Bihar, being one of the three politically sensitive states apart from Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal where elections were scheduled in all the 7 phases, has already been emanating ominous signals for the NDA and their allies. On May 25, the sixth phase of poll would conclude election in 32 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state.

The first five phases of election witnessed very close contests between the NDA and INDIA bloc candidates in 24 Lok Sabha constituencies. They were in neck and neck contests. However, NDA has managed its position before the sixth phase. Nevertheless, the total NDA tally seems tobe significantly lower than the 39 it had won in 2019. Political analysts say that the NDA would not be able to win more than two dozen seats this time.

BJP in the state is led by Samrat Choudhary, and the party is contesting 17 seats. Nitish Kumar led JD(U) is contesting 16, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) LJP(RV) 5, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi 1, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) 1 seat as per the seat sharing arrangement in NDA. However, not only the BJP, but also its allies are not seen performing very well during the last five phases of election.

INDIA bloc in the state is led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Lalu Yadav, now under young leadership of his son Tejasvi Yadav. RJD is contesting on 23 seats, while INC is contesting on 9, CPI(ML)L on 3, VIP led by Mukesh Sahani on three, CPI(M) on 1, and CPI on 1 seat. All these parties seemed to performing well in the last five phases of elections, offering very tough electoral battle for NDA candidates.

Though AIMIM is contesting on 11 seats, its candidates are facing tough challenge in convincing its minority Muslim support base to vote for the party. Muslim population, by and large is supporting INDIA bloc candidates.

INDIA bloc candidates have been getting support of Yadavas and other several OBC communities, who have been not getting their right share in development under BJP government. Though, Bihar became the first state to have got caste census done under the leadership of JD(U)-RJD joint leadership in the state despite BJP’s stiff opposition to caste census, JD(U) is not getting its political benefit on account of Nitish Kumar’s joining hands with BJP again. Thus, BJP and JD(U) both are at receiving end, as far as OBC support is concerned.

LJP (RV) led by Chirag Paswan, the son of the most popular Dalit leader in Bihar Ram Vilas Paswan, was pushed out from NDA after the death of his father, was now accommodated in the alliance, but it is also not helping as per the expectation of the BJP. LJP(RV) is also facing tough challenge where the party is contesting because of the split in LJP into two groups. BJP has not made alliance with the disgruntled group led by Chirag’s uncle, and preferred alliance with Chirag.

The first five phase election showed that the poor across all castes and communities are supporting the INDIA bloc candidates in large number. It has paved the way for winning a few seats by even left parties after a long gap. The political shift at the ground level improved the chances of INDIA bloc candidates on about 11 seats out of 24 where elections were held in the first five phases. The INDIA bloc is facing very tough challenge in the sixth phase when 8 constituencies would poll on May 25. INDIA bloc candidates have some edge only on 2 seats.

In contrast, the NDA seems to have strengthened its position in the sixth phase and their candidates have clear edge in as many as 6 seats out of 8 going to polls. In the first five phases NDA has upper hand in only 13 seats out of 24 polled.

The political campaign for the sixth phase is at the pick now. BJP candidates in Paschim and Purvi Champaran are going strong against their rivals, while JD(U) candidates on Valmiki Nagar, Sheohar, and Gopalganj seem to have an edge. LJP(RV) candidate in Vaishali has also an edge. As for INDIA bloc candidates are concerned, RJD has an edge on Siwan while INC candidate has emerged stronger against NDA candidates.

Thus, in the first six phases of polls in Bihar, NDA is set to lose many seats compared to its tally in 2019. Only 8 seats would remain for polling in the last seventh phase of election on June 1, It is certain that INDIA bloc under young Tejaswi Yadav will emerge much stronger after 2024 Lok Sabha elections paving the process of replacing the NDA state government in 2025 state assembly polls. (IPA Service)