Analysts say that a mix of factors had led to the present crisis. First of all, the decades of conflict in the society has led to the present violence. Secondly, poor governance and lack of development is another reason. Thirdly, the frustrations of the youth who want jobs are ignored. Fourthly the security mindedness of the centre and the state has irked the people of the valley. Above all the separatists are continuing their game with the help of Pakistan.

The most important cause could be the inexperience of Omar Abdullah and his deaf ears to advice. His style of functioning and his continued week- end trips to Delhi had left the centre gaSping. His choice of advisers and his inability to reach out to the frustrated youth are also reasons for the unrest. Omar is yet to fulfill his promise to set up elected local bodies. Nor has the NC-Congress alliance tried to close the gap. The result is that these young protesters have filled the vacuum.

In this scenario what are the options available? The first could be Governor's Rule. Removing a popular government and replacing it with the Central rule is not gong to be the answer to the sensitive issue. The second is to persuade the National Conference to change its leader. Perhaps Dr. Farooq Abdullah could be sent to replace his son Omar. This too is not a viable option because Omar's career will be doomed even before it began. The third option is to send a Congress chief minister like an experienced Gulam Nabi Azad but this may not be to the liking of the NC. Moreover, the Kashmir strategists in the government want a buffer and continuance of Omar suits them better than any of these other options. So for the time being, the PMO strategy is to persuade Omar to reach out to the public and also change his style of functioning.

How will this affect the ground level situation? The current spate of protests and demonstrations by the Kashmiri youth has been simmering since June and it has taken weeks to explode. Obviously both the centre and the state government were not able to read the signals properly or counter them.

What ever may be the strategy, the crisis should be resolved politically and not treated as a law and order problem. Just getting the army and imposing curfew and restrictions on the movement of the people are not going to endear the government to the people. The street protests cannot be clubbed with the violence of the nineties. It is a totally new generation of youngsters who are coming out this time. Some of them are highly qualified like doctors and engineers. They are venting their anger against the continued presence of the security forces and the killing of the innocent boys a few days ago. The priority of the centre and the state governments should be to assuage their feelings. Otherwise, they too will go the separatist way and their movement would become stronger even without a leader. A dialogue with this section is imperative.

It is six years since the Prime Minister is in the saddle and like his predecessors he too made attempts to address the Kashmir problem. But there is not much progress despite a peaceful poll in 2008. Singh had convened a round table three times and had setup five working groups, which have given their reports but they are gathering dust. He had visited Kashmir six times and announced thousands of crores of development packages. The result is disappointing.

It is certainly a welcome step that Singh had a meeting this week with a delegation of the state leaders led by Omar Abdullah and made an assuaging speech to reach out to the young.

He has also made another bold step to offer jobs to the youth and setting up of Rangarajan committee to work this out. So far many commissions and committees had been set up and this should not be seen as yet another committee whose reports will gather dust. Side by side the focus should also be on improvement of the infrastructure. Developmental measures and normal functioning of the government offices are necessary to restore peace, this has to be done with the joint efforts by both the centre and the state. The rulers should realize the continued widespread popular disaffection in the Valley, the emergence of a new generation of youth who grew up in the shadow of militancy, the reasons for their uprising and the futility of erratic crowd-control methods.

Other demands like the scrapping of the Armed Forces (special powers) act and thinning out security forces and autonomy should also be addressed. Above all, they should try and succeed in getting the people to their side.

As for Omar, his first priority should be restoration of peace and reaching out to the protesters. For this he has to revamp his administration and make sure the state government functions. It is the responsibility of the political parties to go back to their constituencies and work with the people. At this point of time they are not even able to visit their constituencies for fear of facing the anger of the people. With dynamism, the present crisis can be turned into an opportunity. (IPA Service)