AAP guys are simple, and straightforward. They think linearly. They say they care for Delhi and that Delhi needs the firm hand of Kejriwal's leadership to survive Modi rule. They expected the apex court to act immediately, but it might take longer. AAP spokespersons Reena Gupta, Priyanka Kakkar and AAP cabinet minister Saurabh Bharadwaj cited AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh’s release on bail by the Supreme Court as a precedent. They were predicting Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal would walk free much like Sanjay Singh did, “just you wait and see.”

They deny AAP’s involvement in the liquor policy scam. “It is the BJP’s ghotala, not AAP’s. Where is the money trail? AAP is being targeted because the AAP government of Kejriwal built schools and mohalla clinics.” But it is not easy to defend Kejriwal. Those fasting and demonstrating in London and Washington DC should see the writing on the wall. Arvind Kejriwal is in judicial custody because of a bunch of damning evidence. There’s no evident money trail because the money was in cash and was spent in AAP’s Goa election campaign.

But those who received the cash for electioneering in Goa have spoken on sworn affidavits. Kejriwal thought he was smarter with his ‘Beautiful Mind’. Overconfidence did Kejriwal in. He is now on thin ice. Unless the Supreme Court rules in his favour. Kejriwal’s career is in the hands of the Supreme Court. Even the future of the AAP is in jeopardy. The High Court on April 9 pretty much closed the door on both Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party. Whoever was advising Kejriwal was doing it all wrong.

Perhaps Kejriwal thought it up all by himself. Even after all this, AAP spokespersons are talking like they’re miles better than other parties’ spokespersons. Then again, turning the tables is an AAP specialty. Kejriwal had termed all the ED summons “illegal”. The Delhi Court on April 9 overruled and ruled them and his arrest “legal”. What we now know is that Kejriwal “conspired with others” to change Delhi's excise policy and it is not just an observation, it is in the order.

It is like Arvind Kejriwal went for his own execution.

The High Court also mentioned “kickbacks” that went straight into AAP’s safe. But hope springs, wasn’t Sanjay Singh let off on bail by the Supreme Court? Sanjay Singh is now a believer and he is confident the Supreme Court will view the “facts” laid out by the High Court and rule fairly. Does it look like two courts are fighting each other and will the Supreme Court overturn judge Swarana Kanta Sharma’s ruling once again like it did in the Sanjay Singh case?

Delhi cabinet minister Saurabh Bharadwaj believes it will. Bharadwaj says the excise policy scam is the “biggest political conspiracy” ever hatched, and solely to remove Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal from the poll arena. Bharadwaj and other AAP leaders have been freely criticizing judge Swarana Kanta Sharma’s order though Bharadwaj’s "we respectfully submit that we do not agree with its order" sounds innocuous enough.

For now, the 'Kingpin' of liquor-gate will remain in Tihar till April 15 unless the Supreme Court acts before that and rules in his favour. It looks tough though as the High Court’s April 9 verdict had plainly and squarely ruled that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal had "conspired with others" and was "actively involved in using proceeds of crime".

Now, who would want to be in Kejriwal’s shoes after this? Perhaps no one, except Kejriwal’s wife Sunitha Kejriwal, but this only to step into the Delhi Chief Minister’s shoes. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s plight after April 9 is such that he might be in jail for an extended period. And he cannot keep ruling Delhi from jail. The Delhi High Court in its order told Kejriwal there weren't two sets of laws and he should not expect special treatment.

In the days, weeks and months to come, circumstances will keep changing and, in case Kejriwal is convicted, there might be challenges to Sunitha Kejriwal’s leadership from within the AAP. Sunitha is no Rabari and Bihar’s politics is not the same as Delhi’s politics. The prognosis for Kejriwal looks bleak. The AAP convenor was “involved” in the formulation of the excise policy and had “personally demanded kickbacks”. As AAP national convenor, he had “participated” in the scam. (IPA Service)