One is the fear of the minorities that in the process of preparing the second National Register of Citizens (NRC), a large number of them may be declared “foreigners” and stripped of their voting right. The first NRC was prepared in 1951, to identify the “foreigners” or the Muslims who had illegally migrated to Assam from the then East Pakistan. The demand for a second NRC was being voiced for several years. The Assamese Hindus have been the vocal supporters of a new NRC while the Bengali immigrant Muslims are understandably agitated and apprehensive.

This August, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi set up a Cabinet Committee to examine the difficulties being faced in “updating” the NRC. Earlier, the Centre had decided to make the 1966 voters' list as the cut off year for “updating”. i.e., for identifying the “foreigners.” The minority organizations say this is violative of the terms of the Assam Accord of 1985.

The Accord stipulated that those who entered Assam from East Pakistan between 1966 and 1971 would be detected and their names struck off the electoral rolls for ten years, after which they will get back their voting right. In other words, it will mean temporary disenfranchisement for a decade. Now, if 1966 is the cut-off year, then those who came between 1966 and 1971, what will happen to those who came during this period? Minority organizations went on a deputation to the Prime Minister, the Home Minister and the UPA Chairman. The Centre relented and agreed that the 1951 NRC and the voters' lists of 1966 and 1971 would be accepted as valid documents for the purpose of updating the NRC.

However, this has not allayed the fears of the minorities. H. R. A. Choudhury, Working President of the All India United Democratic Front (AIDUF) says none of the three documents is available and the voters' lists for 1966 and 1971 in the Muslim areas have mostly been “destroyed”. Barpeta, a Muslim dominated district, recently saw communal tensions rise over the preparation of the NRC. The BJP also got involved. But sanity prevailed on both sides and the situation was not allowed to turn ugly. Work on NRC has remained suspended since then.

Then there is the fate of some 1,80,000 Bengali Hindu and Muslim voters whose names the Election Commission has put in “D” or doubtful category. Till their fate is decided, they will not be able to exercise their franchise. The minorities have all along been the biggest vote bank of the Congress. If a section of them turns against the party, it will be bad for the Congress.

The second issue very much in the public domain relates to the construction of mega hydro-power projects in Arunachal Pradesh, especially the 1800 MW Lower Subansiri Project which is expected to be commissioned in January, 2012. Then there is the 1750 MW Demwe Lower Project. In all, Arunachal has signed MoUs for 132 hydro-power projects with different agencies and 50 of them have already been given first stage environment clearance.

The student communities of both Assam and Arunachal are up against the mega dams. In Assam, the anti-dam movement is being spearheaded by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samity (KMSS) which has threatened to start a mass movement from November 1, along with the people of Arunachal. The Asom Gana Parishad and the All Assam Students' Union (AASU) have also thrown their weight behind the movement. The dams, they fear, will aggravate the flood problem and cause ecological damages. The MKSS has alleged that Chief Minister Gogoi has allowed himself to be influenced by the dam-builders' lobby. It has also warned it may resort to economic blockade of Arunachal Pradesh.

Arunachal Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu is determined to go ahead with all the hydro-projects. Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's position seems to be ambivalent. He says he is not against mega dams if these “do not go against the interests of the State.” Then he qualifies his statement by saying: “We need to go for remedial measures for any negative impact” of the dams in Assam.

The third issue is the about-to-begin-but-never-begun peace talks with ULFA. The top ULFA leaders are in Guwahati jail. A few are out on bail. For the past few months, a top intelligence officer, P. C. Haldar, who has been appointed “chief interlocutor” by the Centre, has been intermittently meeting the jailed leaders for deciding on the “modalities” of the talks. It is only after the modalities have been agreed upon that the actual talks will begin. Nobody knows with whom or at what level.

Yet another issue is the demand of the Bodos for a Bodoland State. In fact, when in 2003 the Bodo Autonomous Council was upgraded to Bodoland Territorial Council with added areas and more powers, the Bodos rejoiced, saying “The next step is Bodoland”. Recently, the All Bodo Students' Union has revived its demand for a separate State. The problem for the Congress is that in a House of 126, it has only 55 MLAs. It could form the government only by aligning with the Bodo People's Front which has 12 MLAs. In the fluid political situation prevailing now, the Congress dare not alienate the Bodos on the eve of the polls.

The Congress' relationship with the linguistic minorities (the immigrant Muslims) and the ethnic minorities (the Bodos) will be a key factor in the polls next year. There is yet another group of minorities - the tea garden workers. Their conditions remain miserable. Laws relating to their wages and other facilities are wantonly violated. The nexus of the bureaucracy, the ruling party and its trade union wing, the INTUC, with the garden managements is quite well known. The tea population is getting disenchanted with the Congress. (IPA Service)