Let us enumerate some of the issues partly responsible for pushing the ruling coalition into its unenviable situation.

It will be a repetition to recall the factors behind Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal’s abandoning the coronation of his son Sukhbir Badal as Chief Minister and himself taking over the command of the party’s electoral battle. But it still needs mentioning the two major reasons responsible for the development. One was the dropping from the cabinet and expulsion from the party of his nephew and Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal. It was feared that Manpreet who had since floated Punjab Peoples Party would provide a platform for the disgruntled Akalis denting the ruling party’s support base. This is already happening. The latest instance is the desertion of 29 Kapurthala-based prominent Akali leaders including a former Akali minister Raghbir Singh and eight of the ten SAD Kapurthala councilors and their joining Manpreet’s PPP enabling it to capture Doaba region’s Akali Dal-controlled Kapurthala Nagar Council.

The second reason was Capt. Amarinder Singh’s appointment as Punjab Congress President. Badal realized that his son would not be able to face the twin challenges posed by Manpreet and Amarinder Singh.

Badal’s declaration that the Akali Dal was open to an alliance with all “like-minded parties” to defeat the Congress was the first sign of the party leadership’s lack of confidence about its capability to win the elections on its own. Badal seems to be convinced that the BJP who had won 19 seats in 2007 helping the ruling allies to ride to power would not be able to repeat its 2005 performance because of the deep erosion in its support base. His offer to have an alliance with the BSP has, however, been spurned by the state BSP chief’s declaration that his party would go it alone in the elections.

The second instance reflecting the ruling leadership’s sense of insecurity is its attempt to acquire control of the Punjab Public Service Commission by managing to have a majority of its supporters in the PPSC. Presently the PPSC is dominated by the Congress Government-appointed members. As a first step, the Akali-BJP government nominated the Akali Dal’s Ludhiana (West) MLA Harish Rai Dhanda as Commission’s new Chairman in place of Capt. Amarinder Singh’s appointee S.K.Sinha, a bureaucrat, who died recently. But because of the eleventh hour legal hurdle, Dhanda’s swearing could not take place. Two of the Commission’s Congress government appointees will retire by December. The Badal government plans to increase the PPSC strength from seven to ten. With the appointment of three more of its loyalists who will have six year tenure, the Akali-BJP government can hope to acquire a majority of its loyalists in the PPSC. This would help the party to get its nominees selected for important government posts in the event of the coalition failing to win the Assembly elections.

Some other actions of Akali leaders also betray their nervousness. One is their attempts, obviously in the hope of securing their support in the elections, to cultivate chiefs of Punjab’s deras including the Sirsa-based dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh whom the Akal Takht had declared a persona-non-grata for the Sikhs.

Second is the unaesthetic race among the ministers to have their pictures, especially of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh, painted on the equipments like Ambulances provided to Punjab under the Centrally-funded schemes. Now Laxmi Kanta Chawla is also getting her pictures painted on thousands of bicycles her department has decided to provide free to girl students in the state.

Third is the intensification by the Chief Minister of his tirade against the Congress-led UPA government for allegedly discriminating against Punjab, particularly in matters of providing funds. It is another matter that the funds already provided by the Centre for various developmental schemes either remain unspent or diverted to the state government’s funds-starved schemes. Badal’s anti-New Delhi tirade is obviously an attempt to divert the Punjabis attention from the Akali-BJP government’s failures.

Fourth is the growing disgruntlement of the urbanites who feel being discriminated against by the Akali-BJP government while it is showering favours on the ruralites.

What is worse is the violation of the unwritten code of conduct for his apolitical constitutional office by the Punjab Assembly Speaker Nirmal Singh Kahlon who is facing corruption cases. Addressing a public function at village Bhagowal khurd of Gurdaspur district last week he castigated the Congress-led UPA government’s policies and eulogized the Akali-BJP government claiming that the ruling alliance would return to power.

The sole consolation the Akali Dal can have in such a dismal situation is that the Congress is also not in the pink of health. There has been no meeting of hearts between many of its state-level and district-level leaders. The party’s promised mass contact campaign is yet to take roots. Despite the earlier claims, Capt. Amarinder Singh is still not easily accessible to party workers, the latest instance being the disallowing of the large number of party workers who had flocked to the PCC office last week from meeting Amarinder Singh.

The biggest problem Congress would face in the elections will be the division of the anti-Akali votes. Despite the Left parties vastly eroded base in Punjab, the proposed joint front of Manpreet’s Punjab People Party and the Left will make a dent in both the Akali Dal and Congress vote banks. If, and it is a big IF, the front is able secure a respectable number of seats, neither the Akali Dal nor the Congress would be able to realize their dreams of capturing power in Punjab on their own.

Though it is too early to predict but if this happens, then one cannot rule out the possibility of Punjab having a hung Assembly. (IPA Service)