The speculation was always idle. The Left lost not because it couldn’t adjust to an overall Rightward shift in Indian politics, but because it betrayed its own promise and followed conservative neoliberal policies on social issues, land and industrial promotion, which belong to the classic agenda of the Right. The Congress cannot really take the credit for toppling the Left. Nor can, even remotely, the BJP. In West Bengal, the credit goes to Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee, and in Kerala, ironically, to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan, who sullied the Left’s reputation by advocating pro-rich policies.

However, the idea that recent developments would work in the BJP’s favour now stands badly discredited by the goings-on in that party. The “party with a difference”, once known for its unity, cohesion and discipline, now presents a sordid picture of disunity, rudderlessness and ugly rivalry between ambitious leaders.

The BJP appeared to have received a boost from its campaign against the United Progressive Alliance government on the issue of corruption. But that gain has now more or less evaporated. Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj has launched a barely disguised attack on her counterpart in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley, accusing him of having inducted into the Karnataka cabinet the notorious Reddy Brothers, who run a huge mining mafia in Karnataka’s Bellary district, near the Andhra border.

The fight between the two top “second generation” leaders of the BJP is now out in the open. However much party president Nitin Gadkari may deny it, the rift is there for all to see. Ms Swaraj didn’t level her charge against Mr Jaitley in a fit of anger. She planned her move and gave an interview to Outlook magazine, which many in the BJP believe is somewhat “soft” on Mr Jaitley despite the unhidden overall sympathies for the Congress in its editorial line.

Ms Swaraj was probably upset that Mr Jaitley has long planted stories in the media stressing her connections with Gali Karunakara Reddy, Gali Janardhana Reddy and B Sriramulu,.

Ms Swaraj was vulnerable on this score because she had contested the Bellary Lok Sabha byelection against Ms Sonia Gandhi with the Reddys’ help in 1999, and repeatedly defended and protected them, indeed literally blessed them, as some well-circulated photographs show. They still call her their “goddess”. But she says she opposed the decision to induct them into the Karnataka cabinet. Yet, Chief Minister BS Yedyurappa, Mr Jaitley, then in charge of Karnataka politics, and BJP president Rajnath Singh decided to give powerful portfolios to them.

Ms Swaraj clearly wants to counter Mr Jaitley’s devious effort to sully her image and pre-empt her from the intra-party competition that will break out for the BJP’s Prime Ministerial nominee in the 2014 elections. But she has been no less devious than her rival and charged him with acting “out of political compulsions”, said to be a nearly Rs 200-crore gift from the Bellary Brothers to various BJP and RSS leaders. However, Ms Swaraj fights shy of demanding the brothers’ dismissal.

Ms Swaraj resents the fact that Mr Jaitley has better political contacts than her inside and outside the BJP, is closer to the RSS, and that Mr Gadkari, a novice to national politics, eats out of his hand. In the BJP’s present alignment, Mr Rajnath Singh seems to be tilting towards her.

The BJP presents a picture of unseemly internal rivalry just as its government in Karnataka, the only one in a Southern state, completes three years, with a terrible record of corruption, nepotism, mismanagement of social sector schemes, and neglect of the poor. It would be a miracle if the BJP, whose power in Karnataka always came from money and venality, is returned to office.

The BJP also seems set to lose power in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where elections are due next year. Its top leaders have performed so poorly there that the people will almost certainly send them packing.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has been in a state of contraction for more than 15 years. It was reduced to just 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2009, compared to 57 at its peak. It’s already resigned to fighting for the third position in UP, which the Congress currently holds, with a respectable tally of 21 Lok Sabha seats. But the BJP might not be able to do that.

The Congress, for its part, hasn’t done a great job of reinvigorating itself in UP. Mr Rahul Gandhi is trying hard to pump some youthful energy into the party, but with embarrassingly limited results. After the poor performance of an overwhelming majority of Congress candidates nominated by him in the Tamil Nadu and Kerala Assembly elections, it’s not clear that he has a real strategy up his sleeve.

Mr Gandhi threw himself behind the farmers’ land-related agitation at Bhatta-Parsaul in Greater Noida in UP. But he wildly claimed that the police had raped many women and killed several people whose burnt bodies and bones were dumped. He couldn’t substantiate the claims.

Mr Gandhi wants the Congress to take on the Bahujan Samaj Party through a limited alliance with Mr Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Kurmi group Apna Dal, and a few local factions. Not everybody in the Congress is confident that this will improve the party’s UP Assembly tally enough for it to return to the Centre in 2014. Some leaders would like the Congress to tie up with the Samajwadi Party in UP to form a much stronger combination.

UP will matter greatly to the United Progressive Alliance because it has been politically weakened in the latest round of Assembly elections. The Congress itself holds less than one-fifth of all Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala. In the remaining Southern state, Andhra Pradesh, it faces a formidable threat from Mr Jaganmohan Reddy’s faction, which has done extremely well in recent by-elections. Worse, the Congress cannot take an unambiguous stand on the Telangana issue, and is likely to lose votes both in that region and outside.

In Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, where non-UPA parties wield power, the Congress can only hope for limited gains. In Maharashtra, its alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party could become shaky. The wily Mr Sharad Pawar is busy cultivating all manner of politicians including Ms Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalithaa and Messrs Jagmohan Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu.

Mr Pawar may only be playing for small stakes: his party, with just nine MPs, is in decline. Age, personality and reputation are not on his side. Yet, he can create trouble for the Congress by insinuating himself as a candidate for the Prime Minister’s position if the UPA is unable to form the government in 2014.

The UPA also carries the stigma of numerous recent scams including 2G, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh Housing Society and IPL. Besides, the burden of inflation on the people is growing, with food prices rising by nearly 10 percent a year, milk by 17.5 percent, vegetables by 12.5 percent, and petrol and LPG by 32 and 13 percent.

Whatever progressive measures the UPA sets out to take, usually following the recommendations of the National Advisory Council—including a food security Bill, creating self-help groups and generating skills through the National Rural Livelihoods Mission, and a less draconian land acquisition Act—are quickly neutralised or undermined by other committees.

On the Public Distribution System, the Planning Commission shocked the Supreme Court and the public conscience by setting the poverty line at a miserably low per capita daily expenditure of Rs 20 in the urban areas and Rs 15 in villages, and thus excluding all those above the line from PDS entitlements.

A big contest is now under way between the votaries of pro-people measures within the UPA, on the one hand, and diehard neoliberals in the finance ministry and Planning Commission, on the other, who would like to drastically reduce state provision of food, education and healthcare, or replace it with cash transfers, the new neoliberal mantra.

This is a dangerous trend. The UPA was returned to power in 2009 because of its promise of inclusive development for the aam aadmi, based on the admission that the normal process of growth isn’t raising poor people’s incomes and reducing disparities.

The UPA seems to be unlearning that lesson. Many within it would like to erase the legacy of Left-of-Centre policies underlying the government’s legitimacy. This is a recipe for losing the plot in 2014 and paving the way for a generalised Rightward political shift, with disastrous consequences. (IPA Service)