Hisar’s outcome raises two important questions. Will it prove to be a turning point in state’s politics and the electoral fortunes of the mainstream parties in future electoral battles? Does it have any implication for the anti-corruption campaign of Anna Hazare who had asked Hisar voters to vote against the Congress and some of whose Team members campaigned against the ruling party’s candidate?

First to dwell on the causes that led to the Congress debacle.

It will be wrong to blame Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s detractors for the party candidate Jaya Parkash’s defeat though they might have contributed to his losing the security deposit by opposing him in their limited areas of influence.

The major factor for the Congress defeat is the alienation of large sections of Jats and non-Jats from the ruling party. The byelection saw caste polarisation with the Jats overwhelmingly supporting Om Parkash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal candidate Ajay Chautala while large sections of non-Jats moving away from the Congress and voting for Haryana Jan Hit Congress-BJP alliance nominee Kuldip Bishnoi.

In the 2005 Assembly elections, Jats had switched over their loyalties from the INLD to the Congress resulting in the former’s rout when the party could get only nine seats in the 90-member House. Jats later started going back to the INLD fold as reflected by the outcome of the prematurely held 2009 Assembly elections resulting in the party’s tally going up from nine to 31 MLAs. The Hisar byelection’s outcome has shown that the Congress had further lost its Jat support base to the INLD.

On the other hand, because of Hooda’s pro-Jats image, rightly or wrongly created by his policies, prompted large sections of non-Jats to distance themselves from the ruling party. As they were opposed to the Jat-dominated Chautala’s INLD, they found in the HJC-BJP an alternate platform to shift their loyalties to.

No doubt, the sympathy factor of Bhajan Lal whose death caused the byelection also favoured his son Bishnoi. Hooda was not wide of the mark when he said that caste politics, voters’ anger against inflation and the sympathy wave for Bhajan Lal led to the Congress debacle in Hisar. Perhaps a more important cause for the debacle was the rising anti-incumbency sentiment which was first reflected by the Congress’s failure to get its own majority in the 2009 state Assembly elections.

The crucial question now is: Will the INLD and the HJC-BJP be able to consolidate and expand their Hisar gains for their future electoral battles? If the ruling party does not radically change its policies in Haryana and the image of the UPA government, tarnished by the series of scams, does not improve, the INLD will be able to extend its Hisar gain for its future electoral battles.

On the other hand, Bishnoi’s poor past political record and the absence of an effective and popular state-level BJP leadership raise a question mark on the alliance’s capability to consolidate and expand its Hisar gains, except perhaps in Adampur, where a by poll will be held following Bishnoi’s election to Lok Sabha.

While the outcome of the Hisar byelection has its implications for Haryana politics, it is its use by Anna Hazare and his Team for dabbling in partisan politics which has given it national importance.

Team Anna’s claim that its anti-Congress campaign has influenced Hisar’s outcome is an illusion of an ignorant mind unaware of the ground situations and political realities fondly nurses. In fact, their anti-Congress tirade has harmed Anna’s cause. This happens when social and non-political issues are given political colour as had happened in Baba Ram Dev’s case. Although the adverse reaction later forced him to backtrack, it was his announcement to launch a political party which triggered his decline.

Anna’s anti-corruption campaign and pressure on the Centre to pass a tough Jan Lok Pal had aroused tremendous popular response. His call to Hisar voters to vote against the Congress and the actions of some of his Team members, particularly of the Haryana’s native Arvind Kejriwal’s apparent political ambitions coupled with his infamous “above Parliament” statement, have created suspicions about the non-political character of the Team’s cause. Besides, the Team Anna’s prominent activist Kiran Bedi’s fudging her airfare invoices has also damaged the credibility of the Anna activists and of the cause he is fighting for. Bedi’s argument that by claiming higher air fares she wanted to help the causes her NGO is fighting for is unconvincing. If her stand gets legitimacy, it would amount to justification, for example, of politicians accepting black money from big industrialists and black marketers for “serving” the people by getting elected to legislatures.

Thanks to his Hisar blunder, it is doubtful if Anna will, in future, be able to again draw the same level of massive crowds as he did when he had launched his campaign for a strong Jan Lok Pal for fighting corruption. The UPA government can have consolation from the fact that it has taken Anna and his Team a single faulty step of dabbling in politics in Hisar for denting his otherwise popular anti-corruption cause and damage his Team’s credentials. (IPA Service)