After some senior leaders of the Indian National Lok Dal(INLD), Haryana Janhit Congress(HJC) and the BJP crossed over to the Congress recently, these parties have been plagued by breakup of their alliances when only six weeks are left for the poll scheduled for October 13.

First it was the eight-month-old INLD-BJP alliance which split two months ago. Then came the parting of ways between the BSP and the HJC, which had formed an alliance at Lucknow on June 18 this year.

BJP and INLD have been maintaining a love-hate relationship for long. In 1996, there was a strong move for forming a BJP-INLD alliance for contesting the state assembly elections. But some BJP leaders, particularly Sushma Swaraj, ensured that the party joined hands with Bansi Lal's Haryana Vikas Party(HVP). The combine won the elections and formed the Government.

The BJP severed its alliance with HVP in 1999 to join hands with Chautala, who, helped by some HVP rebels, toppled Bansi Lal and formed an alliance Government. But it did not take long for the BJP to part ways with Chautala because of the latter's allegedly shabby treatment of the BJP leaders. This resulted in the two parties contesting the 2004 Lok Sabha polls and 2005 assembly elections separately.

The basic reason for this love-hate relationship is that while the INLD has a rural and Jat-dominated support base, the BJP is urban based. In Haryana's caste-ridden society, the economic and social interests of the two vote banks clash. Although a large chunk of the INLD's Jat support base has been wrested by the Congress, BJP has almost lost its urban base. In last year's three assembly by-elections, the party's candidates together polled a paltry 10,000 votes.

Despite such realities of Haryana politics, it was L K Advani's eagerness to win over the regional parties to fulfill his prime ministerial ambitions which again led to the forging of an alliance with the INLD overruling the opposition of the Haryana unit of the BJP. The two parties contested five seats each but failed to win any. The opposition of the state BJP leaders to keeping the company of Chautala and the central leadership's review of the situation prompted the party to again part ways with the INLD.

As for the HJC-BSP alliance, the two parties had taken potshots at each other before the Lok Sabha elections. Contesting separately, they performed poorly in the elections. Only Bhajan Lal won his home seat of Hisar with a small margin of 7,000 votes. BSP, which hoped to gain from Mayawati's declaration as a prime ministerial hopeful, drew a blank. They, however, performed better than the BJP and INLD. While the two won seven segments each, the HJC and BSP fighting separately led in nine and eight segments respectively. This, coupled with Mayawati's electoral setbacks and hope of improving their electoral performance in the assembly elections had prompted them to form an alliance.

The main reason for the breakup of this alliance was the HJC move to make the BJP the alliance's third partner and give it 30 seats out of the HJC-BSP quota of 50:40 seats(18 from HJC and 12 from BSP quota). The BSP resisted this move as it said it could not join hands with a communal party like the BJP. There is now a possibility that the HJC and the BJP may form an alliance.

That the Haryana opposition parties have been in poor health is indisputable. Their performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, 2005 assembly elections, the assembly by-elections held thereafter and the 2009 LS elections was dismal. They lost nine out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats to the Congress in both the 2004 and the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. INLD and BJP cold only win nine and two seats respectively in the 90-member assembly in 2005.

Till a few months ago, the ruling Congress was also not in robust health. Some senior ministers, particularly Finance Minister Birender Singh often publicly took potshots at Chief Minister Hooda. Tourism and Forests Minister Kiran Chaudhry, daughter-in-law of the late Chief Minister Bansi Lal, had also made attempts to erode the CM's authority. Hooda had divested her of the Environment portfolio. But using her contacts with the party high-ups, she got the department back within 24 hours.

Calm has, however, descended on the ruling party with the Chief Minister's detractors also extending their support to his decision on early elections, otherwise due in February 2010.

Haryana's latest developments and the poor state of the Opposition parties do not augur well for them and will be advantageous to the ruling party.(IPA)