Although the understanding between the two was to continue their alliance until the West Bengal Assembly elections in 2011, differences have already crept in. If the two parties have the common objective of throwing out the left front government in the next Assembly polls, they both have to remain together. While the Congress needs the support of 'Didi' at the Centre, Mamata also needs the Congress to achieve her one-point programme of becoming the chief minister. The Congress has already achieved its objective of marginalizing the left parties. It will be a sweet revenge for the Congress if the left front is thrown out after the Assembly polls.

For Mamata, although she has become the Railway minister, her goal is yet to be achieved. That is why she spends more time in Kolkata to organize her party to face the huge task. Presently she is in an advantageous position. First of all, things are going Mamata's way as her party is gaining ground. Her popularity graph is going up. Secondly, the anti-incumbency factor for the Buddhadeb Bhattacharya government may hurt the left front as the people of the state are getting fed up with the left front regime. Thirdly, she is in a position to dole out favours by way of giving new trains, concessions and even jobs as the Railway minister. She wants to create a pro-poor image. Fourthly, Mamata would like to have a weak Congress leadership. The Congress does not have big state leaders and Pranab Mukherjee who is the tallest leader of the party is busy with so many other things. .

The relationship between the congress and the TMC began well four months ago. The seat sharing for the Lok Sabha polls between the two went off without much problem. The victory was very sweet for both. Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were quite relieved that Mamata did not demand too many cabinet berths and also did not bargain for hefty portfolios while the DMK did despite getting 19 seats.

The first signs of strain came when 'Didi' wanted to be consulted on things pertaining to West Bengal and made her displeasure known when the government did not do so. Pranab Mukherjee was deputed promptly to assuage her feelings.

As for the trust between the two parties, Mamata believes that the Congress still has a soft corner for the Buddhadeb Bhattacharya government. In the past four months, the two parties have taken different stands on various issues. In the post-Aila devastation, Mamata insisted on bypassing the chief minister to send the relief as her party controlled the panchayats. She was upset when the Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced Rs 1000 crore relief to the state government. Soon after came the Lalgarh issue. The Congress and the Trinamool differed openly and Mamata was against the central forces being sent to Lalgarh without consulting her. Then, when the Congress called for a bandh to protest against the attack on its MLA, TMC cadres stayed away. Mamata opposed the Centre's move to bring the Land acquisition (amendment) bill to Parliament. To avoid confrontation with the TMC which has the biggest chunk in the Lok Sabha among the UPA allies, the government has now shelved the bill.

The latest to add to the rift is the issue of fielding candidates for the by-election. During the negotiations before the nomination, the Congress, till the last minute, was hoping that Mamata may concede at least one seat for the party. But Mamata walked away with both seats after a meeting with Sonia Gandhi recently leaving the local Congress leaders quite miffed about it. All are watching what would happen to the 11 seats where by-elections are due later.

Mamata began her stint as the Railway Minister in 2009 on a promising note as a “reasonable ally.” The optimists in both parties are quite confident that the alliance may survive until the next Assembly elections. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi are said to be keen on the alliance. The Congress is willing to announce her as their joint candidate for the next chief minister. However, two years is a long time in politics. In future, there is bound to be hard bargaining between the Congress and the TMC but Mamata will have the upper hand in view of her higher vote share in the Lok Sabha polls. While the TMC had 35 per cent vote share, the Congress had only 13 per cent. However, the Congress contested very few seats.

Mamata and Sonia Gandhi may have the difficult task of keeping the alliance going. Sonia Gandhi has given enough indications that she will give her a long rope and be as soft as she can. The only problem is the Congress does not know how long the rope is going to be. Mamata too will try to be as patient as possible unless she finds a political issue to her advantage. (IPA Service)