Altogether 102 constituencies of 21 states and UTs were scheduled to go to poll on April 19, of which high stake constituencies for BJP were 5 in Assam, 4 in Bihar, 1 in Chhattisgarh, 1 in Jammu and Kashmir, 6 in Madhya Pradesh, 5 in Maharashtra, 12 in Rajasthan, 1 in Tripura, 8 in Uttar Pradesh, and 3 in West Bengal. These are altogether 46 out of which BJP found itself in very close contest in about 20 seats with the INDIA bloc candidates.

On the basis of the election campaigns in the first and second phase, a pattern has clearly emerged. Closer the possibility of contest, higher the stakes for BJP and INDIA bloc, and larger the number of phases of elections. There seems to be clear link between the number of phases of election in a state, and the corresponding stakes of the BJP. Thus there were only 10 states out of 21 states and UTs in the first phase where BJP had higher stakes.

All these 10 states – Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tripura, Utter Pradesh, and West Bengal – and in Karnataka, BJP will have even higher stakes than in the first phase. BJP’s stakes are most high in Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal where there would be elections even in the third phase on May 7, for which last date of fining nominations is April 19, the day on which first phase of elections is scheduled.

Assam is a high-stake state for BJP where elections for 14 seats are scheduled in first three phases. Five seats will go to poll in the first phase, another 5 in the second phase, and the rest 4 in the third phase. Since INC had established its upper hand in one of the seats in the first phase, and offering closer contests in another two, BJP’s stakes have become higher in the second phase of election in Darang-Udalguri, Diphu, Karimganj, Silchar, and Nagaon. There seems to be three cornered contests in all these seats. In Darang-Udalguri, contest is among BJP, INC, and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). In Diphu, the contest in among BJP, INC, and Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC).

In Karimganj and Nagaon, contest is among BJP, INC and AIUDF. In Silchar, contest is among BJP, INC, and TMC. Contests are closer than expected in all seats, and hence outcomes are more uncertain. BJP had won Karimganj seat in 2019 by a margin of only 38,389 votes, and the runner up was AIUDF. BJP had also won Silchar by 81,596 votes and runner up was INC candidate. INC seems to have upper hand in even Nagaon. Since Darang-Udalguri and Diphu, are new constituencies as per the delimitation order of 2023, the respective strengths of political parties are untested, however, in both the constituencies INC is lately gaining strength.

In the Hindi heartland state Bihar, remains one of the toughest states for BJP and NDA where elections are scheduled in all seven phases. NDA seems to have gained upper hand in the first phase, but situation becomes tough in the second phase, since INDIA bloc candidates are stronger. The five seats going to poll in second phase are Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, Bhagalpur and Banka. Kishanganj was won by INC in 2019 while JD(U) had won Katihar by a margin of only 57,203 defeating INC candidate. JD(U) had also won Purnia by defeating INC, and Bhagalpur and Banka by defeating RJD candidates. Since JD(U) had first raised hopes among backward classes by getting Castes Census conducted against the will of the BJP, and now backtracking by joining hands with the BJP, OBC voters have become apprehensive against NDA. Now INDIA bloc (INC and RJD) is pitching on Caste Census and respective share of reservation according to their population. OBCs are gravitating towards INDIA bloc candidates, reports indicate.

Chhattisgarh is another Hindi heartland state where three constituencies – Rajnandgaon, Mahasamund, and Kanker – are scheduled for election in second phase. BJP had won Kanker by only 6,914 votes in 2019, and Mahasamund by 90,511 votes defeating INC candidates, that too in the height of Pulwama wave. BJP had also won Rajnandgaon seats by 1,11,966 votes. The recent Vidhan Sabha election 2023 has shown a 5.17 per cent decline of BJP’s vote share which came down to only 46.27 per cent as against 42.23 per cent of INC. In one-on-one fight with INC candidates, all these three constituencies are witnessing closer contests making outcome uncertain. Chhattisgarh is a difficult state for BJP and elections would be held here in three phases, 7 in the last phase. In the first phase, INC seemed to have an upper hand in lone seat Bastar which was scheduled for poll on April 19.

Madhya Pradesh is the third Hindi heartland state, where 6 constituencies are scheduled to poll. These are – Tikamgarh, Damoh, Khajuraho, Satna, Rewa, Hoshangabad and Betul. The state is scheduled for poll in four phases. Due to rejection of nomination of SP candidate in Khajuraho seat, which went to the party as per seat sharing with Congress, AIFB is contesting as part of INDIA bloc. All these seats were won by BJP in 2019, and the party seems to have upper hand this time too, but INDIA bloc is still contesting with great zeal.

Rajasthan is fourth Hindi heartland state where 13 seats are going to polls in the second phase which would conclude the election in the state, since 12 were scheduled for poll in the first phase. This is a state where there is very close contest, since difference of share of votes between BJP and INC was only 2.06 per cent in Vidhan Sabha election 2023. BJP’s vote share had come down by 17.38 per cent compared to 2019 election, and hence the state presents a great challenge to the party. NDA had won all 25 seats from the state, BJP 24 and RLP 1. RLP has already deserted BJP. NDA is thus running a very high risk of losing several seats in the state. The constituencies scheduled for poll in the state are – Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalor, Udaipur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, Kota, and Jhalawar-Baran.

Another key state having high risk for BJP is Uttar Pradesh, where elections are scheduled in 7 phases. Eight constituencies of Western Uttar Pradesh will be going to poll in the second phase. These are Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh and Mathura. INDIA bloc is giving tough fight to BJP in Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat which BJP may find tough to retain. BJP candidates are finding tough challenges in all 26 constituencies in Western Uttar Pradesh though the state BJP leadership is exuding confidence about winning most of the seats. The Congress and SP workers at base level have been operating at their optimum capacity to defeat the BJP candidates.

Karnataka and Kerala are the two states in South India, going to poll in second phase. All the seats 20 seats in Kerala would poll in this phase, where BJP and NDA may not be even be able to open their account. As for Karnataka, half of the Karnataka’s 28 seats would poll. BJP has very high stakes since the party had won 25 seats in 2019. BJP and JD(S) are contesting together against the ruling INC in the state. BJP is running a very high risk of losing Gulbarga, Koppal, Bellary, while in Chikkodi, Bagalkot, Raichur, Bidar, Haveri, and Devangere the party is facing great challenge in retaining them. Only in Belgaum, Bijapur, Dharwad, Uttar Kannada, and Shimoga, BJP seems to have an edge. BJP had won all these 14 seats in 2019, which seems to be in great trouble this time.

West Bengal remains most contentious state for BJP, since TMC has been offering them tough fight. Darjeeling, Raiganj, and Balurghat. Will go to polls in the second has. If BJP found it difficult in retaining its Cooch Behar seat in the first phase, it is finding same difficulty in Raiganj and Balurghat. BJP had won Raiganj in 2019 with a margin of only 60,574 and Balurghat by a margin of only 33,293 votes. In Darjeeling, the BJP candidate is facing a party rebel, present MLA of an assembly under the Lok Sabha constituency. This rebel candidate is popular. There is every possibility that he would cut into the votes of the official BJP candidate.

BJP will thus have very tough week ahead before second phase of election on April 26. INDIA bloc seems to have an edge in this phase also, as it had an edge in the first phase chiefly on account of South Indian states – in the first phase it was Tamil Nadu, and in the second phase these are Karnataka and Kerala. (IPA Service)