The meeting between ULFA leaders and the government began in cordial atmosphere in the capital but the resolution of Assam insurgency is still a question mark. Tough and sensitive negotiations are ahead and neither side is in a hurry. The doubts arise because there is a division in ULFA. While there is a pro-talks group, its Commander in chief Paresh Barua, who is said to be hiding in Burma has rejected the talks and the others are waiting for him to come round. The decision to hold peace talks was taken at ULFA's executive committee and general council meetings some time ago. It has been conveyed to Paresh Barua.

ULFA has been waging insurgency for the last 30 odd years and many of its top leaders, including its Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, recently gave themselves up to Indian authorities. This was made possible with the full cooperation of the Bangladesh authorities, which had made it difficult for the ULFA leaders to hide and operate from their country.

While the ULFA is still a banned group and its members outlawed why are they ready for talks with the centre? From both sides it is quite clear that nothing concrete can be expected before the April-May Assam Assembly elections. The ULFA has declared that it will not participate in the elections. The ULFA cadres will stay in designated camps in Assam like NSCN-IM in neighboring Nagaland. It is also expected that the ULFA may declare a ceasefire before the next round of talks and the centre may lift the ban on the organization in return.

There is hope on both sides because the centre and the state government have done much of the preparatory work before the top ULFA leaders landed in Delhi. The Congress-led Centre is keen to bring the ULFA for peace talks so that it can show the peace card during the Assembly poll campaign.

The outlawed leaders have agreed for the talks because they realize that their movement was getting weakened and time was running out. Those in hiding were feeling hunted and getting older. Bangladesh's current regime has been a big help for the government's efforts to neutralize ULFA. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena reversed her predecessor’s policy of providing safe havens to the insurgents from northeast forcing the ULFA to accept New Delhi’s offer for talks. Above all, the atmosphere seems to be conducive for such talks. This was perhaps the main reason for ULFA coming for negotiations without any conditions.

The first round of Delhi talks had gone off as expected. Prime Minister and Home Minister had a cordial round of meetings with the ULFA leaders, which raised hope. The fact that the PM met them shows that there is enough confidence on the interlocutors to bring round a breakthrough.

Stakes are high for the Congress as it is keen to win the state for the third time in a row. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has been helpful in nudging the ULFA to the negotiating table. The centre is keen that ULFA should participate in the elections but the ULFA is still not ready. The strategists hope that if ULFA comes into the mainstream it will be a feather in the cap for the Congress to play its peace card.

The most important thing is to conduct peaceful Assembly polls and if the ULFA abstains from violence that itself will be a big step in the peace talks.

The roadmap ahead has been chalked out. The joint secretary in the Home Ministry has been designated to hold talks with the ULFA leaders, which will discuss the designated camps, surrender policy, deposit of arms and other issues for maintaining peace in the state. These are ticklish issues and need careful handling.

Assam has seen much poll violence in the past two decades. Insurgent groups like ULFA and NDFB had given boycott calls in earlier elections. ULFA had first helped the AGP in 1985 polls but soon they fell out as the then AGP Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mohanta began to contain ULFA. In 1991, ULFA supported Congress leader Hiteswar Saikia to come to power. The ULFA not only wanted to remove AGP from power but also save the ULFA leadership from the army. There were rumors that there was some secret understanding between Saikia and the ULFA leadership, but soon they fell out and the relationship got strained. The ULFA again wanted to help AGP in 1996 polls but this understanding was short-lived as Mohanta wanted to wipe them out. So during the 2001 polls, ULFA targeted the BJP and AGP. The 2006 polls did not have much terrorist sponsored violence during polls. The pro-talk group is unlikely to interfere if government launches operations against those members indulging in violence.

Promising noises are being made from the North Block and 7, Race Course Road of finding a just and honorable solution to end the insurgency problem in Assam. Whether Congress comes back to power in Assam or not, the centre should go ahead with its peace talks as ending insurgency in the violence torn state is important which ever government rules the state. The negotiating team should keep in mind the people of Assam rather than any narrow short-term gains. Only then peace will return. (IPA Service)