Both at the state and national levels, Gujarat election is an ‘Agni Pariksha’ for Modi. On his part, he has pitched his vociferous poll campaign as a referendum on his leadership in 2014 general elections. Even top BJP leaders, including L K Advani and Sushma Swaraj, have backed his candidature for the top executive post.

A victory for Modi was never in doubt but, according to reports received from Gujarat, his walk to victory, this time, may not be a cakewalk. He faces a formidable challenge in Saurashtra and from his predecessor Keshubhai Patel, said to be unquestioned leader of the powerful Leuva community. Saurashtra alone accounts for 52 of 87 seats, which went to poll in the first phase. In the second phase, election was scheduled to be held in 95 constituencies. Modi, however, is on much firmer ground in South Gujarat, where widespread dissidence has left the Congress in disarray.

Apart from the GPP’s electoral debut, Saurashtra this year saw its first drought since Modi’s ascendency to power, leading to acute water and power shortage and economic distress. The temple town of Somnath, from where L K Advani started his Ram Jnambhoomi yatra in 1990 gets water once in eight days. The situation has created fertile ground for anti-incumbency, working to Keshubhai’s advantage.

Apparently, avoiding any risk, Modi set aside his celebrated no repeat theory and gave tickets to most of the sitting MLAs despite strong anti-incumbency lest they switch over to Keshubhai’s party. The BJP even objected to the GPP getting a cricket bat as election symbol.

Unlike previous elections, which were mostly two-cornered — BJP versus Congress — this time in most of the constituencies, it was a triangular battle between the BJP, the Congress and Keshubhai’s newly formed Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP).

As a matter of fact Keshubhai holds the key to Modi’s success. He may spoil Modi’s chance of retaining 117 seats he held in the dissolved house. It is worth recalling that large Muslim turn out in 2002 election resulted in a Hindu backlash that helped the BJP return with massive victory. Their reduced voting percentage in 2007 curtailed a majority polarisation — slashing the BJP tally from 127 to 117.

Now chances of even retaining that figure appear doubtful for the ruling BJP. Indications are that Modi may get a majority, or even a working majority, but no a massive mandate to pitchfork him to the national scene. That will mean his claim to be named BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014 general election will be dashed to the ground.

The campaigning in Gujarat election has been brisk with the participation of both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. Modi was the star campaigner for his party and took on both Sonia and Rahul. Modi invoked lord Ram, besides comparing New Delhi to a Sultanate and dubbing Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary, Ahmed Patel and “Mian Ahmed Patel”, which was once reserved for Gen. Musharraf.

There was no reference to the post-Godhra anti-Muslim riots by the BJP or the Congress campaigners. The dreadful past out of electioneering so much so that Prime Minister’s innocuous lament seemed a little excessive. It gave Modi an excuse to embarrass the Congress by referring to Assam riots.

Modi came under criticism by not fielding even a single Muslim candidate even though the Muslim population in Gujarat is 9.5 per percent. On its part, the Congress fielded seven Muslim candidates. The Congress workers were active in 40-odd constituencies where Muslims accounted for 11 to 59 per cent. Significantly, clerks and Maulanas were not allowed in canvassing. Even cricketer turned politician, Azharuddin, was sparingly used.

Having not fielded even a single Muslim candidate, Modi made a feeble attempt to placate the minority community by sharing dias with cricketer Iran Pathan in Kheda district. Pathan, which is currently out of action, comes from Vadodara. Though he waved at the audience during the election meeting, he did not address the spectators. BJP leaders explained that Irfan came over as he is a fan of Modi and his developmental work. In Communally sensitive Gujarat, no Muslim leader was asked to hold a public meeting for the BJP.

Kheda is a traditionally Congress stronghold, and the district has seven assembly segments. Congress leader Shankarsinh Vaghela is contesting from Kapadvang, which has sizeable Muslim population. (IPA Service)