Their recent utterances make it clear that for most TMC leaders, there may well be two major adversaries in 2011 - the CPI(M)-led ruling Left Front as well as the Congress(I), which leads the UPA coalition where the TMC is a partner.

At present, it is open to question whether there can be a seat adjustment or alliance between the TMC and the Congress (I). The answer, according to analysts, depends on two closely related factors in the state context: Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s political priorities in 2011 and the limits of Ms Mamata Banerjee’s brinkmanship. The first of these may be more variable than the second.

Senior state Congress (I) leaders point to the new assertiveness that defines the present functioning of their high command. The Congress (I) emerged as the largest national party in 2009 while the BJP still remains in disarray. The Congress (I) enjoys a comfortable majority in parliament. Unlike her illustrious predecessor Indira Gandhi, who was content to work out local adjustments with state-based regional parties to maintain her rule at the Centre, Mrs Sonia Gandhi prefers to revive it, make it stronger.

She prefers working hard even in states to regain the Congress (I)”s lost political space, rather than giving a free hand to regional forces in the states in exchange for their support in Delhi.

It is not as though this policy is not paying dividends. In the biggest state, Uttar Pradesh, the Congress (I) performed quite creditably in the last Lok Sabha polls, confounding doomsayers. This occurred at the expense of parties like the BSP, the SP and the BJP. True, in Bihar the party came a cropper, but that owed more to rampant nepotism and corruption in the nomination of candidates than anything else.

Given the party’s existing strength in West Bengal, there is no reason to pre-suppose that there will be a repeat of the Bihar experience instead of what happened in Uttar Pradesh. Prior to the formation of the TMC in Jan 1998, the Congress (I) usually won between 35/40 per cent of the total votes polled in most elections, the highest among states where it had lost power. This has dropped to around 15% or less as the TMC gained at its expense.

Even so, the power and clout of the Congress (I) in North and central Bengal districts, stretching northwards from Murshidabad/Malda onwards, remains considerable.

Even 10/15% of votes won by the Congress (I) means a considerable share of anti-Left votes. Although the TMC won 19 out 42 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 in Bengal as against 15 won by the ruling front (CPI-M winning 9) , in terms of aggregate votes polled, the difference was very narrow : 1.96 crore votes for the TMC/others as against 1.85 crore for the Left .

As the CPI(M)”s astute Housing Minister Gautam Deb says, “This is a difference of only 11,00,000 votes. Considering there are around 66,000-odd polling booths, we need to win back only 10 more votes per booth in 2011 to tilt the balance in our favour.” It is such reasoning that sustains the pre-poll Left assertiveness and explains its aggressive campaigning. This is a total contrast from what was happening during and after the twin setback of Singur and Nandigram developments. .

It appears that their unexpected success in the matter of winning LS seats has made the TMC leaders somewhat cocky and forgetful of even elementary facts. The total votes won in the LS polls by non-left parties included those polled by the Congress (I), too. The BJP still accounts for 3 or 4 per cent of the aggregate votes. Clearly, unless non Left parties keep their votes in a bloc, the Left will win on the basis of vote splitting.

Even in 2009, the BJP spoiled the TMC show in allowing the LF to win at least 4 seats owing to such splitting.

This goes to show that the Congress (I) and the TMC need to work out a seat adjustment or an alliance, to defeat the LF in the state as a whole. The TMC may not need the Congress (I)’s support very much in south Bengal districts, where it is stronger than before. But for North and south-West Bengal districts, it cannot think of going it alone.

There is a general impression that neither Mrs Gandhi nor Ms Banerjee is sincere about an anti-Left alliance. Ms Banerjee wants to hog the whole credit of defeating the CPI(M) for herself — in fact, she believes and behaves as if she has already won the Assembly polls! She wants the Congress (I) to be totally subservient to her or die. For natural reasons, the state Congress (I) is determined not to oblige her.

Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has warned the TMC not to think of quitting the UPA and going it alone, a la Mr. Prakash Karat of the CPI(M). It is the Congress (I) that will rule the centre in future, not the TMC. And Ms Banerjee has returned the compliment by announcing that she would not mind Mr. Mukherjee becoming the next chief Minister of West Bengal. But these sugary exchanges at the top level, for most people, are no more than sweet nothings. And with vote statistics showing such little difference between the ruling LF and its adversaries, to write off the LF already, as TMC leaders are doing now, would be living in a fool’s paradise. (IPA Service)