The towering BJP leader, Mr L K Advani, with all his well-articulated thunder against the UPA and the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh as the most “ineffective” head of Government, cannot resuscitate the erstwhile National Democratic Alliance, as some of the more secular-minded partners now prefer to remain distant from the avidly pro-Hindu BJP leaders like Mr Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat. (Mr Modi is one, perhaps leading, among the party’s relatively younger Prime Ministerial aspirants while the most senior Mr Advani seems constrained in advancing his rightful claim by RSS.).

Nor is there a likelihood of emergence of a non-Congress, non-BJP third front in the near future to give a fight to UPA, however much it is disliked by the Left and other parties for its socially-destabilising economic policies, especially failure to control continuing rise in prices. Meanwhile Mr. Advani, in his proposed ‘yatra’ hopes to mobilise opinion against UPA, “the worst corrupt government”, which had failed on all fronts, as he puts it.

Here again, the social activist Mr Anna Hazare has already electrified the country by his anti-corruption fasts, drawing the widest middle class appeal, and successfully held the UPA Government to ransom over his conditions for a tough Lok Pal legislation. He claims to be apolitical but the RSS “actively participated” in Anna Hazare campaign, as admitted by its chief Mr Mohan Bhagwat while BJP tried to make as much political capital out of it as possible.

Mr Hazare has issued an ultimatum to government that if Parliament does not vote his brand of Lok Pal bill in the winter session, he would campaign against the Congress in all the forthcoming state elections, beginning with a Haryana by-poll on October 13. The blunt Mr Hazare is no respecter of Parliamentary procedures but the Congress leadership has to take note of his potential for damage to its prospects, in the light of recent experience. A UPA Government spokesman has denounced such tactics saying they are committed to a tough Lok Pal bill, being enacted in the winter session, once the Standing Committee, which would take into account Mr Hazare’s suggestions, passed on to it by Parliament, presents its report in time.

But let alone the issue of corruption, there are far too many complex issues before Government to resolve and above all, lift the cloud of policy paralysis over it. It is against this murky background and the most recent unedifying spectacle of two senior ministers being at loggerheads over 2G scam, that the veteran Congress leader and Finance Minister Mr Pranab Mukherjee, chose to make two weighty pronouncements, one, on Mr. Rahul Gandhi as “our future leader”. Second, he firmly said that the differences between him and Home Minister Mr Chidambaram, had now become a “closed chapter”, as was shown up by the two Ministers' joint appearance before the media the other day. It was the intervention of Ms. Sonia Gandhi that brought them face to face to settle the matter and prevent further damage to Congress.

Though Mr Rahul Gandhi has long been seen as the one to lead the Congress into the next elections to the Lok Sabha in 2014 and if successful, become the Prime Minister, Mr. Mukherjee’s authoritative statement has lent considerable political significance at a time when UPA Government is assailed on all fronts, and both BJP and Mr Hazare, whose activism could well turn more anarchic, are training their guns at the Congress. As trouble shooter-in- chief of the Congress, Mr Mukherjee timed his Dussehra-eve announcement setting his party’s sights for the future, from his ancestral home in West Bengal.

Mr Mukherjee has no doubt played down attempts to project UPA as a “house divided” and said Government “is in command of things” and that there is “strong leadership provided by Dr Manmohan Singh”. The opposition, especially BJP and Left and others, would continue their corruption tirade against UPA until the Supreme Court has finally given its verdict at the end of its prolonged hearings on 2G scam. What political fall-out it may carry remains to be seen.

Since the Congress, despite successive shocks, may still feel sure of holding on to power till 2014, its credibility has first to be re-established not only at home but abroad as well, given its prime need of investment flows, especially for infrastructure. This in turn would call for a drastic overhaul of its image and advancing feasible policy options and key reforms in the financial and regulatory sectors. Mr Mukherjee would be hoping to secure political consensus for at least a few of major reforms.

The winter session, heavily loaded with major laws for enactment, would be tough and challenging especially if BJP resumes its obstructionist tactics and disables Government in getting through with what it regards as the most urgent of bills. Short of a dramatic turnaround in its functional character, UPA-II would continue to be mired in intractable problems for months ahead even if it is able to stave off an early dissolution of Parliament.

A slowing inflation-gripped economy, fiscal over-run and widening current account deficits is hardly an environment for business confidence and investment revival so that the country's sovereign credit rating is at risk from one of the credit rating agencies. Having remained a mute spectator to inflation for over two and a half years, Government has now begun borrowing more to cover expenditure. This hardly helps inflation management on the monetary side.

Politically, UPA-II has to start afresh on a clean slate, presenting itself as a cohesive force for effective governance, work out solutions on some of the volatile issues like Telengana, and determine afresh its priorities for the twenty months of office left before facing the electorate in 2014. The countdown has begun for state elections in 2012 and UPA would be certainly looking for some signs of comfort, especially in UP where Mr Rahul Gandhi is in charge of the campaign. Ms. Sonia Gandhi, back after six weeks abroad for surgery and recovery, is already overseeing the process of selection of party candidates for the UP poll early next year. (IPA Service)