The November mid term elections are a crucial factor for Obama and Democrats. In November polls, the US will elect the 112th Congress and one third of the Senate. How much will the economy, unemployment, federal spending, taxes, and record deficits will affect the mid term polls is not clear.

Voters seem to have divided opinion about both political parties. While the Republican Party has improved significantly and for the first time in years the GOP's favorable ratings nearly equal the Democratic Party's popularity, a defeat in November polls could cause the Democrats lose their control over both chambers of the US Congress. For Obama it will become more difficult to run the administration with a hostile Congress.

The mid-term polls are crucial not only for the Democrats but also for Obama personally. Unless they win 60 seats in the 100 member Senate, Republicans will be able to block or at least slow down a great deal of legislation. Washington insiders know, there is one thing that a first-term administration wants more than anything which is a second term. And Obama has all plans to run for a second term. Come January 2011, his preparations for the next presidential elections will begin. If he has entered the White House in 2008 with his “Yes, We can” slogan, he has to seek a second term with his record of achievements - “Yes, We have done”.

But what should be worrying the White House is the sliding popularity rating of the President from the heights he was last year. Critics are loud that the Middle East remains intractable, North Korea nuclear, Iraq and Afghanistan unsettled, and Iran difficult.

The Washington Quarterly of April 10, 2010 lists at least three reasons. The first is economy which is slowly limping back. The job situation continues to be a cause for concern. Although Obama has taken this as his first priority and has persuaded the congress to pump in billions of dollars for the bail out, things are not going as fast as people expect.

The second is Obama's popularity ratings. It claims that there is a strong relationship between the president's popularity ratings and the election results. Negative economic views are closely associated with anti-incumbency and a preference for Republican candidates.

The third is that the Democrats in the past two years had picked up the traditional GOP seats and now it is difficult for them to defend it. The Republicans are hoping to get back some of their seats this time.

Political pundits also cite many other reasons. The fourth is the foreign policy which is not going anywhere in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. The people are getting war weary and Obama's critics are growing in number on his Afghan policy. Although in his first year the President had taken a bold step in increasing the number of American troops in Afghanistan to over 100000, he has also announced withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2011 July. The troop increase is proving a tough sell — with the US struggling with record budget deficits and high unemployment, the Congress is wary of spending more dollars on the war. Many Democrats also worry it could hurt them in the November elections, particularly if more body bags arrive.

The fifth is the deficit. With a record budget deficit in the current fiscal year Obama's promised tax cuts for the middle-class may prove unaffordable. The next year is also not too promising.

Sixth, it is not the GOP that holds the key to the Obama presidency, but his own party, which must find a way to resolve its internal conflicts and show that it can get things done. Obama, due to his sudden rise in the party has not yet acquired the kind of control as compared to his predecessors. He is low key even in his campaign for the mid term poll.

Seventh, the recent British Petroleum oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has become an unexpected catastrophe for Obama to handle. The media and the public was critical of his initial way of handling the issue but soon Obama showed his boldness in tackling the British Petroleum. The Gulf Coast oil spill could carry a tremendous political price for Obama — perhaps putting re-election in 2012 out of his reach.

Eighth, the Congress is not supportive of Obama. With great difficulty the health reforms and education reforms were pushed through. The nomination of Kalgan for Supreme Court judge has shown the fight he has to face with the Republicans in getting his candidates through.

However, all these do not mean that Obama is not doing at all well as the President. There have been instances of other presidents like Bush faring worse. He has shown adequate skill in handling situations and taken bold steps on many issues including economy, health reforms and education reforms. He has made his presence in the international community and has led on many issues including climate change. He has made personal contacts with several world leaders, be it the Russians or the Chinese or Indians and used his personal influence on finding solutions as he did in Copenhagen on climate change.

Obama will be a welcome guest in India whether he wins the polls for his party or not as the visit will pave way for stronger Indo-US ties. The Obama administration in which has at least 20 officials of Indian origin is keen to cement the ties. Obama also will make efforts to show his interest in India on account of its growing economy and huge market. His visit will be watched closely by China and Pakistan. New Delhi is bound to go all out to make him a welcome guest. (IPA Service)