Pointers are not promising. Even in one of his earlier utterances on such a day, PM said he would not promise new programmes but would focus on implementing what had been promised. That is the promise we keep looking up to all the time to see some telling results. But the visions of a “New India” he often talks are ever receding. We are back to the vagaries of agriculture and its deleterious consequences for rural incomes, productive employment and food prices affordable prices for the vast majority of India's poor and low-income humanity, rural and urban.

It is these classes - some 700-800 millions - who have borne the brunt of food price inflation, conveniently overlooked by the UPA Government right from mid-2008. It is in this milieu that the 2009 electoral promise of food security net is being held up as an earnest of Government concern and that necessitates a relook at agriculture. Apart from any likely reinvigorated thrust in agriculture, some hope may also lie with the proposed Borlaug Institute of South Asia to be established in India to make available new and improved seeds and technology to farmers. We are prone to draw comfort from such extras.

Prime Minister took justifiable pride of India becoming the “fastest growing economy” earning the respect of the world and how Government remains committed to the vision of New India in which every citizen will have a stake. No doubt enactment of “rights” to information or education and the rural employment guarantee programme extended countrywide, were cited by him without minimising “serious challenges”, including the large deficit in infrastructure building. The access to education for every child in theory has to be translated into reality, though it clearly falls within the sphere of states which, by and large, have become more assertive of their autonomy and making new demands on the Centre.

The Government certainly needs wider public support for tackling problems, whether in dealing with Naxalite violence or ensuring respect for law and order in several areas, notably in Jammu and Kashmir where unfortunately, it has not consistently pursued the parallel path of political consultations leading to a greater measure of autonomy, given the special circumstances of a state drawn into the vortex of international politics. We are treading the same ground after spells of inaction and relative neglect in many areas, not just J and K but also rights to livelihood as in land acquisition and other natural resources for the down-trodden.

Economic and Social development must, therefore, get closely integrated in the 12th plan, drawing lessons from the sad experiences so far, but this need not delay earlier actions such as on development plan for the tribal areas the Planning Commission is working on. Inflation will be an irksome drag on inclusive growth over the short term. No one complains of higher minimum support for farmers, cited by official sources as one of the factors, but that cannot cause an almost doubling of cereal prices. The Prime Minister was clearly on the defensive on inflation in his Independence Day address and expressed confidence of succeeding in the effort to bring down inflation.

The levies in the budget and post-budget rise-cum-deregulation in petrol/diesel prices have also contributed to surge in the wholesale price index. The Centre has blamed States for inaction, and we are yet to see what the committee of Chief Ministers, set up with a fanfare in January last at the height of food price inflation, produced by way of remedial measures. RBI has been calibrating monetary policy to lower inflationary expectations though it cannot be effective where supply-side deficiencies are concerned. With double-digit WPI inflation, RBI must continue to act as it deems appropriate, when it comes out with the first of its six-weekly reviews of global and domestic trends to strengthen its hold over monetary and credit policy in these extraordinary times.

Politically, the Government is coming under severe pressures, partly due to its own failings, and largely from a multi-faceted opposition with enough ammunition in their hands, as has been witnessed in Parliament from day to day. If BJP has risen from the electoral debris and is putting on muscle, Government has no comfort from the regional secular parties, with their own narrow sectional interests, and whose continued support from outside has become unpredictable. More frustrating for the UPA Government must be the internal differences even among Congress Ministers on major policy issues on the one hand and the open dissent of its two power-sharing regional allies, TMC and DMK.

The survival strategy for UPA-2 has involved a series of policy adjustments and compromises. Unobtrusively, issues of strength and stability for Government to make and implement policies have begun to arise in the murky political atmosphere. The Prime Minister has long delayed a reconstitution of the Cabinet, such as would give it a better image and engender a greater sense of confidence that Government would deliver on what it says. Public expectations from UPA-2 stand lowered and as of now, the political outlook is far from sanguine for the Government to address its own electoral promises and push through long-delayed reforms.

Adding to its difficulties would be the uncertainties surrounding the outcome of state elections, first in Bihar, then in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, before May 2011, and later UP in 2012. Questions have already come to the fore about the durability of the present DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu even though the Centre has so far put up with the nostrums of DMK Supremo Mr M. Karunanidhi. He is pitching his demands high and resisting GST in the context of forthcoming elections and his declared goal of consolidating Dravidian rule in Tamil Nadu. TMC leader Ms. Mamata Banerjee, who wants to oust Left in West Bengal, dictates her own terms for the Congress in the state and in going along with Centre in economic decision-making.

Two areas where Government wants to earn credit - growth and fiscal consolidation - should not be grudged. The Finance Minister was fighting a desperate battle to get on with the Goods and Services Act without alienating the states, along with the proposed Direct Taxes Code, for ushering in major tax reforms in fiscal year beginning April 2011. Even after the Finance Minister giving up a veto power, states are dragging their feet raising uncertainty of its introduction from April next. Equally, Government's troubles with the opposition in piloting a Nuclear Liability Bill have only underlined its current political vulnerability. (IPA Service)