Now that Jagan has taken a plunge what is going to be his fate? First of all, he is seen as a young man in a hurry. He is so much like his father Rajashekhar Reddy who has been a rebel all his life but he did not alienate the high command. He was only fighting the different chief ministers until he became one. In the case of Jagan, he has become a rebel taking on the high command staking his claim for his father’s place.

Is there a difference between Chiranjeevi and Jagan? There is a glaring difference as Chiranjeevi is a film actor turned politician and a crowd puller. While Jagan had been spending money to get crowds, it is not sure how long he can sustain it. Chiranjeevi could not project an alternative with the result he only became a spoiler and not even a kingmaker but Jagan is still untested and no one is sure how he will fare. Secondly, Chiranjeevi has not built up his party at the grassroots level while Jagan is trying to get workers and he may or may not succeed in building his nascent party. Thirdly and most importantly, there was no political vacuum when Chiranjeevi launched his outfit two years ago as the Congress and the Telugu Desam were strong but Jagan is making efforts to snatch some space from the Congress. Right now the Congress has lost the goodwill gained by the late Rajashekhar Reddy and with the Telengana fiasco, the party is in doldrums. There is a vacuum, which needs to be filled up.

There are doubts about the success of Jagan’s YSR Congress Party. First of all, apart from the name of the party and the tri color flag with the YSR’s picture in the middle, nothing more is known. Will he be able to attract state leaders to his party to boost its image? Jagan has been talking of YSR’s nine pet schemes like housing, pavala vaddi, old age pensions, Rs two a kg rice, health insurance, jalayagnam, free power, education and land distribution. However, he cannot take credit for all these programmes just because his father had implemented them as the Congress chief minister. After all, they were the programmes of the Congress. He must come up with some innovative schemes to attract voters and just repeating his father’s promises is not going to help.

Secondly, the Assembly elections are scheduled in 2014, two and a half years away. The million-dollar question is that will he be able to sustain the party and build it before that? If the Telengana agitation becomes more violent there is a chance of the state going for President’s Rule and in that event Jagan’s calculations may go awry.

Thirdly, although the Congress has mishandled the Andhra crisis, there is still time to rectify the mistakes if there is going to be President’s Rule. When the passions cool down, it has to find a charismatic leader as a counter to Jagan. This is where Chiranjeevi, who has joined the Congress, recently comes in. There is talk of projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate in the next elections. It is not as if the state does not have such leaders but only the Congress high command has to find the right man for the right job. So far, the two candidates – Rosaiah and Kiran Reddy – had been unable to handle the state as chief minister. The next choice should well be better.

Fourthly, Jagan’s future also depends upon the decision of the Congress about giving a separate Telengana state. So far the Congress has promised more and delivered little. If the centre yields to the pressure and goes for a separate Telengana Jagan could capitalize it in the Seema-Andhra region and may be successful in getting a fair share of votes. The Congress has been unable to control the two -dozen Congress MLAs who show up at Jagan’s meetings. The Congress also cannot blame Jagan for his dynastic politics, as it will reflect on the Gandhi family.

Above all Jagan is vulnerable as a businessman. Jagan’s wealth had increased enormously during the regime of his father. From a small time realtor; Jagan has grown into an industrialist with interests in power, mining, cement and media. His declared income had grown from Rs 8.19 lakhs in 2003 to Rs 77 crores in 2009. The Income tax cases are already slapped on him. So he is sitting in a glass house.

The trick for Jagan is to find a good team, grow in spite of the breaks put by the Congress and find alliance partners before elections so that his arithmetic gets better. Otherwise he will only end up as a spoiler and a benefactor for Telugu Desam as his party will only split the Congress votes and help TDP.

On the whole, it is too early to predict the future of the YSR Congress, as elections are a long way. In politics one week is long and two and a half years is really very long. (IPA Service)