Since February 22, change in political landscape has been going against the BJP, which included agitation of farmers, workers from both Public and Private sectors, and government employees; greater unity among INDIA alliance partners excepting only one JD(U) deserting and TMC contesting alone; and Modi government’s hiding efforts of its murky donation business through electoral bonds. People are also not able to stomach two claims – official elimination of poverty and negligible level of unemployment – which they consider false. These could potentially harm the BJP’s political prospect further, but how much is the billion-dollar question.

India TV survey itself gives certain hints, though survey results are suspect to be slanted in favour of BJP, because the organization has often been alleged to have been favouring BJP in the past. Nevertheless, even this is not factored in the survey result, one thing can certainly be said that the survey captures only the political sentiments of the people during February 5 and 23 only, not the political developments after February 22, the opinion poll results have come out on February 25, which makes the survey results entirely out of immediate political context.

In absence of Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh, the survey has predicted 74 seats for BJP, 2 seats for Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and 2 seats for Apna Dal, which add to 78 seats for NDA. The Survey predicated only 2 remaining seats for SP led by Akhilesh Yadav. Now seat sharing between Congress and SP was finalized during the survey period, which was finally announced on February 21, and which has drastically altered the entire political spectrum not only in Uttar Pradesh but also in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.

It should be noted that BJP had won 71 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014, and 62 seats in 2019. Congress-SP alliance can well dent into the BJP and NDA seats in 2024. The alliance is set to give tough fight in 36 to 46 seats, which the survey has just excluded since there alliance was not announced during the survey period. SP had won 5 seats in 2019, while its ally BSP had won 10 seats. BSP is contesting alone and its supporters among minority and Dalits are set to move towards INDIA alliance.

The survey has predicted 10 seats for BJP out of 11 seats from Chhattisgarh, all 29 seats from Madhya Pradesh, and all 25 seats from Rajasthan. Since Congress-SP alliance was not factored into the survey results, INDIA alliance would well reduce BJP’s seats in these states. Almost on all seats in these three states, a prospect of very close contest between the BJP and INDIA alliance has already emerged.

Survey also predicts all 5 seats in Uttarakhand to BJP and all 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh. There are certain political setbacks lately to Congress in these states, but at the ground level, there seems to be closer contest between the Congress and the BJP.

Among other states in the Hindi belt Bihar is an important state, where the survey has predicted 17 seats for BJP, 12 for JD(U), 4 for RJD, and 1 for Congress. NDA had won 39 seats out of 40 in the state. Survey predicts a gain for INDIA alliance, and loss for NDA, may be a serious concern for BJP.

Since APP- Congress alliance came into existence with declaration of seat-sharing in five states/UT – Delhi, Goa, Haryana, Gujarat, and Chandigarh, the survey did not factor in its result, which predicted all 7 seats from Delhi, all 2 seats from Goa, all 10 seats from Haryana, and 26 seats from Gujarat, and the lone seat of Chandigarh to BJP. Congress-AAP alliance has altered the political situation on the ground which even compelled the BJP to change 4 sitting MPs from Delhi out of 5 candidates it declared in the first list. It shows the prediction is going to be gravely incorrect for these states. Farmers agitation in Haryana has almost shattered the BJP’s prospect while even in Gujarat, Congress-AAP alliance is set to give tough fight to BJP in couple of seats.

West Bengal is in very fluid situation now with latest developments, after Sandeshkhali incidents. The Survey predicted 20 seats for BJP, 21 seats for TMC, and 1 seat for Congress. Latest development in the state may change these figures. One of the BJP candidates has said that he was not able to even contest, shows something is seriously against the BJP, while TMC is also not politically comfortable at this time.

BJP and its allies had issues in seat-sharing in Maharashtra, though it was not factored in the survey, apart from the successful seat-sharing among the INDIA alliance partners. The survey predicted 25 seats for BJP, 8 for Shiv Sena (UBT), 4 for NCP (Ajit), 6 for Shiv Sena (Shinde), 3 for NCP-Sharad, and 2 for Congress. New political developments have just altered the political prospect, and BJP and NDA will have to suffer loss.

For South India, the survey predicted 22 seats for BJP in Karnataka, 3 seats in Kerala, 5 seats in Telangana, and 4 seats in Tamil Nadu. In a changed political scenario with stronger INDIA alliance, the prediction tends to go wrong.

The next survey is likely to include the new factors since February 22, and we will have better insight into the political prospects of the BJP. At this moment, in the light of the present survey and the changed ground level political factors including strengthening of INDIA alliance after seat sharing arrangements, one can safely conclude that neither the BJP, not the NDA could even retain the number of seats they won in 2019. They are set to lose large number of seats in 2024. BJP’s needs 272 to form government on its own. India TV-CNX gives enough hints of problems for BJP when we add new emerging political factors, that were non-existed at the time of the survey. (IPA Service)