A scrutiny of the Centre's eight-point formula shows that, in all probability, the Centre's peace initiative will lead to calming down of the state's violence-surcharged atmosphere. The hardliners may still organize protests. But if they use violent methods, they will face further isolation besides being firmly dealt with by the security forces. The formula will have a positive impact on the Valley's people who were agitating against the youths killing in the firing by the security forces.

While the state's mainstream political parties including Mufti Mohammaed Sayeed's PDP have welcomed the Centre' announcement, the immediate reaction of the separatists has been mixed. The moderates including the Hurriyat and Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front chiefs Mirwaiz Uman Farooq and Yaseen Malik respectively have not rejected the formula. They would react to it only after their respective executive bodies meetings. Repeating his rhetoric the hardliner Hurriyat chief Sayed Ali Shah Geelani has repeated his rhetoric of the separatist line. Although most of the clauses of his own five-point formula find response in the Centre's eight-point peace initiative, yet he has defensively described it as eyewash. .

The significance of the state's emerging political and security situation cannot be viewed without discerning the attitudes and stands different political parties and separatist groups adopt on major issues.

There has been no ideological or political unanimity on the state's future status. A strong opinion in the separatists-infested Valley and also in the mainstream political parties including the ruling National Conference favours Jammu and Kashmir's remaining an integral part of the country. They, however, want more autonomy for the state. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's PDP wants self-rule within Indian Constitution. The separatists are sharply divided. Geelani wants Jammu and Kashmir's merger with Pakistan. His separatist brethren advocate azadi (independence).

The relevance of the political parties got eroded, particularly during the past three months of street violence. After the return of near normalcy last year, the terrorist outfits - even the hardliner Hurriyat leader Geelani - had lost considerable ground. Their growing isolation was indicated by the peoples' encouraging participation in the Assembly elections and the formation of the National Conference-Congress coalition government. To begin with, even the stone-pelting by the youths angered by the security forces killings -in certain cases unjustified- did not help the separatists to end their isolation. But Geelani's frequent calls for protests and hartals against the killings provided the protesting youths an outlet to express their anger evoking popular response. This helped Geelani, to come out of his isolation. It was not without reason that during their visit to the state some of the all-party delegation members went to some of the separatist leaders residences to meet them.

The political and security scenarios in Jammu and Kashmir are, in some ways, akin to those of the terrorism-hit eighties Punjab. All the political parties had been rendered irrelevant by the Khalistan-demanding terrorists. The dominant section of the Akali leadership who had allowed the terrorists to convert Sikhs holiest Golden Temple Complex into a terrorist bastion had started toeing their line. Although even the broader sections even of the Sikhs were against the gun-totting terrorists they obeyed their diktats fearing the gun.

What proved to be a turning point in Punjab's situation was its Congress Chief Minister Beant Singh's strong political will translated into the no-holds barred methods to control terrorism. Although both New Delhi and Srinagar do not lack political will to deal with the terrorists, they have to function under certain limitations because of the complexities of the Kashmir problem.

For instance, a few months ago, New Delhi had initiated the process to withdraw the Army from certain areas due to their improved security environment and in response to the wide demand in the state. Taking advantage of the Army's scaled down presence, the terrorists stepped up violence. Consequently, New Delhi stopped the process of Army's withdrawal.

The Centre's eight point peace formula has positively responded to the issues agitating large sections of the Valley's populace. These include reviewing the deployment of security forces, hinting at devising methods for withdrawing the Armed Forces Special Powers Act from some areas and release of all youth detained for stone-pelting or similar violations of law.

Although extraneous factors are primarily responsible for Jammu and Kashmir's situation, New Delhi cannot totally be absolved of contributing to the state's mess. It failed to consistently pursue the efforts to restore normalcy. It did not take any follow-up action on the recommendations of the committee it had earlier sent to the state. Its speedy action taken now on the all-party delegation's recommendation will create conducive atmosphere for holding talks with different shades of public opinion for the restoration of normalcy. Back-channel diplomacy could be a forum for the purpose.

What needs to be watched is what strategy the ISI now adopts to foment unrest in Jammu and Kashmir. Earlier it successfully blocked the normalcy by instigating through its agents the agitated youths to adopt stone-pelting strategy to provoke the security forces to resort to firing. Both New Delhi and Srinagar will have to be watchful against any new moves of the ISI for taking matching action to defeat their strategy.

If Pakistan thinks it can usurp Kashmir by any means, it is living in a make-believe world. Its any adventurous step like the one in Kargil could even lead to armed confrontation between the two countries and the trouble-torn Pakistan can then even risk its survival. (IPA Service)