It is record breaking on many counts. First of all the left parties would lose their hold after 34 years of continuous rule. Although there are reports that the left parties have recovered in the past few months, the expectation is that the people may vote out the Left government as they are in a mood for change.

Secondly, by virtue of a minor partner, the Congress may come back as a part of ruling combination in the state after a gap of 34 years. Thirdly, the political realignment may take place both before and after the polls.

With the seat sharing exercise yet to be completed, it is clear that the two alliance partners – TMC and the Congress – have their own game plans. While the TMC chief Mamata Banerjee would like to deal with a weak Congress, the Congress too would like to ensure that Mamata does not become too big for her boots.

For instance, Mamata would like to come to power on her own majority although she may oblige the Congress by sharing power with it. For this reason she would not give the Congress as many seats as the ambitious Congress would like to have. Secondly, she would like to get the support of the smaller parties like the Adivasi Mukhti Morcha, Kamta Party and Gorkha Mukhti Morcha even after the elections so that she has less dependence on the Congress. She has managed her arithmetic well while the left parties allege that she has obtained the secret support of the dreaded Maoists. Whether it is true or not, if the Maoists behave, the elections would go smoothly. Even after power sharing, her efforts would be to see that the Congress does not become too independent and may like to give less important portfolios depending on the number of seats the Congress wins.

The Congress has a different game plan. Although the party is in an alliance with the TMC, in its heart of hearts, the Congress would not like to deal with a strong ally. It is the same case with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Congress would insist for power sharing in Tamil Nadu also if the DMK led alliance wins the polls. One of the recent stand off between the two parties was because of this sticky point of power sharing as the Congress wanted to make sure that it would be part of the government while the DMK would like to deal with the issue after the elections. If that happens, the Congress would be in power in both the states after many decades. In Tamil Nadu it has not been in power since it lost it to the DMK in 1967 and since then it has been languishing outside. In West Bengal, there has been no Congress chief minister after Siddhartha Shankar Ray government was sacked in 1977.

The TMC-Congress alliance may not be a smooth affair as the leaders of the two parties have their own ego. While the Congress has left it to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Ahmad Patel to deal with the seat sharing exercise, Mukherjee has a lot of clout as far as Bengal is concerned. He would not like any interference from any quarters as he considers it as his fiefdom.

Interestingly, even the AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi may not have much say in the five Assembly elections as the Congress leadership does not want him to expose him after the humiliating defeat in Bihar elections last year. He would have a say but not beyond a point and he would also get tickets for youth. It is common knowledge that Rahul Gandhi would like the Congress to go it alone in all the states, as he believes that then only the Congress could be built up. There is a large section in the Congress, which agrees with this view as a long-term strategy. Congressmen remember how he said in his Kolkata press conference last year that the Congress would opt for alliance keeping its honour.

While the TMC may not like to part with as many seats as the Congress would demand, political compulsions would make it necessary for both to compromise as both need each other. It is the same case with the DMK and the Congress also as the arithmetic would go against if they were not together.

The TMC-Congress is upbeat because of the division of the opposition votes and also because of the atmosphere in the state where there is disenchantment with the Left. (IPA Service)