That the state's situation has undergone radical transformation since early 2009 is reflected by two developments. One is that the hard won peace and normalcy achieved during the past few years has now turned into strife. The other is the loss of the hardliner separatists grip over the Valley people.

After nearly half a decade of strong counter-terrorism measures, the security forces had gained an upper hand over the Pakistan-backed terrorists resulting in sharp fall in terrorist violence and infiltrations from across the border. Near normalcy and peace had returned to the state. Tourists had started flocking to the “paradise on earth”. Shooting of films was resumed. With the discos reopening, night life had also returned in Srinagar.

The situation, however, began taking a U-turn after the killing of three persons in Bomai in north Kashmir in February 2009. The government could not properly handle the fallout. Then came the Shopian rape and murder case, where the government was perceived as being party to a cover-up. Although the government's stand was vindicated by subsequent events, the Shopian case ignited people's anger against the Omar Abdullah government.

The situation was exploited by the separatists particularly by the pro-Pakistan hardliner Syed Ali Shah Geelani-led Hurriyat Conference by giving frequent calls of bandhs and marches which were well responded. There were indications of the ISI-inspired elements provoking protesters to indulge in stone-pelting which resulted in the security forces resorting to firing, sometime excessive, killing many young men. These killings triggered anger among the apparently leaderless protesting masses. The hard won peace and normalcy in the state became a casualty.

The result of these happenings was that the separatists, particularly Syed Ali Shah Geelani whose bandh and hartal calls used to evoke good response got isolated and lost their grip, whatever it was, over the people. This realization has now prompted even Geelani to ask the people to remain peaceful and adopt Gandhian methods for their protests. After the Chief Minister's emissary met him last week, he asked the protestors “to desist from arson and attacks on police stations” saying “we should take forward this movement in a peaceful manner. When we are stopped by (security forces), we should sit down and ask them to shoot us”.

One need not unduly strain oneself to fathom the reasons behind the transformation in the state's situation. The well-intentioned Omar Abdullah commanded immense goodwill when he took over as National Conference-Congress coalition's Chief Minister. But it did not take long for him to lose his positives. The main reason for this was his disconnect with the masses. Being a scion of the state's first political family he had good political grooming. But he has acted more as a drawing room Chief Minister than the peoples Chief Minister resulting in also loosening his grip over the state administration. He also failed to calm the dissenting voices in both his own party and his coalition partner faction-ridden Congress.

Despite his faults, Omar Abdullah is still the best bet in the strife-torn state. The need is that both the coalition partners and New Delhi should not allow the bet to turn into a lost gamble. They should resolutely try to make Omar a winning bet. The Chief Minister will also have to introspect and take corrective measures to recover from his shortcomings.

The responsibility for the worrying situation, however, does not lie wholly with Omar Abdullah. New Delhi is also partly, if not equally, responsible. No doubt, it rightly and firmly dealt with the Pakistan-backed separatist-terrorists which yielded very good results. But it failed to ingeniously and effectively handle the political aspect of the Kashmir problem. It talked of holding talks with all concerned including the separatists but kept the carrot hanging for long by not taking timely follow-up action. Their present isolation among their Valley's followers has brought about a change in the separatists mood which should be used by New Delhi to vigorously pursue its discussions-across-the-table plans.

The Valley's unrest may give a boost to Pakistan's lobbying for treating the Kashmir issue as top item of the agenda of India-Pakistan talks whenever these are resumed. It was Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi's insistence to treat Kashmir as the top agenda as against S.M. Krishna's stress to give priority to terrorism that caused the breakdown of the recently held India-Pakistan talks in Islamabad..

The prevailing abnormal situation in Kashmir, if not normalized soon, enhances the danger of the Pakistan's hawkish Army Chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani aggressively promoting terror in the state. It was under him as the ISI chief that the Intelligence Agency-backed terror attacks in India and on the Indian Embassy and hospital in Kabul took place. His now gaining an unusual three year extension and becoming Pakistan's dominating power centre is an ominous development for India, particularly for Kashmir.

It does not take long for remedying gravest situations by taking timely corrective measures. This should also be the case with the situation in the strife-torn Jammu and Kashmir which calls for urgent remedial measures both by New Delhi and Srinagar.

Adverse situations should make rulers more vigilant and wiser. (IPA Service)