (ps) and subsidiary economic activity status (ss), with reference period of last 365 days preceding the date of survey, which is in brief called usual status. It is very difficult for a common man, because the government also released data on Current Weekly Status (CWS) with a reference period of last 7 days preceding the date of survey. As per CWS basis unemployment rates are much higher at 5 per cent in 2023, 5.7 per cent in 2022, and 7.3 per cent in 2021, the key indicators reveal.

The differences in the three set of data are clearly irreconcilable, which is indicative of a situation that actual unemployment rate on the ground might be much higher that the government usual statues data says, which is the lowest presenting a rosy picture of the India’s crisis ridden job market.

Even if we take the latest key indicators provided by the government, the situation seems to be grimmer on CWS basis, which shows the urban unemployment rate at 6.7 per cent in 2023, and the rural unemployment rate at 4.3 per cent. Worker Population Ratio (WPR) (percentage of employed persons in population) was 53.4 per cent with 56.2 per cent in rural areas and 47 per cent in urban areas. Rural areas are known for very low wages and many in agriculture are actually in unemployment in disguise. Similar is the case with Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) (percentage of person in labour force) which was 56.2 per cent, in urban areas 50.3 per cent and in rural areas 58.8 per cent.

As for the Gender equality is concerned, women are worst sufferers. Women above 25 years and above graduation were only 1.5 per cent in the rural areas and 7 per cent in urban areas. Employment rate among them was just 2.9 per cent in 2023. Ratio of female workers working as legislators and senior officials and managers were just 14.4 per cent, with 15.4 per cent in rural and 13.8 per cent in urban areas. Ratio of female to men working as professionals and technical workers were 49.4 per cent, with 53.2 per cent in rural and 46.9 per cent in urban areas. It just exposes the false government claim of empowerment of women. (IPA Service)