The latest news that is being spread in a particular manner is to hoodwink the people of India. Information is all right – India’s economy has reached $4.3 trillion in 2025, which was $2.1 trillion in 2015. It is a news that is fit to print, but the million dollar question is what is fit to think on this news? Many delivered their opinion, ‘historic milestone’ since India doubled its GDP in 10 years, and is set to overtake Japan soon, and Germany by 2027 in a bid to hypnotize over 80 crore people who has no food to eat and government needs to supply them free foodgrain, and over 97 crore people who are unable have required nutrition to survive with good health. Has GDP growth rate any meaning for these people, at a time when PM Narendra Modi’s policy of development and GDP growth rate has been driving inequality at unprecedented speed? Should the Real income of the majority of the people despite such a growth in GDP is not a matter of serious concern?

What should we then think about the news of India’s GDP growth? Let us dive deep on the data that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released, since any data needs to be reported in perspective, that does not conceal the other facts, or mislead us to ignore the other stark realities.

The new is that India is on track to surpass Japan’s GDP in few months in 2025, and could overtake Germany by 2027. Japan’s GDP is $4.4 trillion now, and India’s GDP is $4.3 trillion. Even if India surpasses the Japan’s economy within few months, it could not substantially alter the living condition of Indians. World Bank’s GNI per capita income for India is $10,020 on PPP basis (2023), while Japan’s per capita income is $33,766. It means even when India’s economy will be bigger than Japan’s, per capita income of the Japan will be over three times the per capita income of India’s. It is where India, needs to do something, to increase the income of people in general as Japan had done. India must not continue declining real income of the common people, making 80 crore of people dependent on free government foodgrain, and 97 crore people devoid of nutrition they require to survive. Drumming up on GDP growth should not drown the voice of the miserable people.

Further, Germany’s GDP is $4.9 trillion now. India is set to surpass Germany in the second quarter of 2027. It was suggested that India could add $1 trillion to its GDP by every 1.5 years at the present rate of growth. Germany’s per capita income as per World Bank in 2023 was $73,180 which is over 7 times of the India’s per capital income. Even if India surpasses Germany in GDP growth rate, common people in India will have far less per capita income than of the people of Germany.

Let us assume that India becomes the third largest economy of the world by 2027, only after the United States of America and China. What does it mean? Let us see on the figures. United States economy is of $30.3 trillion, and China’s economy is of $19.5 trillion. It means China’s economy is only little less than 5 times, and US economy is about 7.5 times the economy of India. China’s economy has been rising by 76 per cent, and US economy by 66 per cent. According to World Bank per capita income in China is $24,360 and $82,340 which are 2.5 and over 8 times of India’s per capita income. Even if India doubled its GDP in last 10 year, we are nowhere near the top five economies in the world.

On the other hand, it should also be noted that there are many countries which are not the biggest five economies of the word but has far better per capital income level, such as Canada with $53,431, which is over five times of India’s. Who are then better – Indians or Canadians? Canada is 9th largest economy of the world, and India is 5th largest. Size of the economy obviously does not matter if people’s real income does not rise as it is happening in India under PM Narendra Modi. If there is intention as Canada has shown, India can improve real income of people (not only a few rich). What prevents PM Narendra Modi in doing that even when India’s economy is larger than that of Canada?

To compare with China GDP, India will need to add three other India of the current economic size. To compare with the United States, India needs to add 6 other India. India must therefore face the reality at the ground level, both on the size of the economy, and per capital income.

Let us have a look at the UNDP’s Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024. It says that the five countries with the largest number of people living in poverty are India (234 million), which is medium HDI, and Pakistan (93 million), Ethiopia (86 million), Nigeria (74 million) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (66 million), all low HDI. Together, these five countries account for nearly half (48.1 percent) of the 1.1 billion poor people. Where is India then with its becoming and boasting 5th largest economy of the world?

As for wealth inequality, India scored 73 in 2023 Gini index. The worst six are – South Africa with a score of 82, Brazil 81, United Arab Emirates 77, Saudi Arabia 77, Sweden 75 and the United States 75. Condition of India is worsening fast – in 2008, it scored 62.

All these clearly show that India’s becoming 5th largest economy with fastest growing tag has also incidence of highest poverty in the world and 7th worst wealth inequality. The direction in which GDP is growing under PM Narendra Modi is a serious matter. (IPA Service)