Obama has much to cheer at the development because, in recent years, Moscow and Washington were not on the same wavelength on many issues including Russia's conflict with Georgia, NATO expansion in Eastern Europe and the US project for a missile defense shield. Although Moscow refused to send troops to Afghanistan, the Medvedev regime is keen to have closer relations with the US. Obama too was reciprocal.

The meeting ground was easy as Obama had declared that defeating Al Qaeda and Taliban were his top foreign policy objectives. The Russians had also shown considerable sympathy for the US efforts on Afghanistan because of the illicit flow of opium and other drugs which are coming to the Russian territory.

The fact that Obama took it up with Medvedev shows the concern the US President has on the issue. One of the first things he did after assuming office was to order a thorough review of the US Afghan policy. He also appointed Richard Holbrook as the special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Holbrook, who has made several trips to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, has kept his ears to the ground.

What is Obama's Afghanistan strategy? It involves increased U.S. military power with expanding political and development efforts. It also envisages sending more American troops in the short-term not only to relieve the beleaguered American soldiers posted in Afghanistan but also to flush out the militants in areas where they had been operating freely. The U.S. military admits that the war in Afghanistan has not been going very well. Obama too was frank after the summit that the results were not up to his expectations but it was too soon to judge. The point is that just increasing military forces on the Afghan side may not be of much help unless supported by an effective response from Pakistan. Some think that negotiations for a future Afghan political process should involve moderate Taliban elements. The ground realities so far show that Taliban elements would negotiate from a position of strength as they did in Swat. The problem for the US is that the Pakistan civilian government is weak. The authorities are unable to deal with the regrouped Taliban elements hiding in the tribal belt. Despite US pressure, the government headed by Zardari is unable to deliver. On the contrary, as a revenge for the Swat losses, Pakistani Taliban has extended its attacks to other cities like Peshawar, Lahore, Islamabad and other places. If Obama hoped to generate any goodwill by the generous aid to Pakistan, it is being wiped out by the increase in Pakistani deaths by American rockets.

In this scenario, where does India stand? Washington feels that removing Indo-Pak tensions is an essential part of its Afghan strategy. The US wants Islamabad to move troops from its Eastern border (Kashmir) to its Western border to deal with the militants but Pakistan argues that it would be difficult in view of the decades -long tensions between India and Pakistan. As an answer to this, Washington wants India and Pakistan to resume dialogue which was discontinued after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. New Delhi insists on Islamabad punishing the perpetrators of the attack. Obama is not obliging Pakistan which wants the Kashmir issue to be resolved through mediation. In an interview to Dawn, he made it clear that there would be no US mediation and the two countries would have to resolve it bilaterally which is music to New Delhi's ears.

The other worry for Pakistan was the role of India in the region. India is a friend of Afghanistan and one of President Karzai's few champions. New Delhi has a lot of influence in Kabul. India has four consulates in Afghanistan and given it liberal aid of $1.2 billion. India also plays a big role in reconstruction and rebuilding of that country.

The June meeting of India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Zardari was the beginning of a diplomatic dialogue which may be taken forward with the promptings of the US. Several high level US officials had already visited India and Pakistan and all eyes are on the forthcoming visit of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton later this month. The culmination of these efforts could be a visit by Obama to the region later.

With problems surmounting from all sides, Obama administration is keeping a close tab on things. As a change of tactics, it has decided to hold up its troop levels flat for the time being and instead focus on increased economic development, improved governance and enabling the Afghans to defend themselves as revealed by the US National Security Adviser. Obama also spoke at the end of the summit about the need for a security system for the Afghans and completion of their election.

The next few months will show how Obama's AfPak strategy works. Unless all the stake-holders cooperate, the Afghan issue cannot be resolved. Even after the elections in August, political stability may elude the Afghans. (IPA Service)