The electoral momentum for India's 2024 elections has been set in motion with the announcement of polling dates across the country's 28 states and eight federal or Union territories which is directly controlled by Government of India. As the Bharatiya Jodo Nyay Yatra (BJNY) or "Unite India Justice March" led by Rahul Gandhi reaches its conclusion, analysts and media outlets, including The Diplomat, are once again discussing the prospects of the country's "grand old party" – the Congress party.

Over the past ten years, the Indian National Congress (Congress) has seen a significant drop in its political influence, with many analyzing the reasons for its steep fall, especially noticeable in the 2014 and 2019 elections. There's been a lot of talk about how the Congress could turn around its poor showing in these elections, looking for strategies to better its chances at the polls.

The chief criticism directed at the Congress party and its leaders is their hesitance to undertake significant organizational reforms. Notably, there seems to be a resistance to promote leaders outside of the Gandhi family circle. Additionally, people have been noticeably upset about Rahul Gandhi's involvement in politics. His on-and-off presence and limited efforts to help his party do better have been points of concern. Also, it has been observed that the Congress party's internal structure has been slowly weakening, and there hasn't been a strong, organized push to revitalize it. Moreover, the leaders haven't taken steps to stop the constant internal conflicts within its state branches.

Have the Efforts to Fix Problems Been Sufficient?: Yet, over the past two years, the Congress party has made noticeable efforts to tackle these issues.

In 2022, after more than twenty years, the Gandhi family stepped down from the Congress party's top spot for the first time, and Mallikarjun Kharge from Karnataka, an experienced leader from the Dalit community, was chosen as the new head of the party. Although many think he got the position because of his strong support for the Gandhi family, his appointment as the leader and his capability to guide the party should not be overlooked. The Gandhi family has remained supportive of Kharge as he leads the party, and with him at the helm, the party secured victories in the state elections of Karnataka and Telangana in 2023.

Between September 2022 and January 2023, Rahul Gandhi led a campaign called the "Bharat Jodo Yatra," which means "Bring India Together March." This event was a major effort by his party to connect with people and it also improved Gandhi's image among the public. In recent times, Gandhi has been actively involved in his party's work. He has been present at meetings of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), spearheaded the Bharat Jodo Yatra, and taken part in campaigning for all significant elections.

Recently, Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra was seen as a big lift for his party's structure. Meanwhile, with the Gandhis' backing, Kharge managed to calm internal conflicts in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh right before the state elections in December.

Yet, even with these efforts, the Congress party's chances faded in the latest state elections across three key states, with Telangana standing out as the only positive outcome for the party. Narendra Modi's appeal remains strong after a decade in power. Moreover, the progress of the INDIA coalition has been modest. Also, Gandhi's follow-up to the Bharat Jodo Yatra, known as the BJNY (the second edition), didn't draw as much public interest as expected. Looking ahead to the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party's chances of winning don't spark a lot of hope.

Why Congress matters?: Right now, the Congress only rules by itself in three states. Even though its outlook isn't bright, the party's comeback is important for the national political opposition in India. While many powerful local parties have given tough competition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in various state elections since 2014, none but the Congress has the widespread support and strong organization needed to take on the BJP across the country.

Regional groups such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) have attempted to grow their influence outside of West Bengal but haven't made much headway. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has managed to extend its control from New Delhi to Punjab, a state that the Congress party used to govern.

In truth, it's hard to imagine a nationwide contest against the BJP's dominance in national elections without including the Congress, even though it has lost a lot of ground lately. So, it's appropriate to talk about how the Congress might make a comeback as India prepares for a big election battle soon.

The Congress party's political influence clearly started to weaken after 2014, but its support has actually been slowly fading since the late 1980s. Also, the way the party is organized has been under pressure because of how tightly party activities have been controlled from the top since the time of Indira Gandhi, especially after the party split in 1969.Since the decline of the Congress party has been happening for a while, fixing it can't happen quickly. It will require a well-thought-out and steady approach with many steps to bring the party back to strength. First off, the Congress should separate its strategies into immediate actions and plans for the future.

Clear Communication vs. Big Picture: Over time, as a major party, the Congress has struggled to present a big, inspiring idea or a powerful story that captures the interest of the voters.

The Congress party's promise to support ordinary people with various social safety programs was summed up in the saying "Congress ka Haath, Aam Aadmi ke Saath," which means "Congress stands with the common man," during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) years from 2004 to 2014. This was possibly the last countrywide message from them that really caught voters' attention.

Over the past ten years, phrases like "government in suits and boots" (suit-boot ki sarkar) or "the watchman is a thief" (chowkidar chor hai) were used to suggest that Prime Minister Modi's BJP was too close to big business. However, these slogans didn’t seem to resonate with the majority of voters. Even now, the Congress party seems to lack a clear plan for winning elections. The Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY) did energize party members, but its message to the general public wasn't very clear. The slogan "Shop of Love" (Mohabbat ki dukan) aimed to promote kindness and unity, but it was too vague and lacked the clear, strong points needed for an effective political message. Rahul Gandhi's repeated calls for a census based on caste to help the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) doesn't appear to have gained widespread attention, as shown by the outcomes of the latest state elections.

The Congress party should create a clear and appealing story that presents a reliable political option different from the BJP's approach. Also, the party needs to develop a better plan for running the government that connects with its usual supporters.

In the long run, the Congress party needs to present a big, inspiring vision that resonates with India's modern ambitions. As a comparison, the BJP under Modi has shaped a narrative around three main themes: reinforcing Hindu traditions; fostering national pride with a focus on development and technology; and enhancing public infrastructure and welfare through schemes that directly transfer benefits to people.

When it comes to who leads the party: Congress has struggled a lot, both in the whole country and in individual states. The party hasn't done very well in elections with the Gandhis in charge over the past ten years, yet Rahul Gandhi is still seen as the favorite leader within the group. This situation is mostly because the Congress has a long history of choosing its leaders from the Gandhi family. It's also because there isn't another leader with enough support from the party's grassroots to step up as a national leader.

Hence, for Congress to stand a better chance in the upcoming election, the only option seems to be improving how people see their leaders, clarifying their message, and using their organizational power to support their chances with Rahul Gandhi at the helm.

Gandhi's Nyay Yatra did excite party workers, but it might have needed a rethink because it used up important time. The leadership was visiting states where their partners are in charge, but the real test for Congress is to do better in the central states where the BJP is strong. For its future, Congress should realize it's important to find new, young leaders who aren't from the Gandhi family. This will help the party adapt to today's changing political scene. Also, experienced leaders at the state level are losing their influence, and many of the younger ones have left the party. It’s crucial for Congress to build up a strong group of popular local leaders for its future plans. The party needs to start looking for these new leaders now. Strong leadership at the state level is essential if they want to become a powerful force in national politics again.

Congress is stuck on a tough question: should it step aside for powerful local parties in areas where those parties are stronger? The trouble is, if Congress does this, its own structure in those places gets weaker and its party workers lose motivation. This issue is especially tricky in places like Bengal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Kerala, where Congress might end up competing against the very parties it could team up with.

But since Congress has become a minor player in these states, its main goal for this election should be to form smart partnerships to stop vote splitting which could end up helping the BJP. The big plan for the INDIA coalition is on shaky ground, but in places like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra, where Congress has wisely made room for strong local parties, there's still a chance for these alliances to work out well. Over time, Congress needs to work hard to make its own party structure stronger, particularly in central places like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Also, even with Mr. Kharge leading, Congress hasn't made the big changes everyone was waiting for, because the people who have always supported the Gandhi family are still in place, even though they haven't done very well.

In the world of democratic elections, no one always wins or always loses. Time and again, history has shown us that even the strongest political figures and groups can be defeated, and newcomers can win big. So, even though things look bleak now, Congress has a duty to pick itself back up as a strong choice for the nation. Still, Congress needs to get past its lazy ways, stop being overconfident, and realize that it needs to make serious changes to spark a comeback. It's very important for India to have an opposition that works well and makes a difference. (IPA Service)