The trend began with the Chief Minister’s brother Gurdas Badal and nephew, Manpreet Badal’s parting of company with Akali Dal a few months ago. Both command influence, particularly in some parts of Akali Dal’s stronghold and Badals home turf of Malwa. Then it was the appointment of former Chief Minister Capt. Amarinder Singh as Punjab Congress president.

Despite Sukhbir’s proven record of being an efficient organizer, Badal perhaps realised that his son would not be able to face the twin challenges posed by his brother and nephew and Capt. Amarinder Singh, an acknowledged fighter. He opted for a division of work between him and Sukhbir. He himself took the charge for combating the political challenges and Sukhbir for providing “efficient’ governance. Soft spoken Badal’s 55 years of political experience, his mass base and amiable nature, it was believed, would help the party garner votes.

As the saying goes, there are no permanent friends and permanent enemies in politics. Those confident of their electoral victory do not like to share power with others. But the Akalis and the BJP had joined hands realizing that Punjab’s demographic realities would make it virtually impossible for them to ride to power on their individual strengths. Because of the erosion in the BJP’s urban Hindu base during the Akali-BJP’s five-year rule, the realist in Badal concluded that it would not be feasible to fight the Congress without seeking an alliance with other non-Congress parties. He has, therefore, now expressed his readiness to go in for a tie-up with other non-Congress parties for jointly contesting the 2012 Assembly elections. His preference obviously will be Mayawati’s BSP. Over the years, BSP has lost considerable ground in Punjab. But it will still be a factor in polls as at 29 percent, Punjab has the highest Scheduled Castes population in the country.

“All is well”, the title song of Aamir Khan’s “Three Idiots” operates in reverse in Punjab –an ingenious mind has reframed the song as “All is in well” in Punjab. The unabated anti-incumbency has created this situation in Punjab. The factors responsible for this are not difficult to enumerate.

Despite Sukhbir’s boastful claims that higher tax revenues are helping the government to overcome Punjab’s economic woes, the state economy is virtually on verge of collapse. The government is being run on loans. The state’s debt has jumped by nearly 50 percent to Rs.77,585 crore since 2007-2008. Banks hesitate to give loans to state bodies. Funds for government and local bodies are sought to be mobilized by auctioning their lands. Money given by the Centre is either not being spent for the projects it was given for as the state government is not able to contribute its share or this is diverted for purposes other than these were granted. Because of non-payment of power subsidy, Punjab State Power Corporation faces bankruptcy. Government employees have not been paid their Pay Commission arrears. To press their demands, different sections of the people have been holding demonstrations. Roads are in dilapidated state. A Congress MP and an MLA and sarpanches of 15 villages last week sought alms at roadsides to generate funds for the repair of a major village link road which provides access to 15 villages.

Corruption is rampant at political and administrative levels. Ruling politicians who face corruption cases get acquittal through manipulation. About law and order, the less said the better.

The worst is on the industrial front. Rampant corruption, red tape, cumbersome procedures, high cost of land, poor infrastructure and power shortage have made Punjab an unattractive investment destination. Even non-resident Indians whom the present government had been wooing are now reluctant to invest in Punjab. Peter Sandhu, an Indian industrialist from Canada said at Jalandhar last week “There is a problem related to investment here. We want to invest here but the government system harasses us. This is the reason that we prefer to invest in Gujarat”.

Securing a No Objection Certificate from the State Pollution Control Board, essential for getting power connection, has become a nightmarish experience for the industrialists. Without NOC no new industries can be set up nor can the existing industries function. No doubt, pollution has become one of the biggest problems Pollution Control Boards have to tackle. But the Boards objective should be not to force the existing industries to close down by ordering disconnection of their power supply as is happening in the case of 19 Jalandhar industrial units nor to become a hurdle in setting up new industries. It should provide pollution controlling expertise to the existing industries as also to entrepreneurs planning to set up new industries. As the small and medium industries cannot bear high costs of pollution controlling measures, the government should provide them either financial assistance for the purpose or set up effluent treatment plants for each industrial focal point.

In Punjab’s prevailing dismal scenario, the Akali-BJP rulers can find consolation in two factors. One is the poor state of the Punjab Congress and the shortcomings of some of its top leaders. Despite the anti-incumbency having created an environment conducive for its return to power, Punjab’s main opposition party has still not recovered from its factional fights. The other is the Congress-led UPA government’s image which stands mauled by corruption, high prices and inflation.

Sukhbir says the ruling alliance will rule Punjab for 25 years. His optimism is obviously based on the claimed development of the state and the generous freebies given by the ruling leadership. He should not forget the fate Om Prakash Chautala’s claims of ruling Haryana for 50 years met in the 2005 elections when his INLD with its tally of nine seats could not even get the status of Haryana’s opposition party. Similarly, the unprecedented sops and freebies given by Bhupinder Singh Hooda during 2005-2009 could not secure the Congress a majority in Haryana’s 2009 elections.

At this stage, it is difficult to predict what impact the perceived sense of insecurity among the Punjab’s ruling leaders will have on the Akali-BJP’s electoral fortunes. But there should be no doubt that 2012 will be tough for the Punjab’s ruling alliance. (IPA Service)