Releasing the outlook for the rainfall during second half of the South-West Monsoon Season (August-September), IMD has said the rainfall over the entire country during this period is likely to be below normal that is below 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The Global Seasonal Climate Update released by the WMO for August-September-October 2026, has also predicted below normal rainfall probabilities.

According to the IMD, the LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during the August to September period, based on historical data of 1971 to 2020 is 422.8 mm. During August-September overall forecast of rainfall is blow 94 per cent, and it will cover very likely over many parts of the country except some parts of the Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of northwest India and East & Northeast India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

WMO rainfall outlook for the next season August-September-October has flagged an extensive region of below-normal rainfall probabilities. This broad dry signal encompasses widespread marine zones, manifesting as strong enhancements in the probability for below-normal rainfall over both the tropical Indian Ocean and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, as well as a horseshoe pattern extending into the Northern and Southern Hemispheres starting at around 120°E. The Indian Subcontinent features an enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall, exhibiting high model consistency across the region.

WMO forecast blames it on El Nino conditions. It says that El Nino conditions recorded a seasonal mean Niño 3.4 index value of 1.0°C during April-May-June 2026, which rose sharply from 0.5°C in April to 1.6°C in June. Across other ocean basins, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a neutral phase. However, for the August-September-October 2026 season, the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates a rapid development toward strong El Niño conditions.

The seasonal average SST anomaly is forecast to reach, WMO forecast says, approximately 2.9°C during this period, with the intensification trajectory peaking in November. The spread among individual forecast systems remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence. In the Indian Ocean, a positive IOD phase is also expected to develop, reaching during this period to a seasonal mean value of 0.6°C.

IMD on the other hand, says that during August 2026, monthly average maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most parts of the country. However, some areas of Northwest and Central India, along with isolated regions of the adjoining Southern Peninsula, are likely to experience normal to below-normal monthly average maximum temperatures during the month.

In August 2026, the monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country. No significant signal is indicated by the model over the white-shaded land areas of the country, IMD says.

IMD report stated, “Currently, moderate El Niño conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season.”

Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) also indicate a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions throughout the remaining period of the Southwest Monsoon season.

IMD report says that at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist throughout the Southwest Monsoon season. However, climate forecasts from some international forecasting centres suggest that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during September 2026.

WMO’s Surface Temperature Outlook for the August-September-October 2026 season says that the multi-model ensemble forecasts project a nearly universal global dominance for enhancement in probabilities for above-normal temperatures over landmasses. This warming trend is especially pronounced north of 60°S, where a large increase in probabilities for above-normal temperature is reinforced by high model consistency.

In the northern hemisphere, a large increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures covers Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Subcontinent, eastern Asia, western parts of North America below 60°N, Central America, and the Caribbean. Model consistency across these regions is moderate to strong. A widespread tendency for above-normal temperatures also covers the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic.

In this given scenario, Union Government of India must prepare for any eventuality because India’s agriculture is mostly dependent of Monsoon. In the event of below normal rainfall, employment opportunities and food security for the people of the country would be adversely impacted.

Though IMD had predicted below normal rainfall also for July, but the month turned out to be a period of near normal rainfall, specially in the Central India. IMD attributed this to “intra-seasonal variability” because a record of 24 days were under influence of low pressure systems, which was much more than the average of 13.5 days. Even though India had deficient rainfall of about 13 per cent in July. Moreover, Monsoon in July flooded a large part of the country which brought additional distress to the government and the people.

It may be recalled that there was 35-40 per cent deficient rainfall, that is at the beginning of the monsoon. We are in the middle of the Monsoon Season, and if the next two or three months prove to be rain deficient period, then India will be in great trouble. (IPA Service)