Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself raised doubts about the mid term poll recently while returning from the US talking to the media accompanying him. Singh accused the Opposition of getting 'prematurely restless' and asked them to be patient and blamed the BJP particularly for trying to destabilize his government. The BJP, though speculating about the mid term poll for some time hit back at the PM claiming that it had neither the number nor the inclination to bring down the government.

How could a mid term poll take place unless the government falls on its own weight or the opposition brings it down? The first could be when a UPA ally pulls out of the coalition reducing it to a minority.

There are two big groups – the DMK and the Trinamool Congress-which could bring about this. While the DMK is upset with the UPA for not helping with the release of DMK chief Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi from the Tihar jail on the 2G scam, the TMC – Congress strain has also started. The way in which the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee refused to agree for the Teesta agreement with Bangladesh during the recent Prime Minister’s visit to Dhaka is one example. The Congress could get the support of others like the Samajwadi Party and smaller groups to bridge the gap but there is a problem if the mid term polls were to take place before the UP elections. Neither the SP nor the BSP would support the Congress as they are rivals in the state. If both the DMK and NCP pull out, it will be difficult for the government to get the number.

The second possibility is that the UPA government could decide to go for fresh polls, which is a little far fetched. The high inflation affecting the lives of the common masses as also emergence of leaders like Anna Hazare and Ramdev do not auger well for the Congress. The UPA is almost in intensive care unit as of now. The Congress is not sure when Rahul Gandhi will be ready to take over. There is fight in the top echelons of the government as was seen between the two top ministers Pranab Mukherjee and P. Chidambaram on the 2G note.

The relationship within the UPA too is not very good with the strained relationship between the Congress and the DMK on one hand and TMC on the other. The NCP too is not very happy. Secondly, no one is ready to face polls again. Even if the Congress may opt for a mid term poll, the allies are not very enthusiastic about it. In such a situation, how would the Congress think of a mid term poll?

When the opposition does not have the numbers to bring down the government why should the BJP be speculating about a mid term polls for months? BJP leader L.K. Advani has been talking about it for a while and so has the BJP chief Nitin Gadkari. In the recent BJP national executive, Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj asked the party to be ready to face polls. Is the BJP trying to keep the Congress on tenterhooks?

Is the BJP ready to face mid term polls? Going by the way the top rung leaders are fighting among themselves, it does not appear to be so. There are half a dozen prime ministerial candidates including L.K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari and the latest to add to the list is the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi.

Secondly, there are cracks within the NDA. When Modi’s name was floated for the prime ministerial candidate, its main ally JD (U) was the first to oppose. Now that Advani proposes to start his Rath yatra from Bihar, Modi is peeved about it. The NDA has shrunk form a coalition of 24 parties to just four. The Punjab elections are also going to be a test for the NDA. Should it not concentrate on the ensuing Assembly polls to half a dozen states including U.P and Gujarat?

What about the left parties? From the position of a strong supporter of the UPA 1, today it is weak and struggling. The CPI(M) is particularly on the slide after losing the two important states like West Bengal and Kerala. The left parties are in the process of taking corrective measures and until this is done, their vote bank may not be in a comfortable position.

On the other hand, it is the regional satraps like AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, BJD president Naveen Patnaik, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar who are stronger. If there is a mid term poll, it is these regional leaders who are expected to do well.

A probable prediction would be that in the present scenario, it might not be advantageous to the Congress or the BJP if mid term polls were held now. However, if things go out of hand and mid term polls were foisted on the country, there could be a regrouping of non Congress, non BJP parties and they could form a coalition with the support of either the Congress or the BJP. In any case, this kind of coalition had come together to rule the country in 1977, 1989 and 1996. The fear is that even if it takes shape, it may not last long as it had happened earlier. (IPA Service)