Till a few weeks ago the political scales seemed to be tilting against the Congress. The opposition had been on the offensive. Former chief minister Om Parkash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal and the alliance of late Bhajan Lal’s son Kuldeep Vishnoi-led Hayana Jan Hit Congress and BJP organized massive rallies demonstrating their strong presence in the caste-ridden Haryana’s Jat and non-Jat vote banks.

It was generally believed the trend of large turnouts at the opposition’s rallies, if continued, would dent the Congress’s support bases in the two communities. The degree of the ruling party’s support in the two communities has been varying. For instance, in 2005 Assembly elections, the party made deep inroads into INLD’s Jat vote bank. As a result, the INLD could win only nine seats in the 90-member Assembly denying the former ruling party the status of being the Assembly’s opposition party and its leader Chautala as the Opposition leader. But in the prematurely held 2009 elections, the INLD regained a substantial share of its lost Jat vote bank from the Congress which raised its strength in the House from nine to 31.

Apart from any dent in the ruling Congress’s support in the two communities in the event of the opposition continuing to get massive support, what was expected to further add to the its miseries was the anti-Congress sentiment prevailing in the country due to the rising cost of essential commodities and increases being effected in various levies and taxes. Apart from these factors, the anti-incumbency sentiment in Haryana would also work against the ruling party in the state.

Misfortunes, it is said, do not come alone. This is true in the case of both the INLD and the HJC-BJP allies. This is indicated by the last fortnight’s two developments. First it was the rejection on January 13 by the Haryana Assembly Speaker Kuldeep Sharma of Kuldeep Bishnoi’s petition demanding disqualification of the five HJC MLAs who, he claimed, had defected from the parent party to join the Congress after the prematurely-held 2009 Assembly elections thereby giving the Congress its own majority in the House. The Speaker upheld the five MLAs stand that being over three-fourth of the party’s six-member strength in the House their decision to merge HJC with the Congress was unchallengeable. Sharma’s decision has put a question mark on HJC’s validity as a recognized political party. This may affect the party’s potential to expand its support base.

About the HJC’s ally BJP, the less said the better. With its support having been already deeply dented over the past few years, the party stands marginalized in the state’s political and electoral map. Like a chameleon it has been changing its alliance partners. There has hardly been any party with which it did not form an alliance and kept company for long. Sullying of the party’s national image caused by electoral reverses and revolts in some states, corruption charges against some of its senior leaders and their power tussles will further affect its Haryana unit’s capabilities to rejuvenate.

Misfortunes of the Haryana’s main opposition party INLD have begun with a Delhi court convicting Om Parkash Chautala, his son INLD’s general secretary Ajay Chautala and party’s two key functionaries besides over 50 others in the over 3,200 JBT teachers recruitment scam. They were put behind the bars on charges of criminal conspiracy, cheating and forgery.

Misfortunes may also visit Chautalas in two more criminal cases. In one case the senior Chautala and his two sons Ajay and Abhey Chautala, both MLAs, are undergoing trial in a Delhi court in the disproportionate assets cases registered against them by the CBI. In the second case, Chautala senior and the state INLD president Ashok Arora are accused for nominating ineligible candidates to the prestigious Haryana Civil Service (HCS).

The Chautalas have and will claim that they have not indulged in corruption in the CBI launched cases against them. But one cannot forget the reports that used to circulate in Haryana civil secretariat corridors during the 2000-2005 Chautala government days about corruption and irregularities being committed in recruitment of government employees and large-scale land grabbing.

Chief Minister Bhupidner Singh Hooda must thank his stars for showing farsightedness by referring cases against the Chaualas to the CBI. If these had been referred to the state Vigilance Bureau he would have invited charge of political vendetta against the Chautalas.

The above developments are going to shape the direction of Haryana politics in the run-up to the 2014 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Adverse verdicts in the cases against the Chautalas are bound to create problems for the INLD. If they are sentenced for longer periods, they would become ineligible to contest the elections. It would also create vacuum in the party leadership which no other leader seems to be capable to fill in.

On the other hand, the Haryana Speaker’s verdict in the HJC’s five MLAs case has created uncertainties about the party’s future status, which would affect the HJC-BJP’s 2014 electoral fortunes. If these perceptions turn out to be correct it would help the Congress in Haryana in its fight against the opposition in 2014. The situation will also prove advantageous for the party if it is able to effectively implement its Jaipur Chintan Shivir’s decisions, particularly regarding wooing the rising middle class. The main problem the ruling party will face will be anti-incumbency. On how it would meet this challenge will determine its electoral fortunes.(IPA Service)