Of the three, Maharashtra is a big state with 48 Lok Sabha seats while Haryana is smaller with ten seats and Arunachal a tiny state with just two seats. The Congress- NCP combine had put up a good show in the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra and the Congress had been a winner in Haryana and Arunachal too. With the opposition in total disarray at the national level as well as in these states, the Congress tends to be complacent and confident of retaining these states.

The Congress has to be wary of a few things. The first is to guard against complacency and over confidence. The recent by-election results have not been very good for the party. . The second is to ensure proper working of the alliance at the gross-root level. The third is to make sure the opposition is not united. The fourth is the internal sabotage, which the Congress always struggles to meet. The fifth is the rebel factor. The sixth is groupism and factionalism which adversely affects the election results.

Nothing much has changed for the BJP since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls as the leadership crisis continues at the national level and may remain until December when the new team takes over. The by-election results have cheered the party enormously showing that even though there is fight at the top, it had not reflected the party at the gross-root level. All that the BJP has to do is to make sure there are no more controversies. The party is focussed on improving its position.

In Maharashtra, the Congress- NCP combine has arrived at a last-minute seat-sharing pact. The negotiations are a proof of the party's delicate handling of its coalition partners. The Congress, after the good showing in the Lok Sabha polls was flexing its muscles while the NCP was bargaining hard but both needed each other. The DMK in the South and the Trinamool Congress in the East are closely watching it.

For NCP chief Sharad Pawar, it is a do-or-die battle. If his party fails, some leaders may move to the Congress. Already there are demands for a merger with the Congress from both the NCP and the Congress. Going by the 2009 Lok Sabha poll results the Congress- NCP combine should do better than the Shiv Sena - BJP front as the newly formed outfit of Raj Thackeray MNS had damaged the Sena- BJP chances.

Things are not good for the BJP in Maharashtra. The State BJP president Nitin Ghatkari is at loggerheads with Gopinath Munde, who has a better equation with both the RSS and the Sena. The crisis at the BJP's national level may add to the confusion of the voters. In any case the BJP is the junior partner and has to play second fiddle to Sena.

If the MNS is the spoiler for the Sena - BJP, the newly formed Third Front consisting of the Dalit groups, CPI, CPI-M, Samajwadi Party and others may damage the Congress. Despite all these, the expectation is that the Congress- NCP may retain the state perhaps with a narrow margin. In a worst-case scenario independents may come to its rescue. The difference between the Congress-NCP combine and the Sena-BJP front was quite narrow in the last polls. If the Congress fields the right candidates it can ensure victory. Insiders point out that learning from Andhra Pradesh strongman Dr.Y.S.Rajashekhara Reddy's sudden death, the Congress high command does not want to put all its eggs in one basket and create more Jagan Mohan Reddys. The party has wisely kept the choice of the next chief minister open.

In Haryana, the Congress is strong while the opposition is divided and in total disarray. The anti-incumbency factor is not working. Also, Chief Minister Hooda delivered as the party bagged nine out of ten Lok Sabha seats in 2009 polls. The efforts of the opposition to come together did not materialise resulting in a multi-cornered contest. The former chief minister Chautala heading the Indian National Lok Dal has lost credibility and INLD has not won a single seat in either the 2004 or the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP is weak and suffers from lack of local leadership. The BJP's efforts for alliance with the other smaller parties had also failed. Kuldeep Bishnoi, former Deputy Chief Minister and son of Bhajan Lal floated his own outfit Haryana Janhit Congress some 18 months ago. His party did well in three by-elections and won Hissar in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. There have been large-scale desertions from his party as he has failed to translate this goodwill into a solid support base. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which is trying to find a foothold, surprised everyone by increasing its vote share from 4.94 per cent in 2004 polls to 15. 73 per cent in 2009 polls but it continues to remain a spoiler.

As far as tiny Arunachal is concerned, the Congress is in an advantageous position as there is no opposition. Although the BJP too has acquired a foothold in the last few years, it is still weak. There was a time when the both the Arunachal MPs belonged to the BJP. But now the Congress has both. The BJP lacks credible leaders or allies at the local level.

Overall, the atmosphere is in favour of the Congress and its allies. And, in all probability, it should retain all the three states. However, the party should guard against complacency and internal sabotage which might tilt the balance. (IPA)