The pointed snub, amounting virtually to an act of discourtesy, was in protest against what might be considered a relatively minor faux pas committed by the BJP in publishing advertisements in Bihar newspapers extolling Narendra Modi. That the latter is persona non grata to the Bihar Chief minister has never been a secret. Nitish Kumar has always been reluctant to be seen in the company of his Gujarat counterpart for fear of alienating the Muslims. It was rather thoughtless, therefore, of the sponsors of the advertisements to publish a year-old picture showing Nitish Kumar clasping hands with Modi at an election rally in Ludhiana.

However, Nitish Kumar's over-the-top reaction showed that he was looking for an opportunity to hit out at the BJP. It wasn't only the picture which angered Nitish Kumar. He also took umbrage over Gujarat's claims of contributions to the flood victims in Bihar, saying that one did not boast about donations. The targeting of Modi, however, is not without a purpose. If Nitish Kumar has made up his mind to break with the BJP before the ensuing assembly elections, Modi's anti-minority image can prove to be a convenient excuse.

It is too early to say, of course, whether the breach will take place. Even as Nitish Kumar was venting his ire, the Janata Dal (United) chief, Sharad Yadav, distanced himself from the chief minister and maintained that all was well between the two parties. It is necessary to remember, however, that Nitish Kumar is not as enthusiastic about the quotas for OBCs and Muslims in the women's reservations bill as Sharad Yadav, who has teamed up with Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh on this issue.

Since Nitish Kumar has formulated his own caste alliances in Bihar by consolidating the extreme backward classes (EBCs) and sections of the Dalits minus the Paswans against Lalu Prasad's RJD and Ramvilas Paswan's LJP, he is likely to frown upon the bonhomie between the Yadav trio of Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh and Sharad Yadav. In any event, Nitish Kumar is perfectly aware that he is the JD (U)'s main vote-catcher in Bihar, and not Sharad Yadav. His main plank also is his development-oriented policies.

It is not without reason, therefore, that in his speech in Patna, Narendra Modi credited the BJP's Sushil Modi, who is Bihar's deputy chief minister and finance minister, with the state's developmental efforts. It is unlikely, however, that this rather childish attempt by the Gujarat strong man to downgrade Nitish Kumar made the audience see Sushil Modi in a new light because the Bihar chief minister has long established himself as the driving force behind the state's development projects. Besides, Nitish Kumar has ensured that Sushil Modi maintains a low profile.

The fact that apart from L.K.Advani, none of the other speakers at the BJP rally mentioned Nitish Kumar's name sends out disconcerting signals about the relations between the two allies. If the two do fall apart, then Nitish Kumar will be emulating Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee in dumping the BJP.

The departures of Patnaik and Banerjee brought down the total of parties in the NDA from a high of 24 in Atal Behari Vajpayee's time to the present three - the JD (U), the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena. Of these, the ties between the BJP and the Shiv Sena are not all that well. The latter supported Pratibha Patil, a Maharashtrian, for the President's post over the NDA's Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, and Bal Thackeray also said that he preferred Sharad Pawar, another Maharashtrian, as the prime minister in place of the NDA's Advani.

Nitish Kumar is well aware, therefore, that the BJP is no longer what it was in Vajpayee's time. Although it is in power in six states on its own and in two - Bihar and Punjab - along with allies, and has 100-plus M.P.s, it fails to give the impression of being a party of the future. The reason is undoubtedly the disarray at its central level where Nitin Gadkari's imposition at the top by the RSS hasn't been a great help in infusing new life into the party.

Given the BJP's moribund state, it is doubtful how useful it will be in mobilizing the upper castes in Bihar, especially when the Congress is showing signs of life because of Rahul Gandhi's efforts. If there is an understanding between the Congress, the RJD and the LJP, the loss of Muslim votes because of the BJP will hit the JD (U) quite hard. It is a risk which Nitish Kumar is evidently unwilling to take. (IPA Service)