The movement of the doctors has received unprecedented support from the common citizens of Kolkata, especially women and in the last six weeks since the gruesome rape and murder of the 31 year old doctor in her work room in the hospital after midnight of August 8, thousands of women including the young stars of the film, television and other entertainment sectors, have joined the movement with candlelight processions as also observing two nights as “Reclaim The Night”, declaring that the women in Kolkata will enjoy freedom of movement both in day and night.

Right now, the Supreme Court is seized of the issue. The next hearing is scheduled on September 27. The CBI will be updating its latest report on investigations and West Bengal government will also be submitting its status report. At the last hearing on September 17, Supreme Court directed the West Bengal government to take the needed steps for ensuring security in the hospitals within three days.. No fresh directive was given to the doctors for joining their duties immediately despite pleas made by the state government.

What is the likely impact of the junior doctors agitation and the civil society upsurge in their support on the volatile political situation in the state? Is there any real threat to the Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress government after 13 years of its rule? How the main opposition party BJP is going to get political mileage from the outburst of anger against the Trinamool as a ruling party? Will the CPI(M) with no presence in state assembly as also in Lok Sabha from the state remerge in the state politics as an alternative to TMC along with the BJP? These are the questions that are being discussed among the people in the state in the wake of the civil society upsurge with the participation of thousands of women and common people.

Let us start with a few signals from the doctors movement. For the first time in her 13 years rule since 2011 assembly elections, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was seen to be bowing down to the continuing pressure of the doctors front one by one and finally acceding to all demands. The doctors were setting the agenda one after another. She was only reacting. During protracted negotiations, the doctors were always on front foot , CM and his officials were on backfoot. Even now, the doctors after joining emergency services have acquired the right to decide their SOP. It will be a virtual parallel administration in the hospitals for next few days till the junior doctors front announces their full participation in normal duties.

Mamata Banerjee had to blink to the protracted pressure from the doctors because their demands were genuine. The pro-TMC doctors lobby has been controlling the state run hospitals and many of them resorted to corrupt practices. Many more exposures may come up after thorough investigations by the CBI. Mamata is worried at the coming Supreme Court proceedings. It was not politically prudent for her to allow the agitation further without considering their demands.

At political level, the state government had information that both the BJP and the CPI(M) have been egging the doctors front through their supporters to prolong the agitation till pujas and the police department was worried that any bloody clash due to the agitation by the opposition, will further intensify the movement giving it wider dimension. Mamata rightfully wanted to avert that possibility. The BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari was reported to have said only a few dead bodies would be needed to oust Mamata from the government. Mamata asked the police to show maximum restraint defying all provocations. That finally helped.

The intensity of the doctors movement has eased with partial withdrawal of cease work. The opposition parties may still continue the agitation against the TMC government demanding fair trial from the CBI but the focus has shifted to the central agency CBI. from the Mamata government. The Puja festival fever has already started and generally, little political activities take place in Bengal during the festival period till Diwali. This year it is on October 31. Both the BJP and the CPI(M) will have to dilute their programmes now as the Puja days approach in the first part of October.

The political situation in the state has slightly eased but it is still tense and fluid. The doctors body will decide the next course of action. If after September 27 hearing of the Supreme Court, and the effective implementation of the state government directives, the doctors resume normal services, that will take the steam out of the opposition agitation against the Mamata government now.

But still what is the political mileage of the opposition parties from the unprecedented civil society upsurge in favour of the agitation of the doctors and the speedy justice for the crime against the R G Kar doctor? As regards the BJP, it is the only opposition party in the state assembly with 70 plus seats out of the total of 294. The party has not gained much. In fact, the party leaders were cold shouldered by the striking doctors and the party leaders also organised their own dharnas not attended by many people.. The party leaders are in fact disappointed though they have drawn up plans to continue their own agitation at district level.

As regards the CPI(M), the party could activate its young cadres and make some impact through the movement. The party took part in the civil society upsurge and helped the organisers in doing planning. But essentially, both the doctors movement and the civil society movement organisers steered clear of both the BJP and the CPI(M).. The Congress virtually had no role though the party organised dharnas at a few places. In sum, among the opposition parties, the CPI(M) only got some small political mileage from the civil society. Many of its old workers who were inactive were seen participating after a long time.. But there are doubts to what extent, the CPI(M) can capitalize even this small gain into electoral terms as the party organization is crippled in the districts.

In November, ten by polls will be held in Bengal to the state assembly. That is the immediate forum for the test of the strength of the contesting parties in elections.. All these constituencies are in rural and semi urban areas. The BJP will try its best to capitalise on the TMC discomfiture on R G Kar issue in the by polls.TMC will also mobilise its resources to ensure that the party wins all ten assembly seats defeating the BJP

In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 12 seats as against 29 won by the TMC. The Congress got one while the CPI(M) got none like 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This time, also, the CPI(M) led Left Front will be fielding candidates either on its own or in alliance with the Congress. In the by polls to four state assemblies held a month after the Lok Sabha polls, TMC got all seats with higher percentage of votes defeating BJP in all the seats. Both the CPI(M) and the Congress forfeited their deposits. In the by polls, the CPI(M)’s vote share was around 5 per cent. It was 5.67 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The main feature of the civil society movement was the participation of the educated middle class of Kolkata including upper class women and students. The feeling was genuine. But there was little or no participation of the women of underprivileged class or the workers including the daily wagers. These lower strata of the population forms the base of Mamata Banerjee and they are much more in number. As long as this section sticks to their didi whom they consider as their own, all CPI(M) and BJP optics will be of no use in electoral terms. But still, the November by polls will be good indicator to show whether there has been even a small crack in the support base of Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee. After November by polls, no other elections are scheduled till the next assembly polls in April/May 2026. (IPA Service)