What could prove to be an eye opener for the common voters is not the bail in itself, though it is the most significant event in AAP vs BJP political battle, but the observations made by the Supreme Court Bench. The bench said that Kejriwal’s “prolonged incarceration amounts to unjust deprivation of liberty” especially without trial; “further detention by CBI under the same predicate offence” case of ED in which Kejriwal had already got bail was untenable; and “CBI’s arrest was perhaps to frustrate bail granted to Arvind Kejriwal in ED case” etc.

Kejriwal’s deputy Manish Sisodia, AAP leader Sanjay Singh, and BRS leader K Kavita have already been granted bail in the same excise policy case with very disparaging observations against the CBI and ED. The observations have already created a public perception that Kejriwal’s and other AAP and BRS leader’s arrest were a result of political conspiracy thatched by PM Narendra Modi led government, and acted upon in connivance with CBI and ED. Such a perception, whether right or wrong, could tilt the political balance against the BJP and in favour of AAP.

The immediate impact of bail to Kejriwal will be felt in Haryana Vidhan Sabha election which is rescheduled to be held on October 5. AAP and Congress have contested the Lok Sabha election as INDIA bloc constituents. Congress had contested 9 of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state while AAP had contested only one. Congress won 5 seats while AAP lost the single seat Kurukshetra where it had contested. Vidhan Sabha segment wise political outcome shows that AAP had established lead in 4 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, while the Congress had a lead in 42 Vidhan Sabha constituency, out of total 90 seats in the Haryana assembly.

Here lies the difficulty. Though the Congress is resurgent, and contested in alliance with AAP, the party could not gain lead on 46 assembly constituency segments, the magic number which it requires to win to form its government in the state. Combined together they had gained lead on 46 seats. Congress-AAP alliance seat sharing talks have already failed, and both the parties are contesting on all 90 seats. Today, September 13, is the last date of scrutiny of nominations.

With Kejriwal is out on bail on Friday and there are three days more to the last date for withdrawal of candidatures on September 16. Both the leaders of INDIA alliance – AAP Supremo Kejriwal and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – need to have a second thought on the broken alliance between the two in connection with Haryana elections, since both the party in need of each other to defeat the ruling BJP in the state. There are leaders in both the parties who entertain a hope of at least a tactical alliance, if regular pre-poll alliance is not possible. AAP contesting on its own under the leadership of an active campaign by Kejriwal can potentially damage the prospect of both the BJP and Congress in Haryana, and would make the political outcome very uncertain, especially when two other political alliances are in the fray – JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP-HLP.

As for Delhi is concerned, election to its Vidhan Sabha will be held before February 15, 2025 when the term of the House is to expire. AAP has 62 seats out of the total 70, while BJP has only 8 seats in the Vidhan Sabha. Kejriwal’s AAP has been successful in keeping BJP out of power in the UT in every election held since 2015. Congress has no seat in the assembly. AAP had even truncated 15 years of BJP rule in MCD in 2022.

However, the BJP has not lost all its hopes. It won all the 7 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, and again in 2024. Though its share of votes has been reduced by 2.5 per cent in 2024 Lok Sabha election, it was able to gain lead in 52 Vidhan Sabha assembly segments as against its current only 8 seats in the Vidhan Sabha.

On the other hand, AAP could establish its lead on only 10 Vidhan Sabha segments as against its current strength of 62 in the house, as the detailed Lok Sabha election result 2024 shows. However, two things are noteworthy – first Kejriwal was put behind bar while his deputy Manish Sisodia was already in jail. Several other AAP leaders were also in jail while many others were being harassed by Central investigating agencies. Supreme Court granted interim bail to Kejriwal at almost the fag end of election campaign. In spite of all these, AAP’s share of votes had registered about 6 per cent increase.

AAP had contested Delhi Lok Sabha election 2024 in alliance with Congress. INDIA bloc was able to bag 43.08 per cent as against BJP’s 54.35 per cent, was a significant achievement for the alliance given AAP leaders in jail while only junior leaders were campaigning.

Now, just before couple of months ahead of Delhi election, bail to Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, has drastically altered the political situation on the ground. AAP rank and file has suddenly reverted to an upbeat mood, and they think they could repeat their 2020 Vidhan Sabha performance or even get more due to newly added sympathy votes as their leaders were seen as victims of the BJP’s top-level conspiracy against them. In 2020, AAP had won 62 seats leaving only 8 for the BJP. AAP had a record of winning 67 seats in 2015 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election leaving only 3 out of 70 seats in the state.

The current political scenario on the ground suggests that both the Congress and AAP will gain if united, and may suffer if divided, both in Haryana and Delhi. BJP needs to reframe their political strategy to face the threat to its political prospect after Supreme Court’s granting bail to AAP leaders. However, Kejriwal is still not out of woods, since there are other half a dozen cases against him, as Union Minister of Home Amit Shah had said a few months ago. (IPA Service)