The three-day fast for unity, harmony and welfare, should serve his objective in two steps. In the first place is victory in the forthcoming state assembly elections. By winning for the BJP an electoral victory for the fifth time, which he has to ensure, he becomes claimant for the topmost status – the main Opposition party’s prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 national elections. The target that Modi has to fulfil is not only electoral victory in the state assembly elections, but victory by a very large margin. His purpose may not be served if he is partially mauled in the state assembly elections and is able to win only by a very thin margin.

Modi hopes to attain this first forward leap and then move on to the national arena, to claim being the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. In the first place, the sadbhavana fast is meant to serve Mr Modi’s objective vis-à-vis the state – by consolidating his developmental attainments, and enlarging his area of influence among the riot-affected Muslims. Flexibility being his special virtue, the Modi gathering went to the extent of raising slogans of Allah-o-Akbar, along with Narendra Modi zindabad. Muslim businessmen were given special status in the gathering to felicitate Modi for his fast. The slogans of course cost Mr Modi not a penny and brought no solace to the thousands rotting in the riot victim ghettos. But Modi feels sure that his fast, giving the feel of self-purification, will not only consolidate his electoral base but will enlarge it.

Let us presume that Mr Modi succeeds in his first objective – and wins the state assembly elections. Will he be assured of being the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 general elections? What might be the consequence for the BJP, and the impact of such a development on the national political landscape?

The presumption that Modi will necessarily become the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate is full of doubts. The first hurdle: the barrier of other BJP aspirants itself. Mr Modi will face difficulties if there is hostility from NDA partners. This is likely from the main BJP partner, Nitish Kumar and the JD(U). This is already indicated by the JD(U) leader, Sharad Yadav’s statement and Nitish Kumar’s absence from the Modi fast mela. Should there be an attempt to declare Modi as the BJP’s PM candidate even if other NDA partners do not accede, there will certainly be a skirmish within the party. Mr L.K. Advani views the 2014 general elections as his last chance to ascend the prime ministerial gaddi. His hopes have been rising thanks to the UPA governmental bungling and mass resentment over corruption. He may not find it opportune to articulate this proposition at the present juncture, but there need be no doubt that if a suitable opportunity comes, Mr Advani will project his claim.

What then might be the national political impact if Mr Modi emerges as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 general elections? What will be the shape of India and the world in the two years ahead is difficult to comprehend. Even so, one can calculate – based on the capabilities and the failings of Mr Modi in relation to modern realities.

When all is said and done, despite Mr Modi’s effort for a turnaround and complete face make over, the Gujarat strongman will not be able to sweep away the stigmas and severe taints of 2002 and subsequent years. The latest is Mallika Sarabhai’s disclosure – backed by the testimony of a top Gujarat cop – of Modi’s bid to bribe her lawyer to the tune of Rs 10 lakhs from his exclusive funds to weaken her court case against him. The biggest stigma pertaining to the 2002 riots is still encompassed in the Muslim ghettos where over 20,000 riot-victims are huddled together. Despite his new found secularist make over, he is by no means apologetic of his handling of the 2002riots. Last but not the least is the Lok Ayukta threat that hangs over his head, threatening to undo much of his claims of a corruption-free rule in Gujarat.

In the scenario that presently prevails, Mr Modi’s impact on the BJP electoral fortunes may turn out to be a set-back – perhaps a fiasco. The Indian electoral picture bears a contrast to the Gujarat lay-out. For large part – with the exception of a small belt – Modi presence as prime ministerial candidate will serve to polarise the electorate to the disadvantage of the BJP. His administrative and claimed developmental attainments in Gujarat have only a limited electoral appeal on a national scale.

And so too is his politics. The kind of political campaigning he performed in the elections in Gujarat – ‘hum dow (two) hamarey 25, etc – will be repelling. Mr Modi has no bigger comprehension of Indian and global developments than the Hindutva viewpoint. Should he abandon this? And if he abandons Hindutva, he may be without an alternative vision. The balance-sheet of Modi’s national appeal will be disappointing. In the circumstances, Mr Modi will do well to stay-put in his Gujarat stronghold. Let him not be swayed by imaginary Rahul versus Modi contests. Better count the chickens in hand rather than pine for imaginary fortunes. This should be Mr Modi’s motto. (IPA Service)