Though it will take a few more days for the final decision to come, there are indications that VS may be denied ticket this time as there is strong opposition to his style of functioning within the party.

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat himself gave the game away by leaving the decision on Achuthanandan’s candidature to the State committee of the Kerala unit of the CPI(M) though he announced on the same day that Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will lead the party in the West Bengal assembly elections.

Political observers are of the view that by refusing to take a decision on VS’s candidature, the central leadership has unwittingly paved the way for sectarianism to run riot in the Kerala unit of the party.

What is even more significant is the State committee’s decision to allow the district committees to take the final decision on whether VS should contest or not. It is not difficult to guess the outcome of such an unprecedented decision as the district committees are packed with the loyalists of State CPI(M) secretary Pinarayi Vijayan. Already the Palakkad and Alappuzha (VS’s home district) have omitted VS’s name from the list of candidates. The only district which has offered a seat to Mr Achuthanandan is the Kasargod district committee. Surprisingly, even those loyal to the official wing of the Kerala CPI(M) in the district felt that VS should contest and the uncertainty over the issue should be ended immediately.

As the majority of the district committees are unlikely to recommend VS’s name, the ball will be back in the court of the State Committee, which is also dominated by Pinarayi loyalists. In other words, if VS finally succeeds in getting the ticket, it will be totally because of the ‘mercy’ of the state committee.

If the Kerala CPI(M) decides to deny VS the ticket, it could prove a costly mistake – a mistake which the party made in 2006. But the central leadership intervened then and ensured that the party fielded VS. That the central leadership has not chosen to do that now speaks for itself.

Whether the official wing of the Kerala CPI(M) likes it or not, the fact is that the popularity of Achuthanandan has gone up thanks to the political developments over the last two months.

There is no denying that the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF) has been pushed to the backfoot because of a series of political setbacks it has suffered during this period.

First came the fresh revelations against Indian Union Muslim League(IUML) general secretary, Mr P K Kunhalikkutty in the infamous ice cream parlour sex scandal, which first erupted way back in 1997. The revelations made by Kunhalikkutty’s trusted aide-turned-foe, Mr Kauf, has clearly rattled the UDF, which was riding high on confidence till then. IUML is the second most important constituent of the UDF.

Then came the Supreme Court decision to sentence former minister and Kerala Congress(B) leader R Balakrishna Pillai – an ally of the Congress - to one year’s rigorous imprisonment in the Idamalayar corruption case. It was a case that VS pursued with single-minded focus for over two decades. Needless to say, the imprisonment of Pillai has boosted the image of VS as a crusader against corruption.

This being the ground reality, any decision to deny VS ticket would be tantamount to scoring a self goal especially at a time when the UDF has been shaken by the setbacks it has suffered recently.

The CPI(M) leaders opposed to VS argue that the party is more important than any individual and that the victory of the LDF would be decided by the policies pursued by its government. But they are forgetting one thing: that VS is the captain of the team and any move to remove the captain even before the game has begun will amount to committing political hara-kiri.

It is also a fact – however unpalatable that may be to VS’s detractors – that the chief minister has managed to take the wind out of the Congress propaganda in the lottery scandal by seeking a CBI investigation into the issue. Of course he did it unilaterally without consulting the party. But it has served a purpose – that of depriving the opposition of a potent weapon to beat the ruling LDF government with.

Again, VS has asked the Kerala Home Minister to have the charges made against his son, Arun Kumar, enquired into by the Lok Ayukta. That again has gone down well with the people and further enhanced VS’s image.

Be that as it may, right now the mood in the official wing of the CPI(M) is to keep VS out of the elections. The mistake they made in 2006 would have proved disastrous for the party but for the intervention of the central leadership. This time round, a repeat of the mistake would be a calamity for the Kerala CPI(M). Will wiser counsels prevail? (IPA)