Next, Yi headed to Thailand, where the incumbent Prime, Srettha Thavisin, was sacked by a Constitutional Court for appointing a minister with criminal background. A new Prime Minister, the 37-year Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has been appointed to the post. Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a two-time former Prime Minister and the founder of The Phew Thai Party. The appointment of a young female Prime Minister in Thailand has a bearing on the political developments in Myanmar.

Thailand is the gateway to international humanitarian aid and its military is believed to have a soft corner for Myanmar's military regime and it impacts the country’s policies. The Chinese foreign minister's unscheduled visit to Myanmar ahead of his scheduled visit to Thailand has set rumour mills abuzz. In the last few weeks, unexpected regime change has taken place in Nepal and Bangladesh, with analysts wondering if there is a foreign hand in these developments. Now, Thailand is added to the list.

In recent weeks, the Myanmar military regime has seen severe setbacks, including the capture of a regional military headquarters by the resistance. Ever since, Myanmar's military government has been talking about foreign forces interfering in the country's internal affairs, hinting at China's involvement. China sells military hardware and ammunition, as do India and Thailand, to the Myanmar regime. At the same time, all these three countries also sympathise with the resistance forces fighting the regime.

China has made significant investments in Myanmar and has ambitious plans for the country under its Belt and Road programme. In an environment where the Myanmar military is fast losing its control over the country, all these countries so far working with the Myanmar military regime are recalibrating their strategies. In this context, the sudden visit of the Chinese foreign minister to Myanmar ahead of his Thailand visit is likely having more to it than meets the eyes.

Thailand can convince the Myanmar military to strike a compromise. It's because of Thailand's say in the ASEAN, where China is often seen as too powerful, who is better kept at bay. Thailand is also the country from where essential goods enter Myanmar. Under various sanctions, air cargo to Myanmar is not an option. In recent weeks, UN agencies revealed that Thai financial system was helping sanctioned institutions in Myanmar receive funds.

For Myanmar to see a turnaround in its current civil war, Thailand has to play a crucial role. It can assert its leadership for regional peace and stability and pressure the Myanmar regime to let a civilian government come and clear the mess they have created over the past three years. If a regime change is not effected through mediation, Myanmar can take longer to return to normalcy due to all the violence and bad blood if the resistance captures power by force.

There is one more reason why Thailand at this stage is more likely to assert its influence for peace in Myanmar. The 72-year-old Thai monarch Maha Vajiralongkorn is under intense pressure from the people to make the laws involving the royalty less strict. He is also believed to be weighed down by succession plans that he has yet not chalked out. In a recent interaction with the media, Vajiralongkorn said that Thailand is all about compromises, hinting he may be ready for a compromise on the strict royal laws. The Thai King controls the Thai military, and it might succeed if he comes on board with a peace plan for Myanmar.

Given the emerging power equations in Thailand, where Queen Suthida and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra are expected to wield considerable power in the next three to five years, the presence of Aung San Suu Kyi in neighbouring Myanmar will be another layer of support for them. China doesn't open its cards, but what the world knows about them is they care about their investments and business interests. In the changing ground reality in Myanmar, China would need to tweak its policies and be seen as a facilitator rather than a roadblock for peace in Myanmar. This alone would help its business and investments in Myanmar. (IPA Service)