Facts seem to corroborate such a conclusion. From 235 out of 294 in 2006, the Left Front has been reduced to 62 in 2011. The CPI(M)’s share has dropped from 176 to 41 during the same period. The TMC’s tally has risen from 30 to 184 during the same period, the Congress has won 42 seats, reducing the CPI(M) to third party status. The non-left alliance has won 227 seats in 2006. Broadly speaking the 2006 election stats have been reversed, with minor modifications. So far so good, but for observers, certain problems arise when one analyses vote percentages.

For instance, in 2006, the Left front won 50.4% of the aggregate votes, while the non left opposition won 49.6%. This meant that regardless of the enormous difference in the number of seats clinched, there was less than 1% votes separating the winners from the losers. Most of the left victories were by close margins. And in 211 out of 294 seats, the Trinamool came runner up to the CPI(M).

Interestingly, in 2011, too the combined votes polled by the TMC/Congress combine account for just over 48% of the aggregate. The Left Front (LF) won 41% and the CPI(M), 39%. This means , while the left share of votes declined sharply in five years, by around 9%, a huge swing in the context of a highly polarised electorate of West Bengal, there has been virtually no increase at all — rather a decrease, however slight, has occurred! — in the share of votes polled by the victorious TMC/Congress in terms of percentages.

Clearly, this is irreconcilable with claims made by a section of observers about Ms Banerjee winning by a “positive” mandate from the people. Rather, the reverse conclusion, suggesting that the left has been decisively and comprehensively rejected by the people, a process that gained momentum from 2008 panchayat elections, is nearer the mark.

Even as Ms Banerjee, the Congress and their hordes of supporters savour their finest hour after years of struggle, they should ponder the significance of such statistics. If anything, it should stiffen their resolve to work harder than ever and consolidate their unique achievement.

The question arises, where have most of the 9% new anti-left votes have gone, as neither the TMC nor the Congress have been able to attract them.

It is not easy to answer the question. In terms of numbers again, the Left front has won about 11,00,000 more votes than it did in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Incidentally this was the additional magic number that according to left Minister Gautam Deb would have been enough for the left to win the 2011 elections.

As pointed out in these columns before, Deb reasoned that the front needed to muster only 10 additional votes in each of the 51,000 booths to secure a win, (In 2009, the TMC-Congress alliance won only 1 million votes than the Front), in 2011.

Well, the LF has got these votes and still suffered a rout — because Mr, Deb and his followers did not have the slightest clue as to which way the new 35,00,000 enrolled voters would vote in 2011! It is clear that mostly they rejected the Left front en bloc, going by the final outcome.

It is being suggested by observers that presumably the 9% anti left votes were claimed in various chunks by the BJP, the “independents” put up by disaffected Congress and TMC supporters in 25/30 constituencies. This claim needs a more comprehensive examination than is possible here.

However, it seems there is a measure of truth in the cynical observation that the BJP and the CPI(M) help each other in subtle ways. Out of the 41 seats won by the CPI(M), left analysts have found that in 15, the share of votes cut by the BJP (which contested all 294 seats) led to a split in non left votes and helped the CPI(M) candidates to win in 2011. This leads to the disturbing conclusion that in 2011, on its own, the CPI(M) could have won only 25 seats in a state it has ruled for over three decades! No doubt, its allies too have been helped in the same way by the BJP.

Incidentally, in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP votes , dividing non left votes, had helped the LF to win 5 seats, which meant that on its own it would have won only 10, not 15 LS seats from the state.

All of this, it is common knowledge, leaves Ms Banerjee fuming against her erstwhile ally, the BJP. No wonder she did not respond to Mr. L.K. Advani’s congratulatory messages. (IPA Service)