The youth between the age of 18 and 40 seemed to be divided. Majority of the youth, who were in their 25-30 when Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister on the promise of creating 2 crore jobs every year, have lost their illusion on account of theirs being unable to find suitable jobs under 10 years of Modi rule. They have now become overage or nearing overage and hence they have already lost their opportunities to get quality jobs. They have reconciled to either informal jobs sans social security, or self-employment having very low earnings. This development has also made majority of youth really concerned, and only a fraction of them were found dreaming as PM Modi has prompted them to during the election campaigns.

Though, youth of the country are also divided on religious lines, since many have found their engagement with “Jai Shri Ram” sloganeering party, they seemed generally on meditative mood, though not vocal in expressing their preference of voting. Elections were announced on March 16 when unemployment rate was still elevated at 7.4 per cent, which became even worse by the beginning of May when it rose to 8.1 per cent, as the CMIE data shows. Since the Government of India does not provide real time data on employment and unemployment, we have no option but to look into the private CMIE data. Worse, higher the education level, higher the unemployment rate.

The CMIE’s latest Consumer Pyramids Household Survey has found that unemployment rate increased both in the rural and urban areas. Rural unemployment rate climbed to 7.8 per cent in April from 7.1 per cent in March, while in urban areas it rose form 8.1 per cent to 8.7 per cent. Suffering the impact of the rise in unemployment during the election has offset much of the enticing power of Modi’s guarantee of employment to the workforce in general and youth employment in particular.

Then there was even a worse thing happened. Employment rate and opportunities thereby fell in April, as the labour participation rate (LPR) data of the CMIE shows. LPR came down to 40.9 per cent in April, form 41.1 per cent in the March. Employment rate, which is the proportion of employed persons in the working age population aged 15 years and above, fell from 38.1 per cent to 37.6 per cent in April 2024.

Workforce has shrunk, as CMIE data recorded. In March the total employed persons in the country were 433.8 million which came down to 429.1 million in April. It means about 4.7 million workers lost their jobs in April. The loss of jobs have not been received favourably for during PM Modi’s campaigns, and people generally doubted his commitments towards providing employment opportunities to the people.

It should be noted that employment rises between August to April every year chiefly due to rise in agricultural activities in the rural areas. It begins falling in April and the trend continues until July, because of lack of agricultural activities. In the light of this one thing is clear that there is a disturbing lack of job opportunities in non-agricultural activities.

In April 2023, total employed persons were 414.8 million as per the CMIE data which fell to 405.4 million in July 2023. It sharply rose with monsoon and agricultural activities in August to 424.7 million. When Kharif reaping season came it rose even to 433 million which picked to 433.8 million in March 2024 in Rabi reaping season. Then it has started falling in April, and this trend will continue until election. Since about 20 million workers were found gainful engagement during the election, the real job opportunities seem to be at the level of one year before. Indeed, it is a dismal performance of the Modi government despite his promises of giving jobs, and so-called distribution of appointment letters. Job market in the country seems to be stagnant, while about 2 crore youth enter into job market every year.

It was just during the election campaign in the beginning of April, International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute for Human Development (IHD) had published their India Employment Report 2024, which said that youth constituted about 83 per cent of the jobless in India, and growth was not employment-intensive.

The report, based on government data, said that about 90 per cent of those who found jobs in 2022 were informally employed, 82 per cent in the informal sector, 55.8 per cent self-employed, 22.7 per cent casually employed and only 21.5 per cent were in regular employment.

The report admitted that youth employment is, by and large, of poorer quality than employment for adults. Youth unemployment increased nearly threefold, from 5.7 per cent in 2000 to 17.5per cent in 2019 but declined to 12.1 per cent in 2022.The youth unemployment rate has increased with the level of education, with the highest rates among those with a graduate degree or higher and higher among women than men. In 2022, the unemployment rate among youths was six times greater than among persons with a secondary or higher level of education (at 18.4 percent) and nine times greater among graduates (at 29.1 per cent) than for persons who cannot read and write (at 3.4 per cent). Women not in employment, education or training amounted toa proportion nearly five times larger than among their male counterparts (48.4 per cent versus 9.8 percent) and accounted for around 95 per cent of the total youth population not in employment, education or training in 2022.

After the publication of the report, the Chief Economic Advisor of the Government of India V A Nageswaran had said that Government can’t really address unemployment problem. Before that, PM Narendra Modi had said on March 20, that India’s “youth have opted to become job creators more than job seekers.”

Opposition parties have made the unemployment a major issue during their election campaigns and included it in their manifestoes. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has said, “Our Youth is bearing the brunt of Modi Government’s pathetic apathy, as ever-increasing Unemployment had destroyed their future. ILO & IHD report conclusively says that the unemployment problem is grim in India. They are Conservative, we are sitting on a ticking bomb of joblessness!” He alleged that youth unemployment has tripled under the Modi government compared to 2012. (IPA Service)