There is a sizeable section in the BJP, not to mention the corporate sector, which feels that Modi is the right man for the coveted post. Even during the campaign for the last general election, when L.K.Advani was the BJP's PM-in-waiting, Arun Shourie had underlined Modi's fitness for the job. He was supported by several others like Arun Jaitley, a long-time ally of the Gujarat chief minister, and Venkaiah Naidu.

Although they clarified that they were thinking of him only as a future prime minister and not as a replacement for Advani, the BJP's and the NDA's subsequent defeat made leaders like Sharad Yadav of the Janata Dal (United) allege that it was Modi's projection as the PM which was responsible for the setback.

Now, by singling Modi out as his bete noire, Nitish Kumar has highlighted the Gujarat strong man's main disadvantage - his anti-minority image, which makes him persona non grata to a large section of people outside the saffron camp.

In a sense, this handicap makes Modi the exact opposite of Atal Behari Vajpayee. While the latter's USP was his wide acceptability, Modi's appeal is severely limited. Up to now, this drawback was seen by the saffron brigade as a fad of the secular camp, which could be gradually overcome through a continuing emphasis on Modi's role in Gujarat's development.

Modi himself has been keen to put the stigma of the 2002 riots behind him and emphasize his development-oriented record. True, it has not been easy to do so since the investigations into the riots by the Special Investigation Team set up by the Supreme Court has kept Modi in the spotlight. Recently, Modi suffered the ignominy of being cross-examined by the SIT, the first chief minister who had to take his place in the dock in an inquiry relating to a criminal offence. Not surprisingly, Modi later challenged the SIT's authority to summon him.

Despite these difficulties, the BJP probably hoped that Modi's relative young age for a politician - he is 60 - will finally enable him to overcome the present hurdles. But, as Nitish Kumar's objections even to be seen in the same picture frame with him shows, Modi will continue to be haunted by his role in the 2002 riots in the foreseeable future.

When the picture was taken last year, Nitish Kumar was probably hedging his bets about the BJP's chances. But now that he is fairly sure that the party is on a downhill slope, he can afford to be particularly nasty to Modi to show the minorities that his heart remains secular. If a major ally of the BJP wants to keep Modi at arm's length so as not to scare away the minorities, it is easy to understand the antipathy towards him outside the saffron camp.

As a result, the BJP itself will now become wary of Modi, who had become a virtual poster boy for the party a few years ago when even the term, Moditva, was coined to denote a hawkish form of Hindutva, which was expected to carry the party to further glories.

Now, these perceptions have been turned upside down. If Modi is kept away from the election campaigns by the BJP's allies for fear of alienating the Muslims and Christians, then some of the party's own governments like the ones in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will be equally nervous. Neither Shivraj Singh Chauhan nor Raman Singh will be too eager to go out of his way to lose the minority votes by inviting Modi to campaign for the BJP.

Besides, the BJP itself is currently unsure of its future direction. It has realized that not only has the temple card lost its value, any recourse to emotional issues may draw attention to the party's earlier stridency and, therefore, be seen as a cynical ploy. The heavy political price which the BJP had to pay in Odisha following the Sangh parivar's attacks on Christians has taught the party that the heady days of the anti-minority offensive of the early Nineties were over.

The changed atmosphere has made even the RSS distance itself from Pragya Thakur, Lt. Col. Srikant Purohit and others accused of Hindu terrorism although Advani and Rajnath Singh had earlier tried to persist with the familiar saffron line that the innate secularism and moderation of Hindus precluded any possibility of any one of them turning to violence and terrorism.

Although the RSS wants the BJP to stick to the Hindutva line, it wouldn't like it to be as provocative as were Advani in the earlier periods and later Rajnath Singh when the rath yatri of 1990 mellowed down. Instead, the amiable Nitin Gadkari is expected to follow a moderate course where Modi will be a misfit. (IPA Service)