With money at the core, the fight has shifted to Maximum City Mumbai, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a roadshow and sought to impress his will on the Mumbai voter. Mumbai, a Shiv Sena stronghold till 2022 when the Sena split into two feuding factions, is coveted for its financial clout.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the Sena faction led by Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray both claim to be the true legatee of Balasaheb Thackeray. And both want control of Mumbai. Uddhav Thackeray cannot afford to lose control.

This is when the two Nationalist Congress Party factions – one led by Sharad Pawar and the other by his nephew Ajit Pawar – are also fighting their own battles for relevance. To say the least, the minds of Maharashtra’s election watchers are in constant flux.

These general elections in Maharashtra will decide once and for all, which of the two Senas will live to fight another day. Ditto the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party. Meanwhile, there is this growing feeling that if somebody is calling the shots overall, it is not Eknath Shinde, not Devendra Fadnavis, not Uddhav Thackeray, not even old warhorse Sharad Pawar, but the one and only Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar.

Sharad Pawar is '83' and he has thrown in the towel but Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray is bent on reclaiming his father's Shiv Sena. For Uddhav Thackeray, general elections 2024 is his test to not fail the test. Uddhav Thackeray is a brave man to bet everything he holds dear, his very political future and that of the dynasty ‘Thackeray’, on these 2024 general elections.

As for Ajit Pawar, he threw off Sharad Pawar’s yoke and that is part of the general elections 2024 story. As many as 14 Maharashtra Lok Sabha seats go to polls in the fifth and final phase in the state and there is talk that the Ajit Pawar-effect will be felt in all the 14 constituencies.

There is no need to go far to find out ‘why?’ – the Baramati Lok Sabha elections, which took place in the third phase and in which Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar took on Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, the sitting MP. The Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP has already claimed victory in Baramati and people in general believe there can’t be two ways about it. The Baramati-template worked and will work elsewhere in the other Lok Sabha constituencies, too.

The Baramati template is a combination of buying votes and misleading voters. There is no shortage of money with the Mahayuti, with the world’s largest party in it, which is also the richest party in the world. The Baramati template involves creating confusion on election symbols in the minds of millions of voters.

Voters loyal to Sharad Pawar for years together didn’t realize one bit that they were voting for the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP until it was too late. They left polling booths thinking Sharad Pawar’s NCP still had the ‘Clock’ when they should have placed their voting finger on the ‘Man blowing the trumpet’. The symbol confusion is the legacy of the splits in the Shiv Sena, and in the Nationalist Congress Party.

The battle for the “real Sena” tag isn’t over. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and UBT Sena Chief Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray are claiming the loyalty of Shiv Sainiks and the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray and a lot of water has accumulated in the Mumbra Creek since the wholesome Shiv Sena took a break in 2022 though the fight for the Shiv Sena legacy hasn’t taken a break.

Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray considers himself the true legatee of Balasaheb Thackeray and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, the cause of all the shindig, according to Aditya Thackeray, says he represents Balasaheb’s ideology. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s tie-up with the BJP carries its own weight. Shinde says Shiv Sena (UBT) lost the “hearts and minds” of Shiv Sainiks when Uddhav chose to align with the “hated” Congress.

So Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar has taken a grip-hold on the running of the NDA election juggernaut in Maharashtra even though the fifth phase elections in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Nashik and portions of Khandesh, will see direct contests between the Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and the Sena led by Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray.

What’s Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis doing? Last heard, the former Maharashtra CM was doling out credits to Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar for the splits in Shiv Sena and NCP. Fadnavis is campaigning for Mahayuti candidates behind Prime Minister Modi’s back as, like everywhere else in the country, in Maharashtra also these elections are being fought on the PM’s name and face. Prime Minister Modi thinks he is the magic mantra for assured victory.

Prime Minister Modi also values Mumbai’s seven constituencies which go to polls in the fifth phase. Control over the financial capital has its own political ramifications. Cash cow Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation brings with it special clout. Ask Milind Deora and he will tell you BMC is at the centre of Mumbai’s politics. The control of BMC has always been with the Thackeray family but Modi believes the status quo is bad for Mumbai.

The BJP feels Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray’s Sena cannot beat the cadre strength of the Shiv Sena-BJP combine fighting in tandem with the Ajit Pawar NCP. The Mahayuti believes the 14 Lok Sabha seats going to polls in the fifth phase are low hanging fruit, ready for the picking. The Maha Vikas Aghadi believes there is an “undercurrent” working in its favour.

Besides, Shinde wants to break free from the “BJP puppet” image he has been saddled with. Ordinary Shiv Sainiks do not like to play second fiddle. There’s also talk of Mahayuti’s “poor candidate selection” for the Mumbai Lok Sabha seats. Prime Minister Modi was reportedly coming on another Mumbai visit and the INDI-Alliance was organizing a public meeting at which top INDI-Alliance leaders, including Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, would ask Maharashtra voters to dump the BJP for a better tomorrow for all the people of India. (IPA Service)