No doubt UP is an important state accounting for 80 of the 542 seats in Lok Sabha. It is said UP is India and India is UP. Every Congressman knows that without getting a good number of seats in UP and Bihar, the Congress party cannot dream of ruling at the centre on its own.

Why did the Congress Party lose its primacy in the Northern belt? Could it be emergency, which was mainly responsible for the decline? Indira loyalists do not agree with this view and point out that there are several reasons. The primacy of the Congress in the sixties and seventies was because it was the only party, which had tall leaders and by virtue of its role in the freedom struggle won the appreciation of the people. Secondly it was the only party, which had spread all over the country. Caste based and communal based parties had not sprung up then.

The Congress ruled continuously at the Centre and in most Indian states, from the first general election in 1952 until the fourth general election in March 1967. Prior to 1967, the Congress had won 73 percent of the seats in Parliament. The party won every state election and until 1967 it never won less than 60 per cent of all elections for seats in the state legislative assemblies.

A clear analysis reveals that the Congress party's real decline can be traced to the late 1980s. This was when it lost its appeal to a vast section of the various classes, especially the religious minorities who felt it was compromising on pluralism. It lost power in UP and Bihar in 1989 after which it has not regained its lost glory for more than two decades. Each of the non-Congress parties, in these states, represents more focused interests than the Congress can seemingly retain.

Indira loyalists are upset that the experts have squarely blamed Indira Gandhi for the Congress decline in the Hindi belt and they attribute it to several other factors.

The first is that the appeal of the Congress is not the same as in sixties and seventies when the Congress ruled three fourth of the states and was considered as an umbrella party pandering to different shades of opinions. Over the years, the Congress was unable to meet the aspirations of the people with the result there were several splinter groups of the Congress and other caste based and religion based parties, which became alternative to the party. The Congress itself split into Congress (O), Congress (I), Congress (S), Nationalist Congress Party, Trinamool Congress, Kerala Congress and what not. Even today if all of them merge back, the party’s strength would be formidable. Leaders who floated these parties have now become strong regional satraps.
Secondly, the Nehru Gandhi name alone is not enough to keep the party strong as the electorate is changing fast. People want result-oriented parties and are getting disenchanted with the Congress, which is still clinging to the dynasty.

Thirdly, the character of the party has undergone tremendous changes. Although elections are held for the sake of doing so, it is the nominated culture, which is prevailing in the party with the state units leaving everything to the party president to decide. Top-level bodies like the Parliamentary board is done away with while the Congress Working Committee meets infrequently.

Fourthly, there is no serious effort to build the party at the gross root levels while the ordinary Congressman is bewildered that he has no chances of moving up as paratroopers get in effortlessly through sycophancy and flattery.

Fifthly, the party is heavily depending on the Gandhi family to get them elected. While the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi attract huge crowds, the party is unable to en cash it into votes. There is every need to work hard to win the confidence of the people.

Sixthly, the decline was characterized by the further disintegration of the traditional Congress coalition, with Brahmins and other upper castes defecting to the BJP and Scheduled Castes and Muslims defecting to the Janata Dal, the Samajwadi Party, and the BSP.

The caste based and identity based parties like the BSP and SP have grown to replace the Congress in UP. The Congress has become a poor third or fourth.

Seventhly, the state level leadership has become almost non- existent. People are tired of the same old faces with the result they are unable to enthuse the voters. The party has not brought any new young faces although Rahul Gandhi is leading the team. The party expects too much from the Gandhis to get back to power in UP without doing anything to build the party.

Eighthly, the party is demoralised after being out of power for more than two decades. The Congressmen being used to rule, party building is becoming difficult.

Ninthly, the leadership, constituencies, issues and electoral strategies of political parties have undergone tremendous changes in the past three decades. There is the third generation voter who demands much more and look for alternatives.

Last, money and muscle power play an important role in elections denying the chance to an ordinary worker.

The Congress has the advantage of unchallenged leadership, which the opposition lacks. The old timers feel that the Congress has to look within and do some soul searching to regain its lost glory rather than looking backward and looking for scapegoats. It needs a multi pronged strategy and determination to meet these new challenges. (IPA Service)