The Akali crisis raises two questions. What are the options now available to Manpreet? How will the Akali-BJP leadership deal with the acute financial crisis, the basic reason behind Manpreet's ouster from the ministry, which was, however, camouflaged by the charge of his allegedly violating party discipline?

At present Manpreet stands isolated in Akali Dal but not among the people of his constituency. Sukhbir's proven organizational muscle and use of official machinery failed to stop people from massively responding to Manpreet's maiden public rally in his constituency held on October 16. But political and official influence to cut down his support whatever he has among the Akali legislators can lead to his further isolation in the party. Sukhbir has already started using all available means which may also include offers of ministerial berths and Boards and Corporations Chairmanships to win over Manpreet's supporters.

At his October 16 rally, Manpreet declared that he would not quit the party. But the ruling camp would perhaps not like to allow his stay in the party as this would provide him opportunities to cultivate those who are likely to get disgruntled over the period, particularly during the run-up to the Assembly elections due in early 2012. Mobilising MLAs support by Manpreet is not likely to bear immediate fruits for two reasons. Manpreet is an idealist opposed to using unfair means for achieving ends. This quality normally does not yield results in this era of realpolitik. Secondly, no Akali leader can dare to annoy Parkash Singh Badal during his lifetime as he is the party's main vote catcher.

So, Manpreet Singh's future in Akali Dal is virtually sealed.

Without having a party platform, a politician is like a fish without water. Manpreet's options to join another party seem limited. An influential section of the state Congress has already opposed his admission into the party. Akali Dal led by the Tamil Nadu Governor and former Chief Minister Surjit Singh Barnala's family has invited him to join them. At the moment, there is no possibility of the party emerging as a challenger to the Sukhbir Singh-headed Akali Dal.

Manpreet's other option is to float a new political party. A decision on this can only be possible after judging the peoples mood during his state-wide mass contact tour he has declared to undertake. If he finds the situation conducive for channelising the peoples growing disenchantment with the Akali-BJP government he may float a new political outfit.

Economy is usually the driving force behind politics. It is Punjab's deteriorating financial crisis which triggered the Akali Dal's crisis. That the crisis has become acute is indicated by the state's bloated debt burden of Rs.71,000 which is likely to further mount to over Rs.78,000 crore in 2011-2012.

On the top of Manpreet's list of remedial measures to pull the state out of its financial morass has been scrapping of subsidies particularly of free power to the farm sector costing the exchequer over Rs.3,100 crore annually. He took up his agenda in the party forums, the cabinet and the Assembly. But the ruling Akali leadership stoutly opposed the scrapping the provision of free power. The suggestion that only the small and marginal farmers should be supplied free power is not favoured by the rich farmers and vested landed interests who dominate both the Akali Dal and the state Congress.

The former Finance Minister's suggestions to mobilize resources from urban areas were resisted by the BJP and those which affected the rural population were not acceptable to the Akali Dal. So, when he made the earth-shaking announcement that the Centre was ready to waive off half of Punjab's Rs.71,000 crore debt provided Punjab acted on the pre-conditions mandated by the Centre -the assurance about debt waiver also given by Pranab Mukherji during Manpreet's meeting with him- every body thumped the desks in the Assembly. When the implications of the pre-conditions later dawned on the ruling leadership, it changed its stance saying there had been no written offer of the debt waiver from the Centre. Sukhbir even said “We want that the Centre must write off the entire debt without any pre-conditions”. Those talking about the Centre's written offer forget that such offers come only after the state accepts the preconditions. In fact, indications about the loan waiver move and pre-conditions were provided to the state government's senior officers during the meetings of the central Committee set up for providing relief to the debt-stressed states including Punjab, Kerala and West Bengal. What has been fate of the note prepared by the state Chief Secretary on the issue is not known.

Now that the crusader Finance Minister is out of the ministry, the government faces the difficult task of pulling Punjab out of its huge debt. There are five ways to achieve the objective. (1) Scrap or drastically cut subsides. (2) Mobilise resources through new taxes. (3) Cut non-Plan expenditure and downsize the top heavy bureaucracy. (4) Curtail unproductive expenditure including stopping of politicians appointments to Boards and Corporations (5) Go to the Centre with a bagging bowl.

As none of first four conditions fits in Punjab's present populist policies, the only remedy left will be to go to the Centre with a begging bowl. Then what will happen to the rulers much touted claims of upholding Punjab's dignity and honour?

One prays Punjab is not reduced to the state of those small and marginal farmers whose debt burdens are forcing them to commit suicides. (IPA Service)