Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate model forecasts, says India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.

Based on this, in an updated second long-range forecast on May 29, 2026 for the forthcoming southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall during June-September, the IMD has projected 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole.

On April 13, the IMD had issued the first-stage forecast consisting of quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal rainfall. At that time IMD had projected a normal monsoon to be 92 per cent with a model error of ±5%. IMD had expecting a weak La Nina-like conditions transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions.

However, things changed fast. Quantitatively, for India as a whole, IMD has now predicted lower by 2 per cent and also reduced error level by ±1%. The current prediction of 90 per cent rainfall with probable error of ±4% is a matter of serious concern because normal rainfall in India is in the range of 96-104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm during the monsoon season of four months between June and September.

This means India is staring at drought, as the IMD projection indicates, but does not say in words. Since 2016, that is under Modi Raj, the IMD has officially decided to stop using the term “drought” in its reports and forecasts, and replaced the term with two different terms “deficient” (rainfall deficiency 40% and covering over 40% of the area). Thereafter, the responsibility of declaration of a “draught” is on the state governments, based on agriculture and hydrological factors.

Despite the changes in definition and responsibility of the state, PM Narendra Modi government will have to take the prediction seriously, because it may impact the general life conditions of the people of the country on account of food security, and also the adverse impact on the economy that the deficient rainfall is likely to cause. The government has to take actions quickly from now, since June, the first month of the monsoon, is also projected to be below normal, which will be likely less than 92 per cent.

Earlier, the Southwest monsoon was expected to come by May 26 on the Indian land, but it is still in the sea. IMD now expects that it will come over parts of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the next seven days in the first week of June. Monsoon is delayed in India this year, and El Nino conditions, has weakened the monsoon. It should also be noted that India has historically witnessed deficient rainfall during several El Nino years, at times leading to drought conditions in the country.

Nevertheless, for the Northeast India, IMD has predicted normal rainfall in the range of 94-106 per cent of LPA. For Central and South Peninsular India, it predicted less than 94 per cent of LPA, while for Northwest India even below 92 per cent.

The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to receive below normal rainfall less than 94 per cent. Below-normal rainfall is most likely over most part of the country, except some areas over northwest and northeast India, eastern parts of south peninsula and adjoining areas of east-central India and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above normal rainfall is likely, said IMD.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are observed over the Indian Ocean, IMD said. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season.

The IMD forecast is based on the new strategy being used since 2021. For this, a newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system is used. The MME system utilizes simulations from the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) sourced from various global climate prediction and research centres, including IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.

Given the deficient rain forecast probability is 60 per cent, below normal 24 per cent, normal 14 per cent and above normal 2 per cent, India needs to prepare itself for the worst in the midst of multiple crises the country has fallen into. (IPA Service)