The deal in New Delhi between the Congress and DMK on the number of seats for the Congress in the DMK-led alliance, after days of hard bargaining and threats of Mr Karunanidhi to pull out six DMK Ministers from the Centre, may not necessarily prove to be the “winning combination” as proudly claimed by both parties after reconciliation. The rival alliance, led by Ms. Jayalalithaa’s AIDMK, looks more confident of “throwing out the Karunanidhi’s family regime”, which further earned notoriety by the Raja episode.

The Tamil Nadu election taking place in an extraordinary situation could be a trial of strength for both DMK faced with the spectrum scandal as well as the Congress at the head of UPA Government, whose own credibility has suffered considerable damage over a host of issues, mainly prices, corruption and poor governance. Both parties have still to agree on the constituencies and Congress will insist on its own preferences, even if the central leadership has deferred power-sharing issue till after the elections.

Unlike the DMK, Ms. Jayalalithaa has been slow in firming up her alliance partners but she has scored with the entry of cine-star Captain Vijaykanth’s DMDK, which has a solid base and voting record, giving this party 41 seats while her other allies include Mr Vaiko’s MDMK and CPI(M) and CPI which together may share 50 to 60 seats. Ms. Jayalalithaa hopes to secure an absolute majority for AIDMK and has not given any hint of sharing power with her allies at this stage.

Although only ten days are left for the nominations to begin for the April 13 poll, Ms. Jayalalithaa had kept a watch over the ongoing tussle over seats between Mr Karunanidhi and the Congress which, if unresolved, could have opened up new opportunities for political realignment in Tamil Nadu. Mr Karunanidhi’s first offer of 51 seats for the Congress once he had allotted 31 seats for PMK (of Dr. Ramadoss) and 10 seats for VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) of Mr Thirumavalavan, showed his disdain for any assertive role for the Congress in state politics.

Mr Karunanidhi summoned his party leaders to decide on the “unreasonable” demand of the Congress for 63 seats and took the decision to withdraw from the UPA Government while giving issue-based support in future. In case the Congress did not accept his offer of 60 seats, he said he would have many other state-level parties with a following to beef up the DMK-led alliance. He had already allotted seven seats to one of the smaller parties with a following in the western districts (KMK) and was willing to offer them a few more seats on the basis of its voting record in the assembly segments in the last Lok Sabha election.

The Congress-DMK seat-sharing talks began initially in Chennai with the Congress negotiating team led by Mr P Chidambaram, Home Minister, proposing 90 seats and power-sharing in the next DMK Government. Mr Karunanidhi’s team turned down both demands and in subsequent rounds with Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, in charge of Congress affairs in Tamil Nadu, raised the offer to 53 and later to 60. The Congress pitched its demand at 63 seats to the consternation of Mr Karunanidhi, who said the Congress was “unreasonable” in raising it to 63 after having agreed for 60. He set a deadline for the Congress to agree to 60 failing which the party ministers would submit their resignations to the Prime Minister.

The Congress kept Mr Karunanidhi in suspense for 48 hours suggesting more time was needed for consultations. By then all six DMK Ministers were already in Delhi having landed with a look of triumph to become heroes in tendering resignations. When two of them, Mr M K Alagiri and Mr Dayanidhi Maran called on Ms. Sonia Gandhi, there was a dramatic twist with the Congress President indicating she was unperturbed by the DMK threat of withdrawal from Government. She would not let the prestige of the Congress to suffer.

The Ministers conveyed the mood of the Congress to Mr Karunanidhi and its continued insistence on 63 seats. After further consultations and the willingness of two parties PMK and Indian Union Muslim League to surrender one seat each and DMK the third, the deal was clinched. Mr Azad announced the agreement on 63 seats and said with this “unanimous” decision, “we will work together and will be able to form the government in Tamil Nadu again”. The Congress had been extending support to the Karunanidhi Government, which lacked a majority of its own, after the 2006 elections.

In the final round in New Delhi, the Congress side represented by Mr Pranab Mukherjee, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad and Mr Ahmad Patel, political secretary of the Congress President, and the DMK team by the two Ministers agreed that they would mutually identify the seats the Congress would contest. It was also agreed that any formal announcement on power sharing could be left to be made after the poll. In Chennai, the DMK leader Mr Karunanidhi, realizing the critical stage of the alliance, told his partymen, “It is a good day for us. Finally we have reached an agreement with the Congress”.

This is the first time that the Congress took a tough stand vis-a-vis DMK, which had to climb down from its defiant stance, realizing that the threat did not have its intended effect. For the Congress which won 36 out of 48 seats it contested in the 2006 elections, it was apparent that DMK could not go it alone. This was also reflected in the trip that Mr Karunanidhi had earlier made to Delhi to see Ms. Sonia Gandhi and secure her assurance that the alliance would remain intact for the Assembly poll 2011.

As now agreed, DMK will contest 121 seats, Congress 63, PMK 30, VCK 10, KMK 7, I U Muslim League 2 and MMK 1. Total 234. In the 2006 elections, the alliance had secured 165 seats while the AIDMK-led alliance took the remaining 69 seats. The Chief Election Commission has made special arrangements for close monitoring of elections in Tamil Nadu, following repeated allegations of the use of money power by the ruling party which had won all by-elections over the last five years. The first thing the State Chief Electoral Officer ordered was to stop the free distribution of colour TV sets till the end of the election process. The tax authorities have been alerted by the Election Commission for surveillance of big functions and monitoring of political activities in all districts to curtail money power in the Tamil Nadu elections. Arrangements have been made for filing of complaints which would be investigated where excessive cash flow is alleged. (IPA Service)