As Sarma became chief minister of Assam for the second straight term on May 12 [third BJP-led ministry] and given his past record of party-hopping and unhesitatingly backtracking whenever his utterances become controversial, the moot point in Assam’s public domain, including political circles, now is whether he will resume his muslim bashing and advocate maltreatment for them as he did before the election. It won’t be surprising, knowledgeable quarters told IPA News, arguing that the election outcome has paved the way for stepped up efforts by the BJP-led ministry under Sarma’s stewardship to protect indigenous identity, reclaim encroached land and push back against what saffron camp’s political leadership calls “demographic aggression” by Bangladeshi origin ‘miya muslims’. On Wednesday, May 13, he sort of reconfirmed his ministry’s resolve to implement the Uniform Civil Code, a major promise in BJP’s poll manifesto.

Strategic planning enabled the BJP-headed coalition to bag as many as 102 seats in the 126-member House ; BJP itself secured 82 seats out of 90 it had fought. Compared to its 2021 tally, it won 22 seats more and the contested-seat vote share at 54.95 per cent marked a 9.24 point upswing. Its partners – Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodo People’s Front (BPF) – secured 10 seats each. The BPF show was better ; it contested on 11 seats and the vote share was 13 points higher at 50.77 per cent. The rise of BJP has cost not only the Congress but also AGP, which fought in 26 constituencies, garner 6.26 point lower vote share at 26.65 per cent. But, its seat tally was one more at 10. [Figures quoted from The Hindu analysis in its May 5 edition, the study clarified that contested vote share refers to the share of votes secured by a party in the constituencies it contested].

BJP mouthpiece Organiser, whose masthead claims it to be the ‘Voice of the nation, in its May 12 edition wrote : “The 2026 Assam Assembly election results tell a story that goes far beyond mere numbers … this was the harvest of a decade-long effort … For … Sarma, the mandate is a vindication of a bold and often controversial political strategy ….” The 102 seats captured are Hindu majority ones. The result shows a clear consolidation of Hindu votes “even though the intensity is much lower than the regular muslim vote consolidation”. The Congress ruled Assam for nearly 60 years ; from the start the party practiced minority- appeasement politics. Borders were opened for Bangladeshi infiltrators. The demographic profile underwent a significant change with nine districts becoming ‘miya-muslim’-dominated, Organiser has observed in its result analysis.

In a strange coincidence, the Organiser’s observations find echo in the Congress performance. The Congress bagged just 19 seats out of 99 it fought on. The tally was 10 less on 2021 and the contested vote share was 37.22 per cent – 2.23 points down. Of the 19 victors, 18 are muslims and just one Hindu. No wonder, some of its detractors have gone to the extent calling the party a version of muslim league in Assam.

In retrospect it appears BJP began its electoral journey this time round under fortuitous circumstances deriving from the controversial delimitation carried out in August 2023 with reference to 2001 census (not 2011 census). In response to widespread inquisitiveness about 2001 census being the basis, officially Constitutional provision relevant to Assam was cited. The charge of ‘manoeuvred’ delimitation against BJP, however, stuck.

But, that exercise resulted in shrinkage of muslim-majority seats to 22 from 32, increase in SC seat by one to 9 and raise in ST seats to 19 from 16. In Bodoland districts, the seat number increased to 15 from 11. The impressive performance of the BJP-led combine may be ascribed to the tea belt across the Brahmaputra Valley where tea tribes of adivasi-origin labour communities in that 43 out of the total 45 seats went to the coalition. Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren for the first time fielded his party’s candidates in a number of these seats ; but despite a not-so-poor performance, he could not dent the ruling regime’s strong position.

Though a somewhat late entrant in BJP’s ‘preferably no muslim candidate and certainly no muslim minister’ policy, Assam under Sarma’s chiefministership seems to have become a regular follower of that policy. In seat-sharing exercise spread over several sessions, Sarma cleverly managed to ensure that the BJP list does not have a single muslim candidate. But, given the fact that Assam’s population has 35 per cent muslims.

Their total elimination is difficult at this stage. He got AGP to accommodate ‘eligible’ candidates. Thus, as it turned out, out of its quota of 26 seats, 13 went to muslims and “much to the satisfaction of Sarma”, none of them won. So, the straight second term chief minister does not have to bother about accommodating a muslim in his ministry. This, in the state of Assam, which had a muslim woman, Anwara Taimur, as chief minister – though for a relatively short period --- from December 6, 1980 to June 30, 1981 in between spells of President’s rule in the then prevailing disturbed conditions in the state. (IPA Service)