While the LDF leadership is confident of putting up a good show, one thing can be said with certainty: it will be difficult for the Front to repeat the good show of the 2005 local body polls. .

There are many reasons why the LDF would find it difficult to repeat the 2005 performance in this elections. Some of the factors which helped the LDF to inflict a crushing defeat on the UDF in 2005 are no longer there.

For instance, in 2005, the split in the Congress had considerably weakened the UDF. The Karunakaran faction had broken away from the parent body and formed the Democratic Indira Congress (DIC). In a huff, the DIC had extended full support to the LDF in 2005.The LDF no more enjoys that advantage with the Karunakaran faction back in the Congress this time round.

Moreover, two of the parties which were with the LDF last time, have crossed over to the UDF side. These are: the Indian National League (INL) and the Socialist Janata (Democrtic), the Veerendra Kumar-led JD faction which broke away from the JD.

Although the LDF leadership says that the exit of INL and Socialist Janata (Democratic) won't make any difference, the fact is that the exit of the latter could affect the LDF's prospects in Kozhikode and Wayanad distrircts.

Similarly, the exit of INL from the LDF camp may mar the LDF's chances in Malappuram and Kasargode districts.

A section of the LDF leadership admits that it was a mistake to allow both the INL and Socialist Janata(Democratic) to leave the LDF camp. They are of the view that efforts should have been made to persuade them to stay back with the LDF.

The general perception is that this time round, the LDF would not enjoy the kind of support the minorities had extended to it in the 2005 elections. For one thing, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which was with the LDF, is now strongly opposed to it. Nor can the LDF take for granted the backing of the Abdul Nasser Madani-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) in this election. If the INL had been persuaded to stay with the LDF, that would have helped the LDF to retain a part of its Muslim vote bank.

Also, the Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction, another LDF constituent, has merged itself in Kerala Congress (Mani) and is in the UDF camp now. That would deprive the LDF of a chunk of Kerala Congress votes as well. .

But the LDF leadership is not unduly worried about these setbacks. In fact, the LDF leaders think they can turn these setbacks to account this time. With the exit of the 'communal' INL and KC (J), the LDF has acquired a more secular look and that would attract more secular votes this time. That is the calculation of the LDF.

The LDF has managed to have an unexpected windfall this time. That is because of the political blunder committed by Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi, who appeared in the Kerala High Court for lottery king, Santiago Martin, against whom the Congress had launched a solid campaign. The party has accused the CPI(M) of being in league with the lottery mafia. By appearing forr the lottery king, Singhvi negated the big advantage Congress had managed to have over the LDF.

The LDF is also striving hard to cash in on the good performance of the Achuthanandan-led LDF Government. (IPA)